Join the new world

On May 5, I took a snapshot of the global political landscape. I was curious as to how being first in the party list affected party recruitment--i.e., how many people joined the number one party simply because the party was first in the list. However, I found some other pretty interesting statistics.

Quite simply, I created a modifier which helps to identify those parties that are strongest and which are failing. A number greater than 1 indicates a strong party with strong growth. A number lower than one indicates a party which may be struggling to keep up membership with the rest of the parties.

A very high number (>3) indicates a very strong party which may be getting too big for its britches--i.e., the party is absolutely dominant in politics and it lacks any sizable opposition.

A healthy number ranges somewhere between 1-3. This indicates moderate growth but also strong party dominance.

A number much lower than 1 indicates a party which is likely struggling to maintain relevance. However, a number less than .5 likely indicates a small party that has seen a surge in membership.

That said, the best way to look at these numbers is within each country, as the dynamics in politics between countries is just to great to capture with any sort of coherence.

Nevertheless, here are the numbers:

On average (I took the largest countries which have shown some political stability):
1 (3.81)
2 (2.06)
3 (.8😎
4 (.71)
5 ( .52)

USA:
APF (3.07)
SEES (.97)
FEDS (.97)
UIP (.8😎
LIBS (.5😎
Analysis: USA's top five parties all remain relevant in the political arena. Note that APF and SEES below average numbers are counterbalanced by an above average in UIP and LIBS. This shows that the APF, while undoubtedly the strongest party on the block, still has some competing to do with with even 4th and 5th ranked parties.

Contrast the USA with a country like Brazil:
Partido Democrata Brasileiro (5.40)
Partido Militar (1.79)
Partido Igualdade e Liberdade (.95)
PROGRESSISTAS (.46)
Uniao Brasileira (.29)
Analysis: This shows that the PDB remains remarkably successful, at the expense of the UB and the Progressistas. Indeed, the latest data shows that 54% of those who joined parties during this timeframe joined the PDB. That's an exceptionally large number. On the contrary, only 5% and 3% joined the Progressitas and the UB, respectively.

If you would like another country's political parties analyzed, let me know. I have all the information available.