The Economist ~ Economics Manifesto

Day 954, 05:20 Published in United Kingdom United Kingdom by Spite313
Please help the Economist: Vote and Subscribe

Please note- last night half of erep was banned by a hacked mod account. Anyone wondering where my last article has gone- they deleted it. They also banned me and deleted my friends 🙁 fortunately this has been fixed. Thanks for your continued support!



Dear Friends,

What is the most overlooked, least wrote about and yet most vital module in eRepublik? Certainly not the military module or democracy module: both of which get a lot of coverage, albeit mostly negative. No, our most poorly represented module in the media is the Economic module, and it’s so poorly represented that few candidates bother to dedicate a manifesto to it at all. It’s perhaps unsurprising- considering the title of my paper- that this is something I feel has to be a key part of my campaign to become your President.

First of all let me outline the importance of strong and certain economic policy. The Economic module controls the lives of every individual and the fortunes of every single country: every battle is funded by it; every soldier supplied by it; every wage paid by it; every product bought through it. It controls how much tax your country generates and how much money it has to spend on new player help. It determines every aspect of this game. When wages start to fall, and you find yourself waking up to a job cut- that is the economy module; when a country can’t afford MPPs to defend itself because consumer spending is dropping- that is the economy module. Every single aspect of this game is based on a strong and stable economy, and without a firm hand from government and a strong economic mind in the hot seat, the transfer to V2 will be very dangerous indeed.



Q1 weapons Markets, last 30 days, click for larger image, all images courtesy of ereptools.net

A hint of what to come? The question I have asked myself in the last few weeks is what will the economy look like in one month time. It’s a common question, and an understandable one. In V2 the economy will be very different- formulas, skills, companies- all of this will change. However, it is important that when we think about the future, we also study the lessons of the present. The eUK, and indeed the world, is currently in a mild recession. This is for two main reasons. Firstly, because the population of the world is consistently shrinking, this is reducing consumption and demand. Secondly, our economic module rewards players for staying in the game by increasing the amount they produce each day, which means that when citizens quit in huge numbers our older players become a higher percentage of the population, exacerbating the production glut.


UK Q3 Food Stocks, as population drops rapidly globally stocks rise quickly

A simple formula for understanding consumption is that:

Domestic Consumption + (Exports - Imports) = total consumption

Very simple isn’t it. And what’s more, the conclusion we can draw from this is that the level of consumption must approach the level of production for an economy to be stable. Our problem right now is that this isn’t the case. Moving on from this simple formula, we come once again to Keynes famous formula for aggregate demand. Aggregate demand is just a !! for the total drain on resources in the economy. High aggregate demand is what we want- it generates and circulates wealth, and leads to a boom in our economy.

Y = C + I + G (X - M)
Demand = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports)

Now if we consider that our domestic consumption is low, and our balance of imports is negative, then we’re in a little trouble here. Our economy produces more than we consume privately, and with investment down (due to people hoarding for V2) and government spending at its normal level, we are facing a major crash in every industry which is being repeated even now in every market in the world.



UK tax income over the past 4 week period

This graph shows (without revealing figures) the extent of the decline in tax income we have suffered nationally in the past four weeks. This is repeated in every country in both alliances. Our income is entirely based on income taxes, so this in effect represents the decline in wages over the past four weeks, both in terms of bulk (number of citizens working) and in terms of how what wages citizens receive.

It doesn’t take a genius to know that or economy is in trouble. Normally, the solution would lie in a combined plan involving mild devaluation, injection of GBP into the economy and an increased level of government involvement to boost aggregate demand. This is a tried and tested solution- we’ve done it before with proven results, and the plan has been emulated since by economists all around the world. However, now we get to the main problem: V2.



Current disposition of V2 skills, UK: courtesy of www.erep.cc

V2 represents a grand reorganisation of our skills on all levels. Nearly every industry save land will require multiple workers to produce goods. In the case of moving tickets and food, this will mean there will be a wellness and a happiness component to each item. In the case of Weapons, the different workers produce different parts of the weapon (whichever it is), which effects attack, defence, durability and damage. However, this is complicated by the fact that not everything is required in equal measure. For example, should you decide you want your food to produce wellness to happiness in ratio 2:1, then you would need twice as much production in the “producer” skill to the “marketing manager” and so on. This makes the V2 skillscape something difficult to predict.

However, it is vital that we make the attempt, and make it now. I am not going to use this manifesto to produce an accurate prediction of V2 and what skills we need, but I am going to try and guess. I have spoken to many of the world’s top economists, and by looking at our existing skill requirements for land, and our industries disposition, we can work out to some extent the demand for each skill type V2 will bring. Based upon calculations made by Turkish economist and Minister of Finance Kemal Ergenekon we can get some rough idea of how the job market would shape up if every market sector chose an equal number of every type required for it:
Producer: 12.22%
Marketing Manager: 12.22%
Carpenter: 5.84%
Architect: 5.23%
Project Manager: 2.54%
Builder: 6.15%
Engineer: 8.04%
Mechanic: 8.04%
Fitter: 8.04%
Technician: 8.04%
Harvester: 23.65%


Ideal disposition of skills assuming all industries choose to equally distribute customisation points

Now obviously we can’t assume that everyone will be going for exactly the same level of customisation, or that people will choose to distribute customisation points equally between each of the 2-4 areas each manufactured product covers. However we can make some assumptions- based on our understanding of wellness and happiness, it is safe to assume food will be weighted towards the former, not the latter. Similarly we can assume that the variable for moving tickets will be distance, rather than wellness or happiness. We can therefore assume that to increase the distance factor of each ticket we would simply increase the points and reduce the number of producers/marketing managers. So we can assume that the marketing managers and producers will be equal in number, yet the project managers could vary. Assuming initially an average of 3;3;4, simply because the majority of battles appear to likely move through just one or two zones, helps our predictions further. A mild bias in favour of technicians (in the private sector) is predicted. Though heavier quality weapons will be geared towards damage, the general public will probably want something which is cheaper per fight and thus has greater durability and so on.

In addition, demand for hospitals will be rising, however as yet the formulas for production and the amount of RM needed and so forth are pretty uncertain. Beta is beta after all, and until the admins definitively say one way or another I’m disinclined to do too much guessing. Presuming early indications are correct, we will need more hospitals, but they’ll require less productivity to build. This may result in us only needing a few more hospital companies than we have now, meaning a very slight rise in demand for the associated industries. Demand for housing on the other hand should definitely rise- houses will have a far greater role in wellness/happiness maintenance as well as having a finite life span. So we can expect a little more demand for the carpenter, architect and builder skills.

Finally, harvesting will be a massive variable. The admins are abolishing quality levels for land companies. How this will translate productivity wise is unknown. If the productivity is reduced so all land companies are restricted to Q1 level productivity as it stands, we will need twice as many workers in land as we do now, or about 35+% in land just to supply ourselves with food. It is likely that the admins, anticipating that, will make some effort to right the balance on grain production. Even so, a quick glance at the graph of existing migrated skills show we will have a shortage of land workers. To guess then, I would say that the actual required disposition of skills would be something like the following:



At this moment in time, we are grossly off target. I can only offer people this small graph, and ask them to take note. If you are in an industry with too many workers like engineering, switch to something that requires more, like harvesting. If you find yourself in an industry with a red +/- score at the end, that means there will be more workers than are needed, so you won’t be in demand. Conversely, those with blue scores are undermanned and wages will be higher. Remember, my predictions are conjecture- based on sound reasoning and academic consensus but at the end of the day just an educated guess. Remember as well that this can change as people migrate, and you should check here before you do anything.


So what am I most afraid of in V2? A double dip recession. We will probably see a spurt of investment and government stimulus which will pick up the markets, however long term a poor distribution of skills will cripple some sectors and force at least some workers to re-skill, losing a lot of progress. The UK government needs to be ready to take the excess slack. We will have a lot on our plates, with the necessity of expanding the MoW to cover every skill group, and the MoHA to contact those skill groups and redirect them before it’s too late. V2 economically is going to be a nightmare- the general consensus amongst older players is that it’ll be a case of click buttons and pray. This is not an ideal situation to say the least.

My goals upon entering V2 will be to rapidly analyse the new markets and work out what we need to do to support them. This will probably mean the reopening of the Ministry of Profit, though I may choose a slightly more serious name this time. The Ministry of Trade (which never actually closed) and the Ministry of Technology (ditto) will remain open as departments of the Ministry of Finance and Home Affairs respectively. In many cases, PMing teams and tech teams will be the backbone of our adventure in V2, analysing the changing economic situation and then trying to sort it out.

I hope that in reading this admittedly lengthy document you’ve realised that I am prepared for the V2 economy, that I’ve studied it and will continue to study it well into implementation. I know that the economy sometimes seems like a minor part of the UK, but nothing could be more important. We desperately need to work out simple things, like the optimum time-distribution for new players, soldiers, mid-age citizens, tanks and so on and get that information out there. It’s going to be the biggest challenge facing our President, and that’s why I’ve devoted a whole manifesto to showing my competence in this area. I hope that on the fifth of July, you’ll vote Iain Keers for President and put the UK in safe hands for V2.

Iain Keers

Ps. If you missed my previous articles, here is a selection:
The Economist ~ Running for Prime Minister
The Economist ~ The Economy is sick...again
The Economist ~ Reclaiming Congress
The Economist ~ Thieves in the night
The Economist ~ Alliance Grassroots
The Economist ~ Society and the State
The Economist ~ Rebuilding what we’ve lost



http://i43.tinypic.com/10r22yu.jpg" />
http://i44.tinypic.com/11h565y.jpg" />
http://i43.tinypic.com/etbinn.jpg" />
http://i41.tinypic.com/2nu3qlt.jpg" />
http://i42.tinypic.com/r072x1.jpg" />
http://i40.tinypic.com/1z4v9g3.jpg" />
http://i39.tinypic.com/23mtu86.jpg" />
http://i39.tinypic.com/okvfpt.jpg" />