Examining Election Results

Day 645, 01:57 Published in United Kingdom United Kingdom by fezoj

Election time has been and gone, and as the dust settles it's time to examine the Parliament that has been elected for the coming month. In this first article I'll attempt to take a look at the election results, and also at how the political scene has changed since last month.



Firstly, let's take a look at last month's results to provide some perspective on August. As we can see from the graph above, both the centre-left and centre-right holding some 74% of the Parliament, with The Unity Party holding some 39% (or 18 seats) to the UK Reform Party's 30% (14 seats) and the British Empire Party's 4% (2 seats). The far-left People's Communist Party secured 17%, or 8 seats, and the centrist Radical Freethinker's Alliance (which I classify separately from other centre parties, as their members hold views across the political spectrum).



Coming to August's elections, there have been significant changes. The first detail worthy of mention is that while in July there were a potential 46 seats available, at this election there were 40. Moving on from this, what is immediately obvious is that there has been a significant swing away from TUP and UKRP - roughly 8 and 9 percent respectively - and towards the smaller parties of the BEP and RFA, with each increasing their seats in Parliament by a large margin. The BEP more than doubled their previous seats, going from 2 to 5, and the RFA gained 3 seats, taking them from 4 to 7. The PCP however have seen a decline in number of seats, losing one from July, but due to the reduced size of Parliament this results in little overall change in their voting power.

In the previous month, with all its territorial turmoil, there has also been a potentially large political change, with voters perhaps moving away from the large central parties and towards smaller parties. The BEP in particular seem to be gaining the most from this swing, having gained three seats and having put in a comparatively strong performance at the recent Country President elections. The far left also seems to be continuing a long-term decline, having lost seats now for three elections running - from their most recent high point in May, with 12 seats, to 10 in June, 8 in July and now down to 7 in August. What should perhaps be most worrying to the PCP is that in the most recent election is that five of their seven MPs were elected as wildcards, rather than through straight victories.