Election Analysis: Unity vs. AFA today and tomorrow.

Day 1,843, 10:31 • Published in USA USA • by Candor

So enough about you, let’s talk about me for awhile.

I’m sitting at home this morning eating donuts and drinking diet Mountain Dew. Maple bars, mostly.



"Well Candor, if you’re eating donuts, and particularly maple bars, why are you bothering with diet soda?"

I’ve just gotten used to diet Mountain Dew really, and it’s all I buy. On a more prepared morning, I’d be drinking a couple of AMPs. But alas I’m out today. I have maple bars and you don't 😛

Moving on.


My pre-election predictions:

Inwegen 1475____________Actual 1337.
Hanibal 1000____________Actual 997
Publius 100_____________Actual 71
TGOTJ 80______________Actual 62
Romanian 65____________Actual 64

I’m going to call that pretty much a solid B. But let’s discuss where I got it wrong (Inwegen) and why.

Inwegen wasn't the only candidate seriously missing votes. Publius was missing better than 33% of what should be expected as well. He's been playing since they turned the game on. So I’m going to begin with where these two lost votes together.


Old couple no one knows

Both Inwegen and Publius are meta players entirely. You don’t know them eAmerica. You once did, but you don’t really now. And that hurt them both with players who never meta but do occasionally read media. We generically call these folks two-clickers. And they are numerous. Roughly half of all eAmericans never venture past the in game at all. Never.

Both of these two guys have put in more hours in service to the nation than 95% of all players that have ever stepped foot into the game. But they have little interest in participating in media, so they may as well be Indonesians to half our citizenry. If you want two-clickers to see you, you have to write frequently.



That lack of face time cost them both votes, Publius doing no better than a random Romanian and a SFP placeholder (The Ghost of Tom Joad, who is active in media and will one day be a serious contender for elected office). Name recognition should have pulled in more votes for Publius. I severely over estimated Publius name recognition. Two clickers don’t have a clue who he is. And this ends the Publius story.

Two clickers don’t know who Inwegen is either, but most are aware of the Unity/AFA battle by now, and cast for Unity 2-to-1 over AFA.

So let’s move on to the four issues which are effecting participation in general. This election we saw a significant drop in participation on the Unity side of the equation. Why?

1) Running unknowns
2) Bonus losses
3) Tight borders
4) Unity Elections

Special mention: Lack of creativity.



The first reason is because Unity ran a candidate people didn't know. Look at the candidates, and consider from a two-clicker vantage point, or even a mildly involved players view point. They really didn’t recognize any of the people who were running.

Hanibal writes, but not enough and what he does write isn't very interesting to the “potty” crowd. The “potty” crowd wants something they can read quickly, that offers sex, humor, or short situational synopsis. They don’t read the long boring Unity/AFA fight stuff, they lost interest in that a couple months ago.

Inwegen doesn't write at all.

It was a Dangerous game Unity played running an unknown in game, and it's a foolish game AFA is playing doing the same.



The second reason we’re all losing participation is because we've given up some bonuses. That’s hurting AFA membership recruitment and retention, yes, but it’s hurting Unity membership and retention too. And AFA has a serious advantage over Unity because...



...the third reason Unity numbers are down is that Unity runs tight borders. AFA will let anyone in, while Unity is being stingy as hell with citizenship's. Unity for months has had this theory that not letting people in somehow hurts AFA more than Unity. That is dead wrong, and always has been. Unity needs to open the borders and run invitational campaigns in friendly nations, particularly eAlbania (for which a friendly party exists here to make them feel welcome and at home) and eBrazil.



And the final reason Unity is losing participation is because people aren't seeing campaigning in the media. With Unity Elections beginning the 18th (or so) of every month (by necessity), by the time the actual POTUS election takes place on the 5th the more moderately involved in game players aren't feeling like they have any choices at all. Unity Elections themselves are harming interest in elections.

So let me finish by telling you what next month looks like. Next month AFA will pull in 1100 votes or so. Unity will continue a decline, to the 1200 level, where it will level off and remain indefinitely. But AFA will continue to gain momentum as the brass ring seems closer to foreign nationals and non-eAmericans.



Next month will be a real race. We're talking a 100 point spread, which is too close to call. But then it’s over. In February AFA takes the Presidency.

I've given Unity four trends they can reverse if they choose to which could change the equation completely. But my last comment on that will be this:



They thought the Titanic was unsinkable, until it sank. Were I Unity leadership (the Executive), I’d be looking a bit more closely at the ships design. There are indeed some major flaws.

Get thinking outside the box. That box is suffocating you.


Dutifully Submitted,