Shell Game

Day 460, 19:28 • Published in USA Switzerland • by BravoRomeoDelta

There has been a lot of recent discussion (check here and here for more detailed information) about the imminent head on collision of Romania and PEACE, specifically on the flashpoint of the border between Romanian-held West Siberian Region and the now Pakistani (which yesterday belonged to Iran with four other regions) held region of Xinjiang. I have written previously about the potential for conflict on this volatile border region, and it now seems that events are starting to unfold.

The handover of regions by Iran to Pakistan was clearly precipitated by a Romanian declaration of war against Iran that went to vote just before the end of Day 459. Until a new declaration of war against Pakisstan can be drafted, it looks like the Romanian declaration of war will end in a fizzle rather than a bang.

However, the recent experience of the Thai Highway does suggest an interest alternative for Romania: Romanian declaration of war against China.

Romania could sign an agreement with China in which Romania declares war against both Pakistan and China, then starts a RW in Xinjiang province.

The options unfold as follows:

1) Pakistan retreats from Xinjiang before either Romanian declaration of war is passed. The declaration of war against China passes, Romania moves into Xinjiang.
1a) Pakistan or Iran immediately move into the region to invade, China withdraws, and then Romania attacks one of the surrounding Iranian or Pakistani-held provinces.
1b) Pakistan and Iran don't counterattack, Romania invades China, China withdraws, and then Romania can attack Iran and/or Pakistan

2) Pakistan continues to fight, and eventually beats the resistance in China. Romania then attacks Pakistan.
2a) There are a number of ways that the Pakistanis and Iranians could continue to swap the territory of Xinjiang back and forth to prevent Romania from having an opportunity to invade, but these are all based on the idea that they would be able to keep conflict going indefinitely and maintain control of the outcome. A foreign expeditionary force from Atlantis would make this very, very difficult.

3) There is an outside chance that another PEACE country, such as Indonesia or Turkey could be given enough territory to take control of Xinjiang, but the same methods would apply in that case as apply here.

4) Further, the swapping of territories can be forestalled through the use of resistance wars. A series of resistance wars throughout occupied China would make the further exchange of territories between Pakistan and Iran very difficult in the extreme.

There are two other considerations that make this interesting - a similar opportunity exists for Norway in Eastern Siberia if the Norwegians are able to regain full control of their political apparatus and taking a leading role in Atlantis again. Secondly, the new - and as yet untested - structure of alliances could mean that Atlantis and/or "PEACE" could bring an unprecedented amount of strength to the battlefield in a very short amount of time.