New Raw Materials and the Economy
venja
So by now you have all read about New Types of Raw Materials.
Ok its all very exciting and we take some comfort from words like "We will let you know soon the details of the migrations". Lets chat about it and worry about the details later right ?
Well read it again "Starting today, all the regions will offer a medium production value for all the resources but every region will be rich in one (and only one) resource. The available resources will be: Grain, Fish, Fruit, Cattle, Deer, Iron, Aluminum, Oil, Saltpeter, Rubber."
Workers first noticed it soon after day change, even though the changes apparently applied from after maintenance last night. All raw material production was down around 50%. Of course now all regions are medium so productivity has reduced from 100% to 50%. So all raw material costs up 100%. And the flow onto manufactured goods is +50%.
Now its not quite that bad because if your industry has a new high productivity region anywhere in your country, you get a 25% productivity boost (50%x1.25=62.5😵
. Also admins have kindly offered a free migration between grain, oil and iron, so I would expect the vast majority of production to be at 62.5% - but that is still a 60% cost increase.
In manufacturing there is also the potential to gain a boost from having high regions in any of the food group or the weapons group. Since there is a limit of 5 out of 10 allocated in each country's original regions, it is likely that about 3 will set the pace for global pricing, i.e a 15% increase in productivity or 13% cost reduction in manufacturing labour cost. Overall manufactured costs then will be something like 0.5x1.6 + 0.5 x 0.87 = 1.23.
Thus expect raw materials to be about 60% more expensive and manufactured goods (food and weapons) about 23% more expensive.
This doesn't change wages so basically all citizens have less to consume. It may lead to wage pressure but this will be inflationary causing similar cost increases which wont change the basic equation that overall we will be less productive and therefore consume less. This is a surefire way to cause an economic downturn.
In terms of labour market, the drop in raw material productivity and rise in manufactured will lead to more jobs being required in raw material production. Instead of it being 50/50, its more likely to be 65% raw material 35% manfactured. So expect plenty of new demand in raw material companies and maybe some short term wage spiking.
Now because this may not have been the intention of admins, it would be no surprise for them to patch something else over the top of all of this. Then again it will be no surprise if they don't.
Comments
another great article!
Agreed, with less productivity it's safe to say prices will go up until wages are decreased. The power sits with GMs to dictate price and wage changes.
I imagine two reasons for admins lowering the productivity. Firstly to make room for the "future new industries", which judging by the decision to give limited access initially to titanium/tickets/housing/stone they are expecting a rush of players into. By weakening all existing RM production the new industries might get an initial boost, to be re-balanced later, although it's difficult to be sure without any information on the new industries.
Secondly there is no more titanium/wood/stone and if(?) many of those companies converted to iron/grain/oil overnight with the same productivity the markets would be flooded with those resources for a while making them less profitable (in a less equitable manner) until demand from manufacturing catches up.
The general feeling about this "update" seems to be that Admin once again used a blunt instrument without warning, as a prelude to something even more drastic.
It's resulted in a massive increase in the price of raw materials, so unless it requires less grain per bread, oil for MT etc. which I'm not sure of, there will be a reasonable increase in the price of food, MTs and houses etc.
is this venja the 2000 gold man ?