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Following eChina and EDEN’s successful defense of Liaoning and Xinjiang on Day 777, the war in China has hit a period of inertia with no new battles opened by either side that went the full 24 hours-- a rarity in this phase of the war which has lasted just under a month. With Hello Kitty having been secured by eHungary a few days prior, it appears that Phoenix may be complacent with the state of the war in Asia without pushing their luck in an offensive, and EDEN is likely waiting for a few breaks elsewhere to neutralize the challenges against their advancement in China. After objectively looking at both alliances’ situations in China, I examine how Europe became the priority of both alliances today and offer a few scenarios which might return the focus to China.


The state of the war in China, as of 21:00 on Day 779.
eHungary= bright green, eRussia= dark blue, eUSA= light blue, eChina= red

Explaining the Inertia
Phoenix
For Phoenix, the most important dual successes were the successful defense of Heilongjiang and the conquest of Inner Mongolia. The impact of Hello Kitty has been covered at length and goes without saying, but eRep geography in China (see the map, or browse eGobba’s Map for yourself) shows the strategic importance of Inner Mongolia for any defense of Hello Kitty. Inner Mongolia is one of the two regions of China (eRussian-controlled Jillin is the other) which borders Heilongjiang; however, Inner Mongolia also touches 8 eChinese regions. This second fact makes Inner Mongolia the ideal point from which eHungary could launch an offensive on eChina’s fortress of Beijing, the well-known Liaoning (Lion King), and other regions with numerous raw materials, but it also gives eHungary a region swap blocker against a range of regions which the eUSA would need to traverse to approach Hello Kitty. In effect, Phoenix control of Inner Mongolia, as long as the region’s occupier has an active war with the eUSA, will be able to deter EDEN from advancing without the risk of counterattack. Similarly, Inner Mongolia is itself protected for Phoenix by its proximity to eRussian regions.

The bottleneck that keeps EDEN from advancing on Hello Kitty also explains why Phoenix has not pushed south. As the map looks now, eRussia would need to win in Liaoning in order to advance in China and be relevant in other Chinese-region battles. Phoenix likely wants to attack EDEN simultaneously in China in order to spread out EDEN’s military responsibilities and increase their chances of removing the eUSA from the country. For obvious strategic and material reasons, EDEN cannot tolerate a Phoenix presence in Lion King and has demonstrated that it will go to great lengths to keep it in EDEN or eChinese hands. An alternative strategy would be for eRussia to move in the Korean Peninsula and conquer portions of eSouth Korea, so it could move beyond the bottleneck and be able to strike eChinese Shandong or Jiangsu, and from there move towards eUSA positions or other eChinese regions.

A final wrinkle to Phoenix’s position in China is the new eHungarian administration’s goals, in which eHungary apparently wants to hold Liaoning on 5 February. For eRussia to continue south and join in a possible Phoenix offensive, they would need to move through Liaoning, or alternatively, conquer Xinjiang in the western part of the country. It is possible that eRussia would concede the high iron region to their Phoenix big brother since eRussia already has two high iron regions of their own, but that small complication could have domestic political consequences in eRussia and would likely be a topic filling Phoenix backroom discussions. Also worth considering is the number of MPPs which eRussia has activated versus the eUSA; Phoenix may reason that eRussia would be better to hold the region until shortly before 5 Feb, and could then attempt an offensive.

EDEN
For the reasons mentioned above, EDEN has not risked advancing towards Heilongjiang. eRussia’s rejuvenation under an active president will make any advance on Hello Kitty near impossible without an eRussian counterattack, unless an ally were to block eRussia by attacking an eRussian region. Rumors have circulated that ePoland, coming off its baby boom and progress against eGermany, may be gearing for an attack on eRussia; ePoland is in an excellent position to do this, as they directly border a natively eRussian fortress of Kaliningrad, with over 3600 citizens and dual Q5 infrastructure. ePoland would be able to quickly attack eRussia after a hypothetical declaration of war, but they would risk activating eRussia’s extensive network of mutual protection pacts (MPPs) in the process. eNorway, eFinland, and eChina could also initiate a blocking campaign on eRussia, but except for eChina would also have to declare war, and would be risking its survival by attacking a much larger country with many more allies. eCanada could region swap with the eUSA at Alaska and also block eRussia, but not many in the Brolliance would be thrilled at the idea of opening the door for Phoenix to North America again.

Combined
In short, the northern China bottleneck is inhibiting EDEN from achieving its objectives of toppling the 3rd pillar without exposing itself to counterattack, but the bottleneck is also keeping Phoenix from getting both of its members in position to pursue further attacks. Consequently, the past day of military developments have taken place away from China.

Now What?
Well, the focus of the war has shifted to Europe for the time being, although eSerbia remains poised on the doorstep of India and may complete their traversal of the ePakistani land bridge at any time. Europe has intensified recently because, although EDEN has maintained steady control of the battle there (save for the eRomanian front, which has ebbed and flowed), two more Phoenix-friendly countries face conquest by EDEN: eFrance and eGermany. Indeed, much of both alliances’ battle orders for the day have been to fight for or against eGermany as eSpain and ePoland have carved the country in half and are forcing Phoenix to decide whether to let eGermany enter the “former countries” list or to keep it on life support. Moreover, eFrance’s recent defeat at North Calais also solidifies the country’s fate, as they now have no more infrastructure and have very little keeping themselves from falling entirely to the eSpanish.

The eRomanian front is a different situation, as eHungary’s most recent attack on Crisana was repelled by eRomania (see the numbers here). eBulgaria, fighting from its one remaining region, launched a blocking attack to keep the EDEN power bogged down and unable to regain the initiative; however, as eHungary’s political goals have now made the eRomanian front less important, the front is no longer a Phoenix offensive. Instead, it has become a focal point for bogging EDEN down and refusing to yield initiative to eRomania. Nonetheless, it still matters to Phoenix as eRomania has their MPPs activated and could do some damage were they to counterattack. As a result, the eRomanian front will likely remain quiet for the foreseeable future unless one of the Phoenix presidents forgets to renew an attack on the EDEN country.

Senior military leaders from Phoenix and EDEN both have some big decisions to make in the upcoming days

Turnaround?
The most likely scenario that reinvigorates the Chinese theater is if eHungary goes for their political goal and attacks the Lion King. Without a doubt, we would see EDEN look to deny the leading Phoenix nation from getting a second iron region; the hypothetical “Second Battle of Liaoning” would also hold psychological and propaganda implications, as well, since the first was a heavily touted EDEN victory and one step towards removing Phoenix from their iron lifelines. A Phoenix flag over Liaoning would be a retrogression for EDEN in the most important theater and would be a sign for Phoenix that the war had turned in their favor. We could also see eRussia attack Liaoning, and if they were to succeed, we could expect a Phoenix offensive to unfold in China.

eRussia could also reinvigorate the Chinese front either by attacking Xinjiang, or by trying to region swap through the Korean Peninsula. Xinjiang would serve to move behind the Liaoning bottleneck, and if successful, could give eSerbia another region swapping land bride from their position in ePakistan to move towards Liaoning. Such a move would greatly strengthen a strong but resource-strapped partner for Phoenix. EDIT: eRussia did attack Xinjiang on Day 779, but quickly retreated after 3 hours. China is again quiet.

Any eRomanian initiative could also sway the front in Asia, as an attack by eRomania on eHungary would require some eHuns to defend their mainland, and would prevent eHungary from focusing entirely on Heilongjiang. eHungary knows this and is continuing the blocking efforts on eRomania; were another EDEN member like eCroatia to try and block eHungary, that may free up eRomania and could change the stalemate in the Southern European front. This second scenario would make it easier for the eUSA to consider attacking Hello Kitty, but eRussia’s presence would still be a concern. If the possible ePolish attack on eRussia were to take place, then the block of eHungary may give EDEN the opening to approach eHungary’s jewel a second time. As we have seen before, that would only be the beginning of the real fight.

God Bless America,

Lt. Scheisskopf

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