The State of the World

Day 831, 17:47 • Published in USA Australia • by Aeros

As it seems the great conflict between EDEN and Phoenix has begun to cycle down, I think its time to do a recap. My last State of the World Analysis was delivered 6 months ago. To take a trip down memory lane, review this article

[url] http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/the-usa-is-entering-a-new-era-we-must-be-ready-950898/1/20[/url]

To briefly summarize, The opinion was the defeat of Russia, Hungary and Indonesia in the North American War spelled beginning of EDEN’s ascendance, with the primary focus of the future being Asia and Europe. I am somewhat pleased that my long term predictions held out, with the small exception being South America, which has for the most part remained largely ignored by the US and EDEN.

ASIA

Nonetheless, the United States retaliated against the Phoenix powers by attacking Asia. This campaign has ended inconclusively. The Indonesian Empire has been completely removed from Asia. Unfortunately, China remains largely under threat from Hungary and Serbia due in large part to the unforeseen variable of Pakistan land swapping Serbia to Asia. While Pakistan claimed just cause in its action to hand Liaoning over to the Serbs, the movement all but assured the Sol Alliance would be brought into the EDEN orbit. Sol has been trying very hard since the North American war erupted last year to negotiate a middle position between the warring powers. Unfortunately, the close proximity to Indonesia made this a largely fruitless goal. The Serbian/Pakistani intervention in the Asian Campaign was simply the final push. The move by Serbia has kept China’s High Iron regions under foreign control for the time being. The cost for Phoenix however is the shotgun marriage of Sol and EDEN. The final proof of progress for this would be the movement of Australia to attaining full membership in the EDEN Alliance after months of neutrality.

The future course of the United States’ Asian campaign now remains an open question. While Serbia and Hungary have been seeing a major spike in activity, the United States has been rapidly atrophying, having lost 2,000 citizens overall since January. While America remains a potent force, it will not be able to go 1 v 1 against Serbia, who possesses a far more active and dedicated population. While most major powers in EDEN have grown in strength since the North American War, the United States now packs less punch then it did 4 months ago at the Battle of Nunavut. As consequence, we will see the United States increasingly moving into the orbit of Spain and Poland, without whose support US Goals will be unobtainable.


EUROPE

The Failure of the Phoenix Alliance to halt the advance of Spain and Poland was a serious strategic defeat. The Spanish Victory over France and the Polish victory over Germany solidified massive baby booms in these countries and their dominance over western and Central Europe. This control is evidenced by the subsequent EDEN Campaigns in Austria and the Czech Republic that saw Phoenix scrambling. The only bright spot in the entire conflict is the success Phoenix had at preventing Poland from entering South America, an event that would have had dire consequences for Brazil and Argentina.

Just like Asia, Europe is a mixed bag. While the Spanish and Polish victories were spectacular, they are tempered by defeats by Romania and Greece. Where the Polish and Spanish campaigns were textbook examples of superb coordination between two countries, the Romanian and Greek Campaign in Southeastern Europe and Anatolia was an example of misplaced objectives and coordination failure at a tactical level. Romania burned through Bulgaria in epic fashion before crashing into the Marmora region of Turkey. The problem for Romania was that this area was also the site of a major Greek operation. Marmora was the present target of a Greek initiative locking battle. Unfortunately, Romania burned through its national treasury to bring down the wall in its own battle for Marmora. While Marmora was secured for Romania, it closed the Greek battle inconclusively and permitted the Turks to counterattack, capturing the Aegean Islands. This led to attacks on Greece’s High Iron regions, a Hungarian invasion of Romania, and a general FUBAR situation that forced the United States to strike Hungarian Heilongjiang prematurely in order to stabilize the Central European Front. While the American strike succeeded with respect to ending the Hungarian invasion of Romania, it also brought the Asian campaign to a sudden close with the Hungarian’s recapturing initiative in this sector.

This defeat was what permitted the Serbian land swap to Asia to occur, and also led to great disappointment in Romania that was taken out on the EDEN Alliance. It was a bitter pill to swallow, seeing the USA, Spain and Poland emerging so successful in their campaigns only to see the Romanian effort go down in flames. Had the shoe been on the other foot, I would assume strongly that the US would have reacted the same way.

The Long term situation in Europe remains mixed. France and Germany have returned in limited scope. Unlike the United Kingdom however, these countries will most likely not reach a final settlement with EDEN. The principle issues involved remain Spain and Poland’s claims of sovereignty over High resource regions in the occupied sectors of France and Germany. This problem is particularly acute for France. The French stubbornly refused to admit defeat to the point that they were wiped out in a joint effort by Spain and Poland. The end result was that France now had to negotiate with two invading countries for a settlement. Both countries want High Wood out of the deal, and France only has two High Wood, and they are both high in land resource and manufacturing companies.




FINAL ANALYSIS

By and large, the last 6 months have ended more or less as predicted. The United States retaliated decisively in Asia, and Europe was engulfed in a General War that has ended in an EDEN Victory. I claim this liberally, due to the victories of Spain and Poland, and the successful defense of Greece and Romania. And now the question.

What will the next 6 months bring?

Expect the United States to continue to decrease in power over the coming months. The lack of any viable threat to the homeland removes pretty much any major reason for American’s to want to play eRepublik. America’s weakening position will result in the country increasingly marrying its foreign policy to either Spain or Poland (or both) in much the same way Indonesia was forced to accept Hungarian supremacy. While the US will remain a potent force in its own right, it will increasingly be overshadowed by its larger allies.

Phoenix will attempt to free as much of France and Germany as possible, and eventually Poland and Spain will give ground. They will however, maintain control of High Resource regions by moving population to these sectors and making resistance wars cost prohibitive. All signs are trending towards a general stabilization of the European Sector. Phoenix cannot risk further activation of MPP’s in this region, and continuing conflict with Spain and Poland will come with a risk to colonies in Asia.

To that end, the focus for the next 6 months will be Asia, and South America. The United States will eventually make a move against Serbia in Liaoning, coupled with an attack on Pakistan. In South America, Spain and Poland will prepare for their own invasion of Brazil, possibly with support from South Africa and Australia, two countries with a serious axe to grind with the Brazilians. Much of this will be contingent on Version 2, and will probably not be occurring before its release. Due to the introduction of Lana and the train for gold module, National Treasuries have sustained major losses, that have coincided with population increases in target provinces like Liaoning and Heilongjiang. Simply put, countries can no longer afford to declare an attack, and then invade a territory without first spending weeks, or even months, saving up the money for the effort. In the case of the two Asian pillars, a campaign of almost a week uninterrupted may be necessary to secure them for EDEN. And that requires more Gold then is presently available, especially since the target is Hungary.