World in Flames: Day 923 - Special Edition: What Would Poland Do? (WWPD?)

Day 923, 23:29 Published in USA USA by Cecil Knight



Introducing Knight News: World in Flames - 7th edition
See World in Flames in Chinese! - (Yesterday's Article).

I'll say it here: I am human, I don't have inner access to the inner workings of either alliance, so I could be wrong. If I'm not sure what is going on, I usually preface it with the word “guess” or “i don't know.” Anyway the disclaimer is over.

Despite my personal affiliations, I try my best to keep my analysis as neutral and unbiased as I can.



I've spoken briefly with Mainegreen, and he's given me permission to use his symbol list. I figure it makes the maps a little easier to look at to know what's going on. Here's the symbol map with a few changes I like.


Where is Poland going to go?

These are not actual attacks, only hypothetical possibilities... besides I don't think there are any zebra colored countries in eRep
Poland's movements through Sweden and Norway have provoked a fair amount of discussion. The real question everyone is asking is where is Poland going? There are only two things for Poland to gain, either a high resource (for which they are desperate for) or better positioning for an attack. The simple and easy gain would be Norway's High Oil. Norway is a relatively small country, but the High Oil in Vestlandet is their only high resource, and they would be unlikely to give it up, even for the a high rental price.

Also, Poland land swapping into Sorlandet makes this move seem unlikely, as they could have gone straight into Vestlandet from one they held before, Ostlandet. What it does make more likely is an attack on Scotland, UK.

Scotland is the “northern bridge” to get into North America, linking to Newfoundland. Of course getting through the United Kingdom will be no easy feat, and with Poland's attack getting stalled by the Ukraine yesterday and Slovenia today(see below), it is giving the UK time to stack even more MPPs up and prepare for battle. In the past two days, the UK has signed an MPP with Russia and France.

What will Poland do once they are in North America? From here they have several options.


Warning: Objects NOT according to scale
1) They could land swap through the US into Spain, and make an agreement for Aquitaine . Spain has possession of two of France's High Wood regions gained in their war with them some months past, Aquitane and Rhone Alps. Aquitaine is the “safer” of the two regions, bordered by France alone. Unfortunately for Poland, due to the numerous MPP stacks Poland has activated against both Slovenia and Hungary. Also Spain has established itself more in Aquitaine while Poland has greater ownership in Rhone Alps, and Spain would likely be loathe to give it up. Rhone Alps itself would be much harder to gain, as Poland would have to attack France sovereign territory to get to it (and activate their MPP list). All of this leaves this choice pretty unlikely


It's only a hop, skip, and a jump away!
2) Between Canada and the United States Poland could, with a lease agreement, gain access to High Grain, Oil, and Wood or Diamond. This would be far safer than trying to reacquire their old regions of Berlin and Rhone Alps, both held by nations of Entente who are sympathetic to Phoenix. Canada has six sources of wood, and three sources of grain, both in low populated regions Canada might not mind leasing. Diamond (soon to be titanium) will also become very valuable whenever V2 decides to rear it's ugly head. The United States has at least six sources of grain and oil and two sources of wood (I stopped counting).


Warning: Continents in map are closer than they appear!
3) Attack Southeast of Mexico. A month or so back, Poland tried to attack southeast of Mexico, presumably to take their source of high oil for themselves. At the time Mexico had no MPP and it would have been a sure win had Poland not been initiative blocked by Brazil From North America, Poland could land swap down to the US southeast, jump to the Canary Islands, and make another attempt on Mexico, via Georgia,US -> Galicia, Spain and Canary Islands, Spain -> Southeast Mexico. The majority of MPP's Mexico signed from that crisis in the past have gone, but MPP's with Russia and Hungary still exist, making it an unlikely Poland would be able to keep Southeast Mexico even if they do conquer it. However... conquering southeast Mexico opens up the option for Poland to get to ...


Germany, Sweden, Norway, UK, Canada, US, Spain, Mexico, Columbia, Peru... it's not THAT far
4) High Iron in Peru. Peru was PTOed by Poland a considerable time in the past, and Poland has made a few efforts to make it's high iron region their own. The rest of South America however are Phoenix supporters and have prevented Poland's movements in the past, specifically Brazil. From Mexico however, Poland could make a stab at rolling through Columbia and their single MPP with Serbia. They would need to go through three regions, plenty of time to give Colombia time to build up MPP's with other nations, but with enough help from mobile militaries from other EDEN countries it could be done. Once they are in Peru, Great-Andes, containing high Iron is entirely within Peru's borders, so Peru's sovereign territory can keep it safe. It would take a whole lot of maneuvering to get Poland into Peru, but the gains would also be pretty high.


I think I've been up too late editing this edition... these black and white arrows are burned into my retina
5) Finally, Poland could use North America as a bridge to gain access to Asia, with Japan and Chinese coorperation. This would be the one action of Poland not to gain a high resource for itself, but to eliminate Serbia from China by attacking Liaoning. Poland's massive population would likely be equal to or exceed Serbia's in damage, forcing Phoenix to devote much more effort to foreign aid to keeping Liaoning protected. The difference between US and Serbian damage in the last major engagement was almost exactly 3 million (3.66 mil for the US, 6.68 mil for Serbia). If Poland attacked instead of the USA, that could be an extra 3 million damage on EDEN's side.


Karnataka

With all these other players giving fantastic insight into the debate of Karnataka, giving my own two cents would be pointless.
The US president Harrison Richardson just released an article about Karnataka here negotiating a one week extension on the USA's lease. http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-us-in-an-update-on-karnataka-1393697/1/20

Sossu has an article here, http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/indian-president-wishes-karnataka-to-be-returned-my-thoughts-on-the-issue--1390522/1/20

Desertfalcon also wrote an article about the rented iron region here http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/the-karnataka-situation-1392108/1/20

The USA news is also dominated by presidential candidates. This election cycle it seems is full of candidates who have never been Country President (CP) before, but who are all well known in their perspective spheres. Since it is my goal for this to be a international paper, I won't go into great detail here, but I think there will be having fresh blood in the form of Angelini, Chocolate McSkittles, KillingTime, Colin Lantrip, and Sir Valaro Volcrum can only be good.

Important Battles of Day 923
Slovenia moves through Germany to attack Poland at Mecklenburg

west side of map
After days of expecting it, Slovenia has finally attacked Poland at Mecklenburg with it's 7 country MPP stack, virtually guaranteeing success. Austria, having an open war between both Germany and Slovenia, worked as the middle man to get Slovenia access, much as Sweden did between Poland and Norway in north Europe. At the moment the wall is at -2 mil, and there is little reason for Poland to spend significant effort to keep it.

A few of Germany's regions are being Resistance Warred back to them, including Tyrol and Hesse.

Hungary Attacks Moravia, Slovakia

east side of map
Hungary continues to leisurely move north through Slovakia After securing Southern Bohemia yesterday, Hungary attacks Moravia today. With the capture of this region, Hungary will have borders to Poland, and with the 21 nations on it's MPP list, it could seriously threaten the largest nation in eRep, even activating all of Poland's MPP's.


Norway Land Swaps into Sweden

Norway pushes through the formerly Poland land bridge into Scania, Sweden, likely to prevent Slovenia from using it's MPP stack against Poland. Both Norway and Sweden have active wars with Slovenia, so I'm not sure why Norway is holding Scania instead of Sweden (which would activate it's MPP list if attacked).



India claims victory over Pakistan. Iran attacks Balochistan, India; Serbia attacks Punjab, India; Resistance War in North West Frontier Providence, India


India claimed victory over Pakistan yesterday, eliminating their Phoenix friendly neighbor with attacks launched just before a Russian MPP came into effect. Both India and Pakistan received some foreign assistance from various EDEN and Phoenix nations, but with the damage range around 1 mil on each side for all battles, it was still a low damage battle. Pakistan lost a considerable amount of gold due to this, mainly from the loss of their Q5 hospital in Punjab and the loss of the MPP established with Russia in the final hours of the countries existance.

The 24 hours after India's conquest had every Indian occupied territory under attack, with Balochistan under attack from Iran, Punjab under fire from Serbia, and a resistance war in NWFP. The occupation, while short lived, has still been a moral boost for the south Asian country.

China attacks Visayas, Indonesia

China attacks Visayas, the Philippine capital currently occupied by Indonesia. If China captures this region, Mindanao will be all that remains of Indonesia's war with the small Pacific country. It is still unknown if China will RW the region back to the traditionally EDEN friendly (but currently under Serbian PTO) state.

Also to little surprise the resistance war in Tibet failed.


Bosnia and Herzegovina attacks Lika and Gorska Kotar, Croatia

Bosnia attacked the sovereign territory of L&GK, triggering Croatia's full MPP list. Bosnia, an originally EDEN friendly nation, came under a political takeover (PTO) a few months ago by mostly Serbians and aligned with Phoenix. In the last election cycle, an EDEN friendly president was elected, although I am not entirely sure about the status of their Congress. In any case, Bosnia has attacked Croatia, likely as a training war of sorts.


Columbia attacks Zulian, Venezuela

The small training war between Columbia and Venezuela begin again. I still don't understand why Venezuela surrenders the battle just before it ends, and Columbia promptly RW's the region back to Venezuela.


With the loss of the Malaysia / Philippine training war, this South American training war might gain a greater MPP list. At least from what I read here in the Belgium press, they are desperate for battles and will seek to gain an MPP with Venezuela as soon as they can afford one to stop the hemorrhaging of citizens seeking battles, despite the pro-Phoenix alignment of these nations. The SOL training wars are pro-EDEN so it's not like there is any real neutral alliance out there. I don't doubt other small neutral nations are in a similar predicament.

UPDATE! Venezuela ruins my sleep.... more news at 6
Venezuela land swaps through Mexico to border south America

Warning: Suffering from sleep deprivation, my analysis may be somewhat less unbiased than usual... you have been warned!!
The Evil Venezuelan Empire (EVE) has recently taken over the small, harmless, but lovable Mexican Enclave. The Mexican President surrendered Southeast Mexico, Oaxaca, Gulf of Mexico, Valley of Mexico, Northeast of Mexico, and Northwest of Mexico, where it is rumored he was bribed with his own stolen stash of Tequila. Mass refugees flee to Baha where they can enjoy the sandy beaches and tropical drinks.

The peace loving, mostly agrarian society of Agrarian Americans (AA) to the north are alarmed by the Evil Venezuelan Empire's aggressive action, and are attempting to gather weapons to defend themselves. Unfortunately they melted all of their swords and guns into plowshares, so instead they are attempting to share their stash of whiskey with the tequila hating Venezuelans in hope to be spared their endless anger.

Fortunately for the Mexican Enclave, it seems the Mexican cabinet finally broke into the President's room where they promptly tackled him. The President, suffering from Tequila withdrawal, was unable to retreat from the Pacific Coast of Mexico, where the few Mexicans who aren't getting a tan in Baha plan to fight.

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I spent FAR FAR too much time on this article... I'm tired... sorry in advance for some of the comments...

I really like pict.com has an image hosting site. I only hope that web page isn't blocked by China's Great Firewall. If it is I'll continue my search for the ideal image site. Too bad pict has a maximum to the number of pictures I can host... well I'm off to find another image hosting site... it was good while it lasted /sob

Cecil Knight
eUSA Army Group West
25/4 Tropic Lightning

Join AGW! http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/announcing-the-army-group-west-1378958/1/20
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USA Pony Express http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-922-deliver-this-1393985/1/20#comments

<3 Alexander Hamilton, in a BROtherly and purely platonic way