Back on track - An analysis of the Senate elections

Day 737, 15:10 Published in Australia Australia by H.Nelson


What's different compared to last month?

This month's Senate elections were different from the previous ones in many aspects.

First of all we had our original region of Western Australia back which besides its emotional and economic effects brought some basic changes to our election system as well. Instead of the usual scheme of 6 candidates gaining direct entry into the Senate from each state complemented by 4 wildcards distributed on a national level, this time we had 5 direct entries from each state and 5 wildcards as a supplement.

Western Australia was quickly discovered by would-be Senators and as a result of this we could see many familiar names running for Senate there and only a few lesser known ones.

Then we had PaPP continuing to climb up in the party rankings making them the second largest party in eAustralia, climbing from 5th to 2nd place by recruiting exactly 140 members over a 30-day period.

As game mechanics only allow Top 5 party members to run for Senate the number of candidates running under other parties' banner increased significantly. We will have a chart representing recent changes at the end of the article.

Now we're going to concentrate on the overall performance of parties and the characteristics of this month's elections. If you would like to read some more information on each party's individual performance I recommend you to have a look at CrowdedHouse's great analysis here.

Distribution of Senate seats





The winner of this month's elections is ANP taking 13 seats in the new eAustralian Senate. This is more than twice the number than last time when they took a shared 4th (virtually last) place with only 6 seats obtained.

PaPP continued their strong performance by taking 10 seats compared to their previous month's performance of 8 seats. However, their amazing run in the party rankings with a 150% increase in number of members previously suggested more than this 25% increase in the number of Senate seats.

Independent candidates took 8 seats this time which is a steady performance over a couple of months now. The concept of voting for the Independent way apparently has a strong support among eAustralian citizens and this time resulted in a 3rd place behind two classical political parties.

The biggest surprise is the extremely poor performance of the ADSP taking only 7 seats, which is almost shocking considering the fact that they were the clear winners last month when they had almost twice the number of seats than this time. The usual ADSP ads and strong campaign were almost non existent this month combined with an unfortunate attempt to reform the party's image by altering its well-known logo and even their name which had been restored at the end for the elections.

TBP is quite unpredictable nowadays and despite a promising performance last month this time they have to settle with a slim result of only 2 Senate seats. Although they still have a comfortable membership figure looking at the trends it's only a matter of time when they will be threatened by dropping out of the Top 5.

For a comprehensive comparison you can see the results of the past three months' elections here:



Turnout rate by regions

The extremely high turnout rates in NT and TAS is business as usual while the relatively high turnout rates of WA and SA still have to be investigated (mainly by monitoring the results of future elections). They can be either a consequence of the high level of activity in close connection with the recent hospital deployments or caused by the high level of directed votes as seen in NT and TAS from time to time.



All in all I suppose a turnout rate of 35-45% is the most realistic in eAustralia these days. That also means that a population spread evenly among the states would generate a turnout rate with a minimum level (ca. 10😵 of fluctuation.

Number of candidates by regions

Here you can see the number of candidates running for Senate in each region and you can also follow the proportion of them actually winning a seat.



NSW offered 3 wildcards above the regular 5 seats so a total number of 8 senators coming from this region while VIC provided the rest of the wildcard this time. You can also see on the above chart that you had the least chance to get elected in QLD.

Votes taken by parties

Here you can see all votes taken into account; a possible measure of the current popularity of each party.



It's also interesting to see how ANP managed to gain ground and how PaPP doubled their number of supporters compared to last month.

Votes taken by parties compared to their number of members



Here we can see the Australian Independents and the ANP almost taking as many votes as their number of members while ADSP hitting a surprising low of 42%.

Distribution of Senate seats @14:30 on Day 737

As indicated earlier there were a number of candidates from parties out of the Top 5 running under the banner of other parties. After the elections we could see many Senators switching parties; taking into account these recent changes the current number and distribution of Senate seats is as follows:





If you appreciate my efforts informing the eAustralian public and would like to read some more analyses on local events in the future, please do not hesitate to


Finally let me just point out on the charity drive I proposed yesterday to our newly elected Senators but sadly have not had any positive feedback since then. For those who are not aware; I asked my colleagues who can afford it to support the enormous effort of ausEaid by donating them the 5 gold award for getting elected. If you read this article and are willing to take part in this charity drive simply donate the 5 gold to ausEaid and include a short comment below to let the public and your fellow Senators know.

Best regards,
H.Nelson
Senator for Queensland (3rd term)
ACU Koalas member (Foxtrot Squad)
Australian Independent