Some Economic Indicators
Paul J Keating
Since joining this game a little over a month ago one of the first things I noticed is that there is precious little in the way of useful economic data. In my experience you can never have too much data, it always helps in decision-making whether that be personal investment/purchasing decisions or government macroeconomic decisions.
So, I started collecting data personally to keep a track of how things are going. The data here is over a period of less than 1 month (it took me a few days to get started) but I’ll try to keep updating it. The data is also collected at a point in time and therefore subject to volatility as I don’t have time to collect more regular samples and produce averages, it’s a snapshot each day of wage offers, food and weapons prices collected at more or less a similar time of day.
Let’s take a look at some of the results. Firstly, let’s look at product prices:
FOOD PRICE
Chart 1: Food Prices
Food prices have been relatively stable over the period. Q6 food was only recently enabled so the early stages show a little volatility as the market worked to find its new equilibrium level accounting for the new ‘product’, but fairly quickly settled on a new price level and, along with other Q levels has remained stable over the period.
WEAPONS PRICE
Chart 2: Weapons Prices
A similar story to food prices, after an adjustment period for Q6 weapons the market price was settled (though Q6 weapons have been in slight decline) with little major movement in either direction across all Q levels.
MINIMUM HEALTH PRICE
While prices per Q level are interesting, for the food market what is most interesting is the price/health point. Unless you’re seriously constrained on storage the best quality food to buy is where the unit price (Price/Health) is lowest. The following graph plots the calculated ‘best buy’ from the food offers over the perio😛
Chart 3: Minimum Cost per Health Unit
As you can see, the price per health point has varied between $0.34 and $0.38 over the period, though the peaks have reduced over time to result in lower average prices. Another story of stable prices.
Now let’s look at the jobs market.
SALARY PER DAY
Chart 4: Highest Wage Offer
It’s clear that while product prices have been stable wage offers have been gradually increasing over the period, from $142 up to mid-high $160’s over the past few days. This is unambiguously good news for Australian workers, whose daily salary can now afford more food and weapons per day.
Dollar values only go so far though, the following graph represents what this means to the average worker in terms of the health that may be recovered per day at market wages:
RECOVERABLE HEALTH PER DAY
Chart 5: Maximum Health per Day at Market Wages
A steady increase in recoverable health per day is great news. Working at the highest salary on offer and buying the cheapest unit price food available, it is now possible to do an extra 10 fights per day compared to less than a month ago.
SUMMARY
As you can see the standard of living for wage earners has been steadily increasing over the period of data collection primarily due to wage inflation while price inflation is low/negative. Why is this so? Stability is good for the economy. I suggest that a relatively prolonged period of stability, with Australia maintaining it’s territorial integrity (and therefore production bonuses) and not being involved in a direct battle for existence has allowed Australian businesses to improve productivity. Price inflation that one would normally see as a result of wage inflation is minimised due to higher productivity (i.e. supply-side improvements).
Eventually one would expect the full benefit of the prolonged stability will level out. Whether we remain intact, or indeed secure new production bonuses in future, will determine how sustainable this improved standard of living will be.
Hope you found this informative.
Comments
I'm really impressed by the time you've taken to do this analysis, well done. Some follow-up questions I'd love to see covered if you can get the data someday:
1) What effect did the return of regions (WA, NT) have on productivity and therefore wages? (I don't have the resources to work out when the regions were returned at the moment, will have that ability in 12 hours)
2) What effect does war have on demand for food and weapons, and how does that affect wages, prices and health/day statistics?
3) a) How much does getting a new resource region affect wages, prices, and health/day stats?
3) b) How quickly do these effects occur?
Thanks for the kind comments MMcM.
Unfortunately I am collecting all of this data manually as I can't find another way, so anything that happened before xmas day 2011 is lost to me (unless someone can point me towards historical data).
I agree, it will be interesting to monitor how events like war, region changes, productivity bonus changes affect the economy and the processes and duration of these effects.
Have you considered using the API to automatically fetch data for you? You can't get historical data but you will be able to collect data regularly (hourly for example) without having to go to the effort of doing it manually. I'm not sure you can get the job data but you can certainly get food/weapon prices.
I have significant programming experience and would potentially be interested in setting up a job that provides hourly market data for eAustralia as a dump on a public FTP server (assuming you intend to continue providing economic analysis like this), but only under the condition that the data be provided to the whole of eAustralia as a public service. I couldn't promise it straight away though... I'd have to set up a small hosting account somewhere first (unless someone has one and they'd be willing to offer a small bit of space and an account!)
What's in it for me, you ask? I'd like to play with the eRep API and this is a good excuse.
Awesome article Paul!
*thumbs up* 😃
Nice work
Good work.
voted
we needed this,
good work.
thank you o/
Great Stuff
Voted and now a Sub
cool beans
we're all impressed, Paul.. brilliant!
keep up the good work!
Great stuff, Paul, I'd like to do this for Norway if I have the chance. If you have any tips to give me, I'm always reachable with the message module of the game.