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Election Prediction and one day at Band Camp...

Day 1,841, 20:03 by Candor

So here’s your advance December POTUS race predictions (this is an opinion piece!).

Inwegen will win with roughly 1475 votes.
Hanibal will receive about 1000 votes.

A third option will be The Ghost of Tom Joad from the Socialist Freedom Party who doesn't want your vote but will receive about 80 votes anyway.

Publius ended up on the ballot. 100 votes to him. He's pulling from Inwegen. Not sure why this has happened.

The Romanian fellow will pull a few votes as well, 65-ish. These are probably random, and pull from all camps.



The closest the AFA candidate has come to winning the POTUS position was in October, when Pfeiffer was the only option aside from the AFA candidate, and roughly 500 people voted against Pfeiffer and therefore for the AFA candidate.

A very dangerous thing to do, putting arguably the nations second most disliked player up against an AFA candidate. Pfeiffer won by only 254 votes.



In November Cerb received about 1600 votes and the AFA about 900. The two other choices garnered about 250 votes in total.

The greater the distance from Pfeiffer, the greater the spread will be between AFA and the Unity candidate. In the name of saving the nation, probably no one close to Pfeiffer should be running at all for awhile, but they’ll refuse to acknowledge this and continue running anyway I expect.



Inwegen is a decent guy. I’ve known him for a couple of years now anyway. He can be short tempered at times but he’s smart and involved. If he has a weakness, it’s that many of you reading this don’t know him, or don’t know him very well. He’s almost an entirely forum/meta player.

John Jay would have brought a larger spread between Unity and AFA, but Inwegen will still win this handedly.

Hanibal is equally hindered by his attachment to RGR. RGR takes the top spot as the nations most disliked person. If the AFA wanted to “win” more quickly in their attempts to politically take over the nation, they’d be wise to put distance between themselves and RGR. But they too will ignore this advice.



Tomorrow we will see Inwegen elected. He is a good guy, but for the most part, all the seats at the table of decision making (never mind the fancy titles) will remain as they've been for months. Expect a formalizing of a new alliance, a continuation of an international emphasis, and communication from Inwegen at about the same pace, if not slightly less, than we saw with Cerb. Inwegen doesn't love to write.

See you at the polls America.

Dutifully Submitted,





Моји пријатељи, ја стојим пред вама човека без панталона! Гласајте овај чланак, тако да сам опет могу да носе панталоне у име свега што је пристојно!

 

Comments

Bucephalus92
Bucephalus92 Day 1,841, 20:18

first

Ghost of Tom Joad
Ghost of Tom Joad Day 1,841, 20:26

I hope the predictions are true and suspect they will be, in that order.

Syz2
Syz2 Day 1,841, 20:27

All reasonable. Voted.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,841, 20:35

Fail article based on nothing but you pulling numbers out of your behind.

Serendipitous
Serendipitous Day 1,841, 20:47

Candor writes with candor.

wingfield
wingfield Day 1,841, 20:59

Voted. Vote for America and not for the AFA.

pop George
pop George Day 1,841, 22:32

very sound perspective even if it is out of your behind, something Ajay knows about being (a) behind always...

Candor
Candor Day 1,842, 00:08

Publius somehow ended up on the ballot. Any for him are pulled from Inwegen, so this seems a bit...odd.

Publius
Publius Day 1,842, 00:29

My first hundred may be protest votes and any others will be two clickers that choose at random. None will pull from Inwegen.

Phoenix Quinn
Phoenix Quinn Day 1,842, 02:34

Baby-blue undershorts on Mr. Eastwood? The mind reels.

In the name of all that's decent, have Clint put his pants back on.

Hostilian
Hostilian Day 1,842, 03:03

Transform

"Моји пријатељи, ја стојим пред вама човека без панталона! Гласајте овај чланак, тако да сам опет могу да носе панталоне у име свега што је пристојно!"

into

"Пријатељи, стојим пред вама без панталона! Гласајте за овај чланак како бих опет могао да носим панталоне у име свега пристојног!"

And I guess your predictions are possible, I just don't know how you predicted 1.5k - 25 for Inwegen.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,842, 03:23

I crunched the numbers. the spread will be less than against pfeiffer... sooo this is just him making numbers up without research

Hostilian
Hostilian Day 1,842, 03:33

I agree RGR, I think the run will be closer. I still think Inwegen will win, but more likely with a 10:9 ratio, not 3:2 like Candor estimated.

Thorin II Oakenshield
Thorin II Oakenshield Day 1,842, 04:02

We should bet on that ratio. But yes, your predictions are probably right.

I like the last words. : )

Syz2
Syz2 Day 1,842, 05:38

This is odd. AFA claimed that the eUSA forum admins were the elitists, and then he says Inwegen is elitist, but they are reducing each other's liklihood of winning.

Bia Pandora
Bia Pandora Day 1,842, 09:24

"In the name of saving the nation, probably no one close to Pfeiffer should be running at all"

Voted for one more person not afraid to speak the truth.

TTi09
TTi09 Day 1,842, 14:27

Voted and subbed. Great artiglos

Viarizi
Viarizi Day 1,842, 17:33

v

Kaptain Kidd
Kaptain Kidd Day 1,842, 18:07

I can't call any of this wrong, the reasoning is correct.

Hampton H. Hampton
Hampton H. Hampton Day 1,842, 18:19

I remember when I took that pic of clint, was some funny shit, we split a bottle of Jim Bean and then he was like, "I'm gonna shoot all of today scens with no pants" We all laughed

good times, good times

Candor
Candor Day 1,842, 20:23

Huh, I may be a bit high on Iggy's numbers. I expect that's people starting to not give a shite due to Unity Elections, this will be a pretty darn low turnout it looks like.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,842, 22:21

We were both wrong... so the truth is somewhere in the middle it seems.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,842, 22:21

Also, no, more citizens leaving....

I have said before that we slightly replace more than we lose... but the other parties lose people they can't replace.... it has been happening for months.

Candor
Candor Day 1,842, 22:54

I called Hanibal with 1000. That's what he received.

I called Iggy with 1475, he'll end up 100 down at 1375.

That's a 225 drop over last month, and up 100 for AFA. If that trend were to continue, AFA will win next month, or it will be mighty tight.

But with bonus losses, a tight Unity border, and Unity Elections harming interest...it may slow, the Unity vote losses. That could extend an AFA win out 60 days.

Candor
Candor Day 1,842, 22:55

Either way, good money it's a tight race next month.

Bia Pandora
Bia Pandora Day 1,843, 03:13

My prediction: We won't make it next month unless the unity candidate that the majority of citizens wants is actually "elected" for once. Did you know that in two top 2 parties combined Inwegen only received a total of 2 votes in the primaries? That number could have increased by a couple by the end to be fair, but when you received less than 10 votes out of 600+ top 5 party members, and only won by 2 votes in a third, and only won the 6th party vote because 79 peoples votes counted....yeah

Iliya The Great
Iliya The Great Day 1,843, 04:18

P accurate prediction Candor..

weasel2
weasel2 Day 1,843, 09:08

Your predictions spot on.
I guess Glove running next.
John Jay for POTUS!

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,843, 11:05

^LoL

It will be a cold day in hell before we run Glove again.

morningblur
morningblur Day 1,843, 19:03

Next month John jay or John Largo for president. Both are honorable guys that most everyone can get behind. With either of them running there will be a massive spread between our guy and the AFA. To those who run our elections heed this advice, get one of them to run.

 
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