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Election Analysis: Unity vs. AFA today and tomorrow.

Day 1,843, 10:31 Published in USA USA by Candor

So enough about you, let’s talk about me for awhile.

I’m sitting at home this morning eating donuts and drinking diet Mountain Dew. Maple bars, mostly.



"Well Candor, if you’re eating donuts, and particularly maple bars, why are you bothering with diet soda?"

I’ve just gotten used to diet Mountain Dew really, and it’s all I buy. On a more prepared morning, I’d be drinking a couple of AMPs. But alas I’m out today. I have maple bars and you don't :p

Moving on.



My pre-election predictions:

Inwegen 1475____________Actual 1337.
Hanibal 1000____________Actual 997
Publius 100_____________Actual 71
TGOTJ 80______________Actual 62
Romanian 65____________Actual 64

I’m going to call that pretty much a solid B. But let’s discuss where I got it wrong (Inwegen) and why.

Inwegen wasn't the only candidate seriously missing votes. Publius was missing better than 33% of what should be expected as well. He's been playing since they turned the game on. So I’m going to begin with where these two lost votes together.


Old couple no one knows

Both Inwegen and Publius are meta players entirely. You don’t know them eAmerica. You once did, but you don’t really now. And that hurt them both with players who never meta but do occasionally read media. We generically call these folks two-clickers. And they are numerous. Roughly half of all eAmericans never venture past the in game at all. Never.

Both of these two guys have put in more hours in service to the nation than 95% of all players that have ever stepped foot into the game. But they have little interest in participating in media, so they may as well be Indonesians to half our citizenry. If you want two-clickers to see you, you have to write frequently.



That lack of face time cost them both votes, Publius doing no better than a random Romanian and a SFP placeholder (The Ghost of Tom Joad, who is active in media and will one day be a serious contender for elected office). Name recognition should have pulled in more votes for Publius. I severely over estimated Publius name recognition. Two clickers don’t have a clue who he is. And this ends the Publius story.

Two clickers don’t know who Inwegen is either, but most are aware of the Unity/AFA battle by now, and cast for Unity 2-to-1 over AFA.

So let’s move on to the four issues which are effecting participation in general. This election we saw a significant drop in participation on the Unity side of the equation. Why?

1) Running unknowns
2) Bonus losses
3) Tight borders
4) Unity Elections

Special mention: Lack of creativity.



The first reason is because Unity ran a candidate people didn't know. Look at the candidates, and consider from a two-clicker vantage point, or even a mildly involved players view point. They really didn’t recognize any of the people who were running.

Hanibal writes, but not enough and what he does write isn't very interesting to the “potty” crowd. The “potty” crowd wants something they can read quickly, that offers sex, humor, or short situational synopsis. They don’t read the long boring Unity/AFA fight stuff, they lost interest in that a couple months ago.

Inwegen doesn't write at all.

It was a Dangerous game Unity played running an unknown in game, and it's a foolish game AFA is playing doing the same.



The second reason we’re all losing participation is because we've given up some bonuses. That’s hurting AFA membership recruitment and retention, yes, but it’s hurting Unity membership and retention too. And AFA has a serious advantage over Unity because...



...the third reason Unity numbers are down is that Unity runs tight borders. AFA will let anyone in, while Unity is being stingy as hell with citizenship's. Unity for months has had this theory that not letting people in somehow hurts AFA more than Unity. That is dead wrong, and always has been. Unity needs to open the borders and run invitational campaigns in friendly nations, particularly eAlbania (for which a friendly party exists here to make them feel welcome and at home) and eBrazil.



And the final reason Unity is losing participation is because people aren't seeing campaigning in the media. With Unity Elections beginning the 18th (or so) of every month (by necessity), by the time the actual POTUS election takes place on the 5th the more moderately involved in game players aren't feeling like they have any choices at all. Unity Elections themselves are harming interest in elections.

So let me finish by telling you what next month looks like. Next month AFA will pull in 1100 votes or so. Unity will continue a decline, to the 1200 level, where it will level off and remain indefinitely. But AFA will continue to gain momentum as the brass ring seems closer to foreign nationals and non-eAmericans.



Next month will be a real race. We're talking a 100 point spread, which is too close to call. But then it’s over. In February AFA takes the Presidency.

I've given Unity four trends they can reverse if they choose to which could change the equation completely. But my last comment on that will be this:



They thought the Titanic was unsinkable, until it sank. Were I Unity leadership (the Executive), I’d be looking a bit more closely at the ships design. There are indeed some major flaws.

Get thinking outside the box. That box is suffocating you.


Dutifully Submitted,


 

Comments

nui04
nui04 Day 1,843, 11:07

Was gonna say tl;dr, but then i read.

Ghost of Tom Joad
Ghost of Tom Joad Day 1,843, 11:07

I knew who Hannibal LA was before I learned who inwegen was.

KOSOVA Batoa
KOSOVA Batoa Day 1,843, 11:10

Good article and pretty solid predictions for the future especially

FirstLaw
FirstLaw Day 1,843, 11:18

I swear that your my long lost brother, Candor. I've been trying to say the same thing for months. You mind if I add some things?

A better immigration policy will help Unity but may not be effective until they get the bonuses back. Who will immigrate from a prosperous country to one with a terrible economy?

Even if we got the bonuses back it may back fire because AFA has members that speak multiple languages. Which party would you sign up for if you don't speak English?

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 11:21

^^^ We do have a great eAlbanian party here, which was one reason I specifically mentioned them.

I think eUSA attracts people just by being eUSA to be honest. It's again that fantasy of playing American. Can we retain older players? maybe not. But we can draw new younger one's from around the world

FirstLaw
FirstLaw Day 1,843, 11:24

Yes, your right, but unfortunately, AFA is much better organized to appeal to younger players. It doesn't take long wandering around the metagame for a younger player to be disenfranchised the way it is currently set up.

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 11:39

Unity has better media and at this point, that's a serious advantage. Though they have allowed themselves to become quite negative, which turns off readers. But yes, Congress is stifled, which is disenfranchising. My advice to a new player is stay out of Congress at this point, it's not a place conducive to problem solving atm.

Syz2
Syz2 Day 1,843, 11:40

Excellent points Candor. I feel your analysis and predictions to be fairly accurate. Voted

Thermaikos
Thermaikos Day 1,843, 12:15

I hate "unity candidate" and i didnt vote for inwegen and Hanibal LA.

The Artful Dodge
The Artful Dodge Day 1,843, 12:15

Going off of what FirstLaw said, we need to find new ways to appeal to new players beyond just trying to scare them away from the AFA. They need a reason to vote with us, not just reasons to vote against the other guys.

Plainswalker
Plainswalker Day 1,843, 12:19

I think you overestimate yourselves a bit. People come to eUSA for bonuses only, there is no particular desire to be American. I'm not counting ptoers, they go everywhere.
What strikes me as being rather odd is why on earth would you ask a small country like Albania to come to your aid? Especially when most players are already in your country. The others are just multies.

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 12:28

Starting the campaigning for the next president less than 2 weeks into a term isn't helpful. It actually seems very counterproductive if the idea is Unity.

I do agree that choosing behind-the-scenes people to be the face of unity is odd.

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 12:46

^^^ Fg would be a good choice for Unity Candidate. She writes a lot and is probably well recognized, and being a girl always draws votes.

FG: The schedule could be condensed a little, but it's all wrapped up on the 1st, since it locks in the 2nd. You need time to campaign, and then hold party primaries. Probably the best one could do is kick out the campaigning 5 days, maybe?

But the Unity guy hasto campaign thru the 5th to draw Two clicker votes.

George Griffin
George Griffin Day 1,843, 13:03

Candor o/

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 13:06

Like right after Congressional elections, maybe? The next day?

I mean I guess it went okay this last time because Inwegen was such an unknown. He had lots of time to get to know people and answer questions and work the voters. He really needed that time and he used it well.

But for someone like JJ, it cut into his leads. Being relatively well-known was his biggest advantage and that was neutralized by announcing so early. The growing frustration of his supporters didn't help much either.

Drew Blood
Drew Blood Day 1,843, 13:08

^^^ Fg would be a good choice for Unity Candidate. She writes a lot and is probably well recognized, and being a girl always draws votes.x2

Vote with a hydraulic hammer....

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 13:18

So 26/27/28 to declare, 29/30/1 for primaries? That's tight.

Prior to Unity Elections, CP started the 26th for a vote on the 5th. Roughly 9 days.
Now Unity CP has to lock in by reset the 2nd, AND an "election" has to take place in there too (primaries).

But I don't think that's as much a problem as is a lack of campaigning the 2nd-5th by the Unity side tbh. We've lost a lot of CP-centric media without campaigns thru the day of the vote.

MaestroAkel
MaestroAkel Day 1,843, 13:19

this just excellent

New Faustian Man
New Faustian Man Day 1,843, 13:51

Good read. Voted.

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 13:55

Well regardless, starting on the 18th is just seems waaaaaay too early

24/25/26? How about that?

It's still kinda tight, but declaring IS campaigning. Or should be, I'd think. And for a player who is already known and hits the media, is more than that really necessary?

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 13:56

Ohhh Candor, meant to ask if you preferred the system that was used this month?

Electoral college and all that

anonymoushooligan
anonymoushooligan Day 1,843, 14:04

We haven't always agreed on things, but I would vote for fingerguns so hard I'd need a new mouse. And the electoral college system this month was a very cool idea. Big props to rainy sunday for the work on that.

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 14:09

You know what I DID like was the massive effort to proactively include 6th parties and their members.

One problem, 6ths don't hold primaries as a rule, so it's more a vote of a PP, and I heard about a lot of behind the scenes...arm twisting fg. Left some people feeling...not pleased. And that "twisting" came from both sides.

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 14:18

Do you think 6ths should start holding proper primaries?

I suppose arm-twisting is one of the political realities that drove them into the 6ths in the first place.

hmmmm

Stephen Thomas Robinson
Stephen Thomas Robinson Day 1,843, 14:18

Great read. Voted. I must ask though,With this bold(And Accurate) prediction, are we not as a society strapping ourselves down? It seems as if we don't have any popular party that is ambitious as to the things we could do as a Nation, rather than a system of political parties. Perhaps we need to shift the tide a bit and remind America that we are fighting together for this country. Disagreements will be huge and differed opinions will never leave, but as a nation we need to stop the mud fights.

Vijalob
Vijalob Day 1,843, 14:26

Who is Publius?

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 14:47

"arm-twisting is one of the political realities that drove them into the 6ths in the first place."

I love that you went there all on your own, I almost said that! They're also not nearly as active or organized, so primaries won't work in all but the 10th-7th. Maybe iNCi too, idk. I've no solution to offer atm, why I never wrote anything on it. Yet anyway

Norbengo
Norbengo Day 1,843, 14:56

Publius is the greatest man among the meta players. I'm sorry we can't see him much ingame.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,843, 15:03

Candor, #7 is in our column

NueveOcho
NueveOcho Day 1,843, 15:03

voted

Waysted
Waysted Day 1,843, 15:25

u are the man!

Candor
Candor Day 1,843, 15:45

"Candor, #7 is in our column" ~ RGR

I was commenting on the ability of a party to hold primaries by sheer size and activity level. If we were classifying them by Unity or AFA, SFP would rather not declare at all, they like to be free to do as they wish. And AUP would prefer to stay neutral in domestic politics as well. iNCi is obv Kemal + a very few. Idk the other two well enough to surmise.

pop George
pop George Day 1,843, 16:08

but if the "in" crowd is winning (?) why should they change, they are still winning....

Bia Pandora
Bia Pandora Day 1,843, 16:34

Great article as always.

And would vote NO on FG as Unity. Same group, same rationale, only this one has boobs. Sorry.

fingerguns
fingerguns Day 1,843, 17:16

I dunno, I hear Pfeiffer has boobs.

Your Loving Mother
Your Loving Mother Day 1,843, 18:07

Ouch, can I get in on this cat fight?

rainy sunday
rainy sunday Day 1,843, 20:05

I wrote a tl;dr comment, timed out and lost it.

Short reply: I agree with some but not all of the sentiments of this article.

Your Loving Mother
Your Loving Mother Day 1,843, 20:29

Let me guess, you hate doughnuts and/or diet Mt. Dew.

obenitedang
obenitedang Day 1,843, 20:33

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........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
.........\.................'...../
..........''...\.......... _.·´
............\..............(

PUBLIUS FIST
COPY AND PASTE THIS PUBLIUS FIST AND SEND IT TO 5 OF YOUR FRIENDS OR YOU'RE NOT A REAL PUBLIUS

Publius
Publius Day 1,843, 21:04

...........
...................__
............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸
........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
.........\.................'...../
..........''...\.......... _.·´
............\..............(

PUBLIUS FIST
COPY AND PASTE THIS PUBLIUS FIST AND SEND IT TO 5 OF YOUR FRIENDS OR YOU'RE NOT A REAL PUBLIUS

George Armstrong Custer
George Armstrong Custer Day 1,843, 21:46

still alive.

TheNorm
TheNorm Day 1,844, 23:08

Ask yourself this, what is the reason for a Unity candidate, tight borders, lack of bonuses... Reason: The AFA, period. Solutions, the gov has been working on that but things are getting tiresome, the crowds are wary. So what do we/me/you do ? You side with the AFA, and let anarchy reign for a month or 2 of total chaos and see where the cards fall or you continue to resist them. I don't like what I've been seeing lately, but things would be worse with the AFA as things stand atm.

Supernana
Supernana Day 1,844, 23:10

Excellent !

TheNorm
TheNorm Day 1,844, 23:15

Also wanted to say, in all honesty thinking that anyone other then the Unity or AFA candidate would get a large % of the votes shows how out of touch you actually are with how things are in the game right now. Everyone in the eUS pretty much votes for the Unity candidate, as they are really the eUS elected PotUS just done outside the game. The other % goes to the AFA candidate.

The reason there was less voting is simple, a good % of people just choose not to vote. Which is a fair choice.

Ghost of Tom Joad
Ghost of Tom Joad Day 1,844, 23:17

I would vote for FG, not because someone has to make me.
I don't have a big problem with the people. I don't like following orders and then calling that democracy.

Cheese Whizard
Cheese Whizard Day 1,844, 23:25

Instead of a single unity candidate that we don't all agree on, we should have the most popular run for president, but the top three nominees should all be the defacto oligarchical executive office or at least the unity losers should still have advisement roles to the president that way the rest of us who's favored candidate didn't win the unity election doesn't feel cheated

Ghost of Tom Joad
Ghost of Tom Joad Day 1,844, 00:26

I like that cheeze hhwhizard, Fingerguns and Cheeze HWizard are the top candidates so far.

It seems like more thought went exclusion than anything. They were just like, just do it, or the bad-guys win.


cool hwhip... hwhat!

Candor
Candor Day 1,844, 00:34

I bought some AMPS for tomorrow. I'm going to Jones for maple bars though. Shite.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,844, 01:42

Also, I just realized something you said Candor...........

Did you say Hanibal LA is an unknown?

Next to me, he is the most recognized person in our party.

This is his 2nd CP campaign, he is ex-CP, 3-time Congressman...

His writing has been less frequent lately, but still.

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,844, 01:43

ex-PP*

 
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