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Good Evening, I'm Art Showalter. Tonight, we have a special guest with us. He is a former military adviser and is an expert in statistics. He has carefully watched the Manitoba victory and has some interesting findings. Mr. Howard Randall?

Thank you, Mr. Showalter. My findings are available to the public at:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlGmNbV5qXMGdC1WM0tIVHF1Z0tlOVNkVEQ2RHppNVE&hl=en

Unfortunately, I was unable to share the entirety of my hard data from the neatbattlestats website, but the gist of it is there.

My study of the battle has determined that every single day, the eUSA and Allied mobile forces gain 1,560 points of damage on eHungary and PEACE mobile forces. Every. Single. Day.

AS: That's astounding, but surely it can't be that simple. I know a little about statistical manipulation, and it sounds like you've taken some liberties with the data.

HR: Unfortunately, that's true. Neatbattles relies on eRep's API feed, which was down for roughly 3 and a half hours during the battle. That is a critical point. However, I attempted to take that into account by using damage averages.

Other assumptions I made:
1. NB's Tanks are field marshals, little tanks are generals and colonels, normal players are captains and lieutenants, and new players are privates, corporals, and sergeants.
1a. I assumed equal distribution among the breakdown. For example, I assumed a third of the new players were privates, a third corporals, and a third lieutenants.
2. I used data from http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApkC3e0De6mhdEpuM1V1MUdmZW9hOC13Y2JkZUp0alE&hl=en
to calculate the difference in damage between the classes and time spent at each level.
2a. His assumptions included fighting every day with Q1 weapons, which is certainly not happening, but that is an equivalent assumption for both Hungary and the US, whether barehanded or using Q5s.
2b.. I used the midpoint of his data for differences in damage between the classes. This helps take strength into account. Those calculations are shown at the bottom of my spreadsheet.
3. This data also includes non-native forces from both sides, so it's not strictly a USA vs. Hungary report. However, it should be fairly indicative of the strength of the lower levels, which is the data that we're interested in.
4. The 1500 number, of course, assumes that the active citizen advantage continues on in the game.

AS: There is no guarantee of that, but one can hope. So, when does that mean we will overtake them?

HR: That is a more difficult question to answer. First, I took all the available battle data, and cut out any damage done with more than 10 fights. I call this "Golden Damage". The Allies had to do about 75k more "Golden Damage" in order to win Manitoba. Also, there was the 182,000 for the wall and the overage that must be considered. In addition, due to the limits of the battle stats, about 160k in damage was unaccounted for between the reported number and the number calculated directly from the participants.

AS: Wait, wait, wait, you're throwing a ton of numbers at me here and I'm having difficulty following, as I'm sure the viewers at home are as well.

HR: Alright, basically, I wanted to get rid of damage done by buying wellness packs, and I also had to take into account the wall when figuring out a baseline for citizen damage.

AS: Why didn't you just say that in the first place?

HR: I'm a statistician.

AS: Oh. Right. Anyway, why didn't you use http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/stats-usa-vs-hungary--991653/1/20?

HR: Those numbers are fantastic, but there is no way to know which citizens are active and in what numbers. I chose Manitoba because if you didn't fight in Manitoba, your citizen is on life-support anyway and won't be around much longer.

AS: Reasonable. So, what's the final result?

HR: My conclusion is not a particularly happy one. Certainly, we won Manitoba. However, we did it by outspending PEACE. Our economy can probably handle that because of our large citizen advantage, but it means we still have work to do.

If we repeated the Manitoba battle and neither side used gold for wellness packs, the Allies would lose by around 75k. In addition, you have to take into account that many Hungarians only got in 5 fights in the battle, rather than 10 due to the fortuitous timing. Low-balling, that's going to be worth at least another 100k, but that number is very difficult to ascertain. That's 175k in damage at least the eUS populace would have to come up with. And, in 117 days, it will.

AS: So what are you really telling us? This wasn't a one-on-one fight with Hungary, both sides had their mobile forces in the battle. How can you come up with a damage difference, or even that 1500 daily damage increase for the eUS?

HR: Coming up with the damage difference was the hardest part, and I may very well be horrifically off. However, I am VERY confident in the 1500 daily damage increase, once again, because it is assumed the entire active portion of both Hungary and the US took part in the Manitoba battle

AS: So, for those viewers joining us at the end of the broadcast, the eUS and mobile allied forces are gaining roughly 1500

HR: 1560 to be exact

AS: RIght, 1560 in damage every day vs Hungary and PEACE's mobile forces. The amount of damage that we have to make up is difficult to nail down due to tanking, but it's safe to assume that we'll get there within a year?

HR: Without a doubt, the Allies will overcome PEACE within a year, but probably within half that time if things stay constant and multis keep getting banned. Besides, the Manitoba battle, as epic as it was, is merely a microcosm of the general conflict. The eUS babies greatly outnumber Hungary's, and that difference means there is an expiration date stamped on Hungary's reign.

AS: Sure it does. Six months is an eternity in this game, but at least we have an idea of what we're facing. This is Art Showalter, signing off.