Join the new world

This is what you would call an Intro, now I am kinda assuming if you read this article you have read my previous one... in the series I suppose. I am expecting some tl;dr but hopefully the people who make things happen read it at least. (It may also be wise to read the debate in congress, since that is the originating point of the whole debate)

Our wages are low... this means to me that we have one of a couple problems:

1. High volume of Workers driving demand down
2. Low prices/volume driving break-even down
3. Low wages pushing workers into other sectors


Now you have all so eloquently articulated that we are short on workers... my first thought is really? are you sure?
So I checked out the ereptools.net to see if it was true, this is what I found

42 Manu companies in eSA ATM That equals a maximum of 420 jobs. Now we all know that everyone of those companies are even available to work, some are in long forgotten orgs, others the GM has no interest in. Now I'm going to assume for the basis of this argument that 3/4 of the companies are active, or could be active in a short period of time. So lets take 75% of 420, ok 315 jobs. (If you really think I'm off base here please fill me in, I think it is a pretty good assumption)

Ok, so we have 315 Manu jobs in eSA. How many employees? The latest # is 664. (courtesy of ereptools.net)
Ok, # of Jobs '\ (those are upside down Check-marks in case you didn't know)
# of Employees '\
Ok, so we just need to figure out the number of Manu workers now; well again I went for a stroll to ereptools.net and used the friendly ratio they give us. About 48% of skill in eSA is Manu... huh that seems pretty reasonable.

So 48% of 664 citizens is 318 (+/- 1)

So lets do a little look at what we know; 315 jobs, 318 workers.

Huh, weird sure seems like a pretty good ratio to me. (there was actually a study done on this by a person much smarter then me he came to the conclusion that a industry/sector is most healthy when the # of jobs/workers is 1.1/1)

Ok, well it doesn't seem that we have WAY to few workers compared to Jobs available so what other reason could the low competition be caused by?

Reasons for low wages:
1. High volume of Workers driving demand down
2. Low prices/volume driving break-even down
3. Low wages pushing workers into other sectors

Well #2 or #3 it is but lets take a look:

Well this is where it gets complicated, now I not only have to look at the population and supplying power of local companies but I also have to look at every other country that is stealing the Market share by importing... hrmmm how to tackle this?

Ok, what countries are importing to us. (well I can't do every country, so lets do what we can)
Weapons (chose the 3 Best offers from each Q and listed the country if it wasn't doubled up or local)
Austria '\
Argentina X (War that was just opened)
Brazil '\
Portugal '\
Russia '\
Ireland '\
U.S. '\

Food
Singapore '\
Italy '\
Brazil '\


Gifts
1 offer from Argentina, will close soon because of open war.
Import Free 😃

Moving Tickets
No serious Imports

Ok, so that looks a little more reasonable, we have really only issues in the Weapons sector. I mean there is some trouble in the Q1 food area, Singapore is dominating that with a huge amount of import but I'm not too concerned. Q1 food is pretty cut-throat, especially after the hospital change really hosed over consumption of low Q food. The Domination shown in Q3 and Q4 areas more then makes up for it imo, although we could probably see some more production in the Q3-Q4 range for food and have no issue with sales.

Hmmm, so it seems that the Food, Gifts and Moving Tickets sectors are doing pretty good, either with some or none import issues. So again the problem lands squarely on the Weapons Industry.

Ok, first things first what do we have out there for companies. Well not much active, we have one at 7 employees and a couple at 1 or 2. The total production of eSA weapons atm is about 70 Q1's a day... weak sauce.

Now I don't know if you remember my comment in my previous article about how I said that the weapons industry is the most Important because it has "Variable Consumption" Now I explained what I meant by that in my previous article if your lost read on or check that out in the previous article/post.

So assuming that more jobs in the Gifts/MT's/Food area isn't going to increase wages, since consumption is linear and if supply increases prices drop, which then cause profit issues and GM's are forced to cut wages or close. But, in the case of the weapons industry we have what I cal variable consumption. In the Weapons industry we can have HUGE stockpiles (I know I've done it) and then none in days,or even hours if the conditions are right. Because of this dynamic many companies have the gumption to stick out long droughts without much for sales because they know when we attack Brazil, or some other big battle the amount stock is going to plummet, country wide.

Ok, so why would we want to overproduce firstly?
1. High Competition means higher wages, this also means higher prices (likely) but that's what the Import Tax is there to police. "The sky is NOT the limit, the Import Tax is"
2. Higher wages means MORE workers, this could be people deciding to train that skill up because of good wages or even if the wages are high enough large numbers of foreign workers are possible. "Heh, take that Europe your low prices and low wages are backfiring now"
3. Increased amount of cash flowing into eZAn's pockets, if you can move this money into loyal citizens pockets they are less likely to immediately turn it into Gold. "The Monetary Market used to be a free fall, dealt that a swift blow"

Ok, back to the Weapons industry. So what do you figure is a good amount of production for a country? 10 weapons per day per citizen? 1? Well I'm going to be a little arbitrary here because I don't really know, I have an idea but it is hard to quantify exact numbers. For this argument I am going to use 3, 3 is a pretty cool number half way to 5 and all that jazz. Ok, so why 3? well I figure most people don't fight with 5 weapons everyday, maybe a couple times a week. For an average country I figure 4 days of weapons a week is a pretty decent amount. 3x7= 21 4x5=20 (same dif)

Now of course some people supply their own weapons from over seas, or others don't fight at all, so I figure 3/citizen/day will over time build up a pretty decent stockpile and be able to absorb most average conflicts.

Ok, so what number of consumers should we account for? hrmmm well seems like a pretty safe guess to say people that are working in eSA are going to buy in eSA, lets go with that. 664 consumers in the eSA market.

So what should our daily production be then? Assuming my 3/person/day is right we are looking at about 2000/day

😮 whoa wait a minute that is ALOT of guns, seems like an absurd number of weapons when you take our current output of about 70/day
Hmmm.. how can I compare this to a similar market?

Well lets think about what we are wanting:
1. medium level import taxes
2. Few imports
3. High competition between Industries for employees (ie. Manu vs. Land) which means they MUST have a High RM. ok, that really helps.
hrmmm anything else? oh right
4. No exports

Ok, so countries that we can use we will ignore Grain and Wood RM since they aren't particularity profitable. So Oil, Diamonds and Iron. Lets list a couple that fit.
ok, one RM at a time.

Oil: Brazil, Indonesia, China, Iran, Russia, US, Canada
Iron: Russia, Hungary, Serbia, Brazil, Greece, US
Diamonds: South Africa (duh), Canada, Russia, Australia

ok, so I definitely should add some qualifiers to that above list there are a couple too many to choose from
5. RM is in original region, I think this would really influence the mentality of a country I think you agree
6. Not really big, heck I don't want to spend the next days looking at Russian companies.
7. No active wars that are unduly affecting the mentality of citizens, (I might be stretching a bit here, but even though eSA is under occupation it doesn't have the attitude of a country at war.)

Now I know what some of you are thinking right now, oh what a surprise he is going to choose Canada, yet again. Well tbh I was seriously considering it, I know the country quite well, hell I spent 14 months there and weapons is historically my industry... BUT but well they have a 99% import tax... that just doesn't cut it with #1 hrmmm so what other country can we compare it too? Iran or Australia?


Iran vs Australia
Iran 20% import tax; nearly 8k citizens; 35% land skill (56% manu)
Australia 10% import tax; nearly 5.5k citizens almost an exact split of manu vs land

Well just looking at that I think it is pretty clear who wins, Australia is probably our closest neighbor in economic situation. Yes I know they are waging war to reclaim eSA and that they have an open war with Indo... it can't be perfect eh? (I would also like to note that a war reclaiming someone-elses land is going to be a lot different then reclaiming your own.)

Quick review for those of you who skipped the process on which I chose;
Australia wins because of:
1. medium level import taxes (a bit on the low side, but Rome wasn't built in a day, I'm not recommending we keep high Import taxes for ever)
2. Few imports (only have 1 Q5 importer in the cheapest 3 of each Q)
3. High competition between Industries for employees (almost an exact split)
4. No exports (there isn't any exporting that I saw at anything lower then Q4 and very few above that)
5. RM is in original region '\
6. Not really big, heck I don't want to spend the next days looking at Russian companies. '\
7. No active wars that are unduly affecting the mentality of citizens I hope my above explanation covered this

Ok, now the part that I have been dreading for a couple hundred words. The analysis.

First, how many jobs are there in the Aussie Weapons industry (*I am not counting an company with fewer then 5 employees as active, this shouldn't be too far off the actual number seeing as companies often use "dead" citizens to bolster their count)
577 Jobs

How many companies? 64 active companies

ok, so 577/640 jobs are being used, I wonder if that is about right for my previously stated ratio 1/1.1

Wow, look at that, it is actually 1/1.109 is that not neat? continuing.

ok, so we have concluded that the eAus weapons industry fits the basic profile of the projected eSA weapons industry, we have also concluded that the eAus weapons industry looks pretty good, they are sufficiently protected from imports without a high Import tax (which should be a goal for eSA) they are also producing a shit load of weapons, now to find out how much... damn I was avoiding this

Hmmm... how to go about doing a industry wide production?

Ahh brilliant I think I've got it. Ok, now to explain.

Well to keep it short it epically failed, I'm going to have to do this old fashioned like, calculate the productivity of EVERY company individually... damnit I wanted to get this out ASAP.

Ok, I'm back it only took an hour but I've got eAustralia's total* production, here is the break-down:

Q1- 4156 Productivity Units = 831 Q1 weapons produced DAILY
Q2- 1495 Productivity Units = 149 Q2 "
Q3- 1397 Productivity Units = 113 Q3 "
Q4- 269 Productivity Units = 13 Q4
Q5- 1734 Productivity Units = 69 Q5
(I have a breakdown of every individual company if anyone wants it)

Total # of weapons produced per day- 1175
ok, well that blows my 2000 estimate... back to the drawing board

ok, so we are going to use the 2,369 number as a guide for the number of consumers. So they produced about 1 Q1 for every 3 citizens ok, well lets try that out for size. It is quite a bit lower then I guessed, but it was just a guess. We cant forget about production vs. stockpile, I almost did. So in eAus they had 15218; since I want a little more accurate estimate I'm actually going to take the growth in stock over the last 10 days and use that instead of the 1 day trend.

Mar30-Apr8 the average change/day was +88 Q1 weapons. (just over 10% stockpiled)

So transfer that over to eSA (664/2369) So we are about 28% the consumer base as compared to eAus.

If we had a proportionate weapons industry we would be producing about 232 Q1 weapons daily, all the sudden my 2000 weapons guesstimate seems absurd, oh well. Well moving on...

So to produce 232 weapons daily would require about 6 high efficiency companies (Australia only has 6 companies producing 40+ weapons a day) So how many would it take in eSA? well assuming that Australia is a decent crosscut of Q1 company owners habits it would take about 9 companies actively producing, about 4 would have 10 or more active employees and the rest would have between 9-1 active employees. We are talking about 65 workers producing daily to meet the approximate need of eSA.... wow, I would have never guess we were so close. This of course only accounts for Q1 the others are a bit more nebulous and more prone to boom bust cycles. I would also like to add that the need in the higher Q's is much more likely to get weapons from other markets, or the Black Market. However having a healthy weapons industry means a healthy Manu sector.

I usually peter off in most articles when I no longer have anything to say but I will try something different this time, a summary, quick hopefully less then a 5 minute read, heck this might even end up at the start.

Nah, it is kinda hard to summarize an article in 100 words or less, I tried and failed. If anyone else cares to try I'll pay you a gold or two if I like it, oh and it will have meant that your read this behemoth of an article, which will give you respect imo.

Well here I am Petering off...