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Saturn Reference-土星参考

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全文翻译自E斯洛文尼亚期刊The eSlovenia Times文章《Defeating a superior opponent》
以及E斯洛文尼亚期刊World stuf文章《PREMAGATI MOČNEJŠEGA NASPROTNIKA》
文中的事件、人物及观点与本报无关，相关材料谨供国人参考。以下是正文
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The original article was published by Fight4 in slovenian, this is a translation for our friends and allies.
原文由Fight4以斯洛文尼亚语言出版，本文是为我们的友邻和盟国准备的译本。

Vote and sub the original article: http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/premagati-mo-nej-scaron-ega-nasprotnika-1967128/1/20
请在原文好评及订阅：http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/premagati-mo-nej-scaron-ega-nasprotnika-1967128/1/20

Right now the main topic is the disagreements between Slovenia and the ONE HQ, but I will not be writing about that. Some of you know that in recent months I have said that the ONE command is incompetent and dumb in the area where it should be the most successful, strategy.
现今的主要议题是斯洛文尼亚与ONE总部的分歧，但我不会谈及此事。你们中的一些知道，在最近的几个月ONE的指挥机构是愚蠢无能的，而它本来是应该做到富于战略和卓有成效的。

Anyone that has done any strategical thinking in his life can see the incompetence of the ONE HQ based on their decisions so far. In addition to that you can notice poor awareness of the current situation and the inaptitude to face the current situation.
任何在此生做过些许战略思考的人都会从ONE总部迄今为止的决定看出其无能，此外，你能注意到他们对当前形势缺乏认知，并缺乏面对现实形势的能力。

In the article I will not be writing about what is bad with the ONE HQ, quite the contrary I will answer the title and give the ONE HQ a lesion in strategy.
在本文中，笔者无意于直言ONE总部欠缺何处，恰恰相反，我准备回答标题的问题并为ONE总部上一堂战略课。

Fighting a superior opponent
与一位强大的对手交战

Right now the situation is that the first time since it's creation ONE is facing a superior opponent. Why the opponent is superior is not important, but it is important to know how to efficiently and effectively fight him.
眼下的情况是，ONE联盟自初创以来第一次面对如此强劲的敌手。敌人为何如此强大，这并不重要，重要的是要明白如何才能有效地打击敌人。

The answer to this question is nothing new, it is an old military tactic called guerrilla warfare.
针对这个问题的答案并不新鲜，它是一种古老的军事战术，叫做游击战。

Guerilla tactic is currently the only option for ONE, even thou some still dream of defeating the enemy in a one-on-one engagement (If you saw the film Patriot you can see the reasoning). Open warfare with a numerically and economically superior opponent, that has a better strategic position and organization is dumb, to use a kind word.
对ONE联盟来说，游击战是解决眼下困境的唯一选项，尽管某些人依然幻想着在一对一的正面战场上击溃对方（如果你看过爱国者这部电影，你就会明白我这么说的原因）。正面对抗一个在兵力数量上、经济规模上，组织程度和战略地位上都大大超过我方的强大敌人，这种行为只能用一个词来形容：那就是 愚蠢。

The advantages of EDEN:
EDEN方面具备的优势：

Organization: I think it was Romper that wrote, »EDEN learned organization in the era of strong ONE domination«. While EDEN adapted to the situation and survived, ONE is keeping it's head in the sand. I have to add that the EDEN forces relied on certain tanks in key moments and without those the strategy would not be nearly as successful, but that is not the excuse for ONE not to act.
组织程度上的优势：我记得Romper曾写道：“EDEN在ONE占据优势的时代学会了如何组织作战。”在那样的情况下EDEN适应了恶劣环境并生存至今，而反观ONE却一直在作埋头入沙的鸵鸟。我必须额外注明的是EDEN会在关键时刻动用大坦克玩家的战力，而没有此等战力的干预他们的战略恐怕也不会成功，但这并不是ONE方面不采取类似行动的借口。

Numerical advantage: Due to the proEDEN stance of Turkey, EDEN has the advantage and even if Turkey doesn't join EDEN it will probably remain antiONE and that means that the numerical advantages will stay with EDEN.
兵力数量上的优势：由于土耳其的亲EDEN立场，EDEN取得了对抗ONE的优势，哪怕土耳其不加入EDEN，他们也可能会继续维持其反对ONE的政策，这意味着EDEN方面依然将继续占据数量上的优势。

Economy: Without a doubt EDEN has a more stabile economy and more countries with all or almost all the resources. I will not count all the countries as you can see them yourself in the World Map, I will only mention China and Brazil, where many EDEN units have their productions and are almost impervious to the loss of resource bonuses. In ONE the closest to having all the resources is Slovenia, which says a lot about ONE.
经济方面的优势：毫无疑问，EDEN拥有更稳定的经济，也拥有更多十全或接近十全资源的国家。在此我不一一列举这些国家，你们可以很方便地从地图上找到。我只想提及巴西和中国，大量EDEN单位在那两个国家落户以享受生产加成，同时他们的生产加成很难被撼动。反观ONE方面，最接近十全资源的国家是斯洛文尼亚，这在ONE被说的很多。

Strategic position (geographically): It doesn't take a genius to see the huge geographical advantage of EDEN/TERRA. I will only mention a few, since I doubt you would be willing to read a list of all of them. The most obvious are the four isolated countries with all the resources: China, USA, Brazil and Argentina.
地缘战略优势（地理优势：）：无须天才的智慧就可以轻易看出，ET联盟的国家拥有的地理优势。鉴于你们可能已经读到很多，在这里我只提少许。他们拥有四个位置孤立的资源大国：中国，美国，巴西，阿根廷。

These countries are either geographically hard to reach (Brazil) or in the case of the US, very large and are very difficult to attack with any effect. The position of EDEN countries in Europe is also very important, because they neighbor the strongest ONE country and are weakening it with constant attacks, or in other words, keeping the strongest ONE force under control. A direct conflict with Serbia is not in the interest of any EDEN country, so they are using attrition tactics and ONE HQ is going along with it.
这些国家的地理优势在于，要么很难打击到（比如巴西），要么如美国一样，幅员辽阔省份众多发动袭击也很难产生影响。身处欧洲的EDEN国家其地理位置也是非常关键的，因为他们毗邻ONE方面实力最强的国家，并不断发动攻击来削弱其实力，换句话来说，不断发动攻击吸引ONE国家的主要战力，保持对其的控制。与塞尔维亚的冲突对任何EDEN国家而言都不会产生直接利益，所以他们不断发动消耗战，迫使ONE指挥部跟进。

Don't worry, things are not as bleak as they may seem and as I already said the solution is in guerrilla warfare. I will now try to show the weaknesses of EDEN/TERRA, areas where our enemies are the most vulnerable.
但是不要惊慌，事态还没有发展到它们看上去的那样的黯淡无望。正如我之前说到的，对此情况的解决方案就是发动游击战。我会尽量在下文中展示ET联盟的弱点，指出我们敌人的软肋。

Attacks to temporarily or permanently weaken the economy of EDEN/TERRA.
为暂时或永久削弱ET联盟经济而发动攻势

Any good strategist knows that the base for war is a strong economy. An army can not fight without food or weapons and with the lack of supplies comes the loss of morale. In RL it is even more obvious, but even here we can see that an economic decline is linked to results in battles.
任何优秀的战略家都知道，战争的实力取决于强大的经济。缺枪少粮之军旅难以为战，而缺乏补给最终会导致士气散尽。在真实位面中，这是显而易见的道理，而即便是在这个位面，我们也能看到经济衰退对战况的影响。

Bulgaria is one of the strongest countries, but it is also a country with the most weak points. They are, of course, their borrowed regions in Ukraine and Russia. Without those regions Bulgaria is left with only four, without a real possibility of expansion. The loss of those regions would likely be permanent, since the shared MPPs would prevent Bulgaria attacking Ukraine and Russia.
保加利亚是最强大的国家之一，同时也是具备最多软肋的国家。他们从俄罗斯和乌克兰租借取得资源地，失去这些省份他们就只会剩下四资源，并且没有再次扩张的可能性。这些资源地的损失将可能会是永久性的，这是因为保加利亚与俄罗斯和乌克兰分别签署了MPP攻守同盟协定。



The loss of these regions would also deepen the political crisis between Turkey and Bulgaria and as a result the EDEN alliance. Bulgaria would probably see their opportunity for resources in the regions originally held by Iran and since Iran has MPPs signed with ONE countries that would be the most realistic scenario for Bulgarian expansion.
这些地区的损失也将会加剧EDEN方面保加利亚与土耳其之间的政治危机。保加利亚可能会看到他们重获资源的可能性在被土耳其占据的伊朗故地，鉴于伊朗也是隶属于ONE方面，这将会是保加利亚最现实的扩张路径。

At this point I will also remind you that guerrilla warfare is not only combat in the field (as most people imagine), it also a combat in the political arena.
在这一点上我要提醒你们的是，游击战不仅如许多人所想那样仅仅局限于战场上，它同时也是政治舞台上的角逐。

USA have their weak points, maybe not as big as Bulgaria, but they have them. They lie in France where the US holds two recourses, that would be difficult to replace, because they share MPPs with the original owner – France.
美国也有他们的软肋，也许没有保加利亚那么严重，但它们依然是弱点。美国在法国故地拥有两块资源地，而这些资源一旦丢失同样难以重占，因为美法之间也在共享MPP。

One resource is rubber, the other is deer in Navarra (Spanish region) and it can only be reached (at the moment anyway) through France. I have also marked fish, that US holds both in France and Spain, but with the loss of Aquitaine they would only have the access to those in Spain and would be further vulnerable. It is unlikely that the liberation of Spanish regions would be permanent, but it is a great opportunity for harassing the enemy.
一个资源是橡胶，另一个则是西班牙境内纳瓦拉的鹿资源，目前来说后者必须通过美国在法国故土的资源地才能与本土连接。另一个要注意的是鱼资源，美国在法国故地和西班牙故地各有一处，但是阿基坦省一旦失去，他们就只剩下西班牙故地的鱼资源，对他们的实力会是进一步的削弱。对西班牙的解放可能不会是永久性的，但对于骚扰我们的对手而言依然是很好的机会。

The idea is very simple and is based in the idea of breaking the enemy's supply lines, the RL example would be the cutting of railways in WW2, the guerrilla fighters then did not have the means to hold and defend the railways, so they disrupted them as much as possible.
这种战法并不难理解，它的中心思想就是切断敌人的补给线。在真实位面的第二次世界大战里，游击队战士攻击和切断铁路运营，并没有试图守住得到的铁路。他们所做的是尽可能的骚扰。

In this game we don't have supply lines, but we do need connections to get the resource bonuses and if they are broken it takes almost 48 hours to reconnect (in ideal conditions). That is not an insignificant effect and in addition to that is also causes the fluctuations in the job and raw markets, which also adds to the enemies problems.
在这个游戏中没有军队补给线的概念，但我们需要将资源地连接到首都，而如果资源线被中断则通常需要将近48小时才能重新连接（这还是在理想状况下）。这并非是什么微不足道的影响，它将导致敌国在劳动力市场和原材料市场产生波动，加剧敌国经济的问题。



After the liberation of their regions the Spanish could employ an unusual strategy and attack Brazil, with that they would force Brazil to conquer their regions and in turn deny them to the US. It is likely that Brazil would give those regions back to the US, but again that would take time and resources.
在西班牙省份取得解放之后，他们可以从那里对巴西发动战略奇袭，这将迫使巴西征服西班牙新近独立的领土，反而使得美国很难再次获得。巴西当然会把这些资源地退还美国，但这些行动又要耗费额外的时间和资源。

Another weak point is in the Mexican region of Baja, where the US holds the only region with this resource and would be a great location for starting RWs that would divert their forces and that with the RWs in Spain would force the US to constantly propose NE against these countries (in the event there RWs would be successful) and by doing that extend the time without certain resources.
美国的另一个弱点位于原属墨西哥的巴哈，这是美国唯一的（盐）资源地，同时这里也是发动起义战的绝佳地点，这将牵扯敌人的军力，伴随着西班牙方面的起义战将迫使美国不断对这些国家切换天敌法案（在叛乱成功的情况下），从而进一步延长敌国缺乏资源的时间。

Turkey has only one connection to their resources in Asia and a very small chance to shift their capital. With a successful RW of one region Turkey would be significantly weakened. The other weakness of Turkey is in the fact that they have regions in many different countries, and with an attack on their connection region, RWs (which under normal circumstances would have no chance of success) in other regions would have a decent chance to succeed.
土耳其与其位于亚洲的资源地只有一个连接地，而他们变更首都的可能性也很小。在土耳其境内发动一场成功的起义战，将显著削弱土耳其的经济。土耳其的另一个弱点在于它为获取省份而占领了太多不同的国家，而在失去连接后，其他省份的起义战成功几率将显著提高（这些起义战在正常情况下是很难成功的）。



Greece also has only one connection region and as in the case of Turkey is dependent on a single region for their production bonuses.
希腊也同样仅有一个省份用以连接资源，如同土耳其的例子一样，他们的生产加成过度依赖于连接地段的安全与否。



There are also other weak points in other countries, but I will not list them all now, because that would take too much time and from the examples given you can see the countries and regions where guerrilla warfare is needed.
其他国家也有着类似这样的弱点，因为时间的关系在此我不再一一列举。从我给出的列子，你可以看到在这些国家和地区发动游击战是非常必要的。

For any of the ideas to work you need organization. Guerrilla units are small and well armed, that have the mobility which prevents the enemy to track it and prepare a successful defense.
为了施行任何计划，你都需要组织力量。游击队组织规模不大，装备精良，不易追踪，难于防备。

Units must be independent, but coordinated for them to be efficient. This sort of warfare would, in a short amount of time, significantly weaken EDEN/TERRA, with a series of real and diversionary attacks ONE mobile units would strike fear in all EDEN countries that have weak points. Attacks should come at different times and locations with the real goal revealed at the last possible moment so to have the element of surprise. Defending against such attacks is difficult and demoralizes the enemy due to the unpredictable nature of these kinds of attacks and the battle weariness that comes with attempting to control regions all around the world 24/7.
游击队必须是独立的，但他们之间的协同需要有效的协调。这种作战方式将在很短的时间内，有效地削弱ET联盟。用一系列牵制战役掩护真正的攻势，ONE移动部队可以在EDEN国家的薄弱点战场散布恐慌。所有的攻势应当在不同时间段，不同地点交错发动，直到最后一刻才显露真实意图最终达到出奇制胜的目的。防御这种类型的攻击会是非常困难的而且这将动摇敌人的士气，因为这种类型的攻击是难以预测的，而对方在试图每周七天每天二十四小时地保持防御时，则会疲于奔命疲惫厌战。

Even if the enemy organizes some sort of watches, they would have to be divided in shifts and would be outnumbered by the ONE mobile units that would be coordinated and organized.
即便我们的敌人组织了哨戒监控之类的机构，划分指责和轮班制度也将产生麻烦，而这些少量的部队在面对突如其来的大量ONE精英移动部队急袭时也将寡不敌众。

Imagine a citizen of Turkey that has a few employees and not knowing if the next morning he would wake up to a country with all the resources or almost non of them. Imagine the costs he would have with the reduced production every time this would happen and the damage to the countries economy that would cause.
想想一个雇佣了少量员工的土耳其人无法确知明早起床时国家是否会失去全部资源加成，想像一下每次他因为资源锐减而付出的代价，以及这会对他的国家总体经济产生的严重挫伤吧。

Focusing on Spain
集中解决西班牙问题

ONE should divert economic aid to Spain. They are the only country with a significant increase in population, but there is a chance that many of these will quit due to the current situation, to prevent that ONE should immediately set up a daily supply of food from other member countries and distribute it to the new Spanish citizens.
ONE应当集中精力为西班牙提供经济援助。这是一个少有的人口显著增长的国家，但他们中的许多可能因为当前险恶的环境而退出。为了防止这种人口流失，ONE方面应该立即组织其他成员国对西班牙进行日常食品供应将其分发给西班牙的新生力量。

The results of this kind of action would be seen very soon, because in the early stages development of new player is very fast - if they are able to fight on a regular basis. With a campaign like this Spain's strength would increase significantly and Spain would be a real thorn in the side of Brazil and could defeat it in one RW after another.
这种行动的结果将很快体现，因为在成长初期，如果能够维持定期作战，玩家的发展会非常快。这样的行动能显著提高西班牙的力量，而西班牙则会成长为巴西战线的真正威胁，能够依靠自身取得一场接一场的起义战胜利。

With this in mind I suggest that Slovenia by it self organizes help for Spain in the form of food donations, as much as we can afford – I am sure our finance minister can do the math of how much we can afford.
有鉴于此，我建议斯洛文尼亚能竭尽所能地以捐赠食品的方式组织起对西班牙的援助计划。我相信我们的财政部能够规划出我们能承受的合理数目。

What makes a good strategist?
一位战略家应该具备哪些素质？

A few tips for all those would like to be successful strategists. Without following these you will leave every situation and battle to chance.
下面是对所有想成为一名成功的战略家的朋友的一点小技巧。倘若不遵循这样的原则，取胜只是凭借运气而已。

1. There is no strong army, without a strong economy
没有强大的经济就没有强大的军力
2. Always have two backup plans if the primary fails
永远确保有两个备份计划，以备主计划遭遇不测。
3. Do not underestimate your opponent
绝不低估你的对手
4. Wars start because of emotions, but are planned without them
战争因情绪而发起，但制订计划则要排除情绪因素
5. Stagnation is defeat, you always have to advance
停滞就是失败，你必须做到超前
6. Predict every possible outcome, that is the only way you will be one step ahead of your opponent
预测所有可能产生的结果，这是你领先对手一步棋的唯一法门
7. Always use deception and keep the opponent in doubt
擅用诈术，使你的对手疑惑。
8. Everyone can win, but a good commander wins with the minimal amount of resources used
任何人都能取胜，但优秀的指挥官总是动用最低限度资源的那种
9. Never show weakness to the enemy, he will use it against you.
不要把你的弱点暴露给敌人，他们会利用它来打击你
10. Learn from the mistakes of others, the one you make might be your last.
从他人的错误中学习，任何错误都可能是你此生最后的错误。

There are many other things a good strategist should know, but these points are key to any successful strategy and that is why I wrote them.
还有许多一个好的战略家应当了解的事，但以上这些是任何成功战略的关键，这也是我写在文中的原因。

With what you just read, You decide for yourself if the offensive on Romania is a good strategy (in which the ONE HQ sees as a strike against EDEN) or not. Romania is not a key country to weaken EDEN, at least not at this point.
从你刚刚读过得内容中，你可以自己决定攻取罗马尼亚是否是一个好的战略（在ONE总部看来这可是针对EDEN的重大攻势）。罗马尼亚并非削弱EDEN的关键国家，至少在目前看来不是。

ONE without leadership and organization
缺乏领导和组织的ONE

Realism is what is missing in the ONE HQ, living in an imaginary world will not solve our problems. ONE is not on the top of the food chain and it has to start acting with this in mind. For Slovenia that is not a problem, but it seems to be for Poland, Hungary and Macedonia. These three countries do not understand their positions and are suffering defeat after defeat.
ONE总部缺乏现实主义思路，活在自己织造的环境中无法解决我们目前面临的问题。ONE并没有位于食物链的顶端，但ONE总部却总是自以为是如此行事。对于斯洛文尼亚来说还不算问题，但看上波兰匈牙利和马其顿已经深陷其中。这三个国家没有真正地认识自己的处境，所以只会连战连败。

The first step in the evolution of ONE is a change of leadership with people who have the knowledge and time to plan and execute a successful strategy. The second step is to organize the professional armies in all ONE countries and the third work on mutual respect, without which no alliance can be successful.
ONE成功进化的第一步就是变更领导权，将领导权转移到拥有时间和知识能够计划和实行成功战略的人。第二步是在所有ONE国家组织专业军队。第三步则是在联盟内部确立互信互敬，缺乏这一点，任何联盟都是泡影。

ONE should take Slovenia as an example and not despise it. Slovenia is currently the most powerful country ONE, believe it or not. You are probably thinking what am I talking about? Slovenia has certain advantages that no other country in ONE has. Slovenia currently has unity, political, economic and external stability, one of the best organized armies (professional and regular units), good relations with most neighboring countries, organized training and integration of new citizens, generous subsidies for building and (in most cases) experienced people in the leadership of the country. Don’t get your ego up too much, a lot has yet to be done and many things need to improve, but we can be proud of what we achieved.
ONE应当将斯洛文尼亚视为典范而非忽视它。斯洛文尼亚是现今ONE联盟内部最强大的国家，无论你相信与否。也许你质疑我都说了些什么空话，但斯洛文尼亚确实拥有其他ONE国家所欠缺的品质。斯洛文尼亚团结一致，政治经济和对外关系稳定，拥有高组织度的部队（专业和正规的军队），与四邻关系和睦，对新国民有完善的训练和整合，国家设立了慷慨的经济补贴，并且（在大多数情况下）它的领导层都是具备领导经验和领导才干的。面对这些你们不要太过自负，我们确实还有许多事情需要去做，很多东西需要改善，但我们可以凭我们取得的成就而深感自豪。

ONE will evolve or die, the choice is simple.
要么进化要么死亡，对于ONE的命运这是非常简单的选择。
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