Erepublik regression analysis

Day 682, 01:41 • Published in Romania Romania • by sebahmah

It's been a few days since i feel the urge of writing an article like in the old days about what goes around in erepublik. And i had quite some nice leads, but unfortunately i felt like no information was exciting.. or worthy to be discussed or bragged about.

Further i realized that it's not about the events, it's about me. 6 months ago I was packing bags to sweden , i was fighting propaganda, i was recruiting romanian soldiers and comitted strategies to aid our beloved allies.

Today i just realise that no matter what i do, the outcome is the same with some minor variances in time and place.

You see.. lack of new features amde erepublik predictable, like a regression equationwhere you insert the variables and it predicts the outcome in quantitative signs.

Take for example the scandinavian conflict:

- U have an aggressor: Russia
- U have the abuse😛 Norway
- U have neighbors who are friendly to the abuse😛 Sweden, Finland
- U have 2 alliances on each sides

and some variables outside these:

-tempo: meaning the initiative and past results
-morale: winning or losing sides
-activity level: is the involved country on the upper curve or the downfall of activity and new user waves

If you have only the 2 countries involved in the conflict, and all the others are fairly split: neighbors are split between the 2, alliances are equal in power, tempo , morale and activity and balanced.. then the outcome depends on raw power with a bonus for defender of 50%. If attacker is 150% more powerful it is very likelly he'll be in command for undetermined time.

This is not the case, and will not be in any conflict, as usually defenders will gain activity level and neighbor appeal.

In USA the aggression went so far because the abuser had more neighbors of the abused in their favor, had activity leve l(russian baby-boom), had tempo and morale. But soon these all faded away in front of the 50% handicap.

So getting back to our scandinavians, the was can't have other outcomes then the utter FAIL of the Russia empire. The only debatable issue is time and future morale and tempo for the 2 sides.

The war can finish quickyl in 1 week, if Russia falls under the tempo pressure and morale and chooses to focus for regaining WSR and caucas.. or it can be a middle-term deal involving 1 month, Russia keeping the battle up because of their raw force, forcing Scandinavian allies to bring friends and increase tempo. Or it could last for even 2 months if PEACE decides to push tempo on their side, this way preventing Russia from taking care of WSR, and luring them to scandinavian with short term wins.

One way or another, Scandinavia will be free, only question is how will Russia end this. End it quick and have a chance to mix things up, get WSR and Caucas with the help of EDEN tempo and morale, or be lured into a dead fight against scandinavia, lose the opportunity to seize WSR and Caucas and lose on the long term a battle against a more united enemey.

There is one option, the best i think for Russia, where they get WSR and Caucas and continue fighting in scandinavia with help of PEACE that just handed over the regions. Ultimately this will end again with a FAIL, but long term one.


In the end, i guess it's not about the FAIL or WIN, it's about the road, and the FUN we have arriving to our destination, because the outcome of our actions is rather predictable.


Sa ne auzim invingatori,


And a little story:
As a fresh AIESEC member a long time ago, i received a t-chirt with a motto which back then i hardly understood what it ment. Now i believe it's what life is all about, including erepublik life.

Success is a journey, not a destination

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