Q6 Disaster
Gnilraps
Department of Head-Scratching
Day 1,491 of the New World
20 December 2011
Latest "Upgrade" Shakes up Markets.
Changes everything.
In a move we saw coming from miles away, Q6 weapons and food have been added as "Limited Time" upgrade options for business owners.
The upgrade is an expensive one, 200 Gold from Q5 to Q6. As far as we can tell, these upgrades will not be available during any future 50% off upgrades sales, so business owners will be paying the full ride for this upgrade.
The introduction of an entirely new class of weapon and food represents a total shift in how our markets will look.
EMPLOYMENT
Several factors govern the Job market.
First, the fact that every "work click" yields an equal production regardless of health or worker skill creates an entirely even playing field with respect to workers seeking jobs. One worker is as good as the next.
Second, the proliferation of available Q5 jobs means that lower Q companies cannot afford to hire. The Job Market daily wage is set by the highest-return jobs available. In the past this has been a Q5 Manufacturing job. Even Q5 RM companies could not afford to hire.
Third, the practice of Hire/Fire day labor inflates the job market. Many busy company owners will post job offers, then as soon as the worker takes the job and works he is fired. By doing this a company is no longer limited by the 5 worker/company maximum. If busy enough, a company owner can literally run through dozens of employees daily, maximizing production and increasing profit.
With the introduction of the Q6 weapons factory (we'll get to food in a minute), the Job Market will now be governed by Q6 companies. This means Q4 Weapons companies which in the past may have been able to turn a profit via workers are absolutely shut out. It remains to be seen if Q5 companies will be able to compete with the Q6 jobs market.
Q6 Hire/Fire owners will as usual dictate the market wage. Once the market stabilizes (I expect to see a Q6 weapon eventually sell for around 40-50 USD), we will be able to determine if Q5 companies will be able to afford workers.
A lot depends on the availability of Q6 jobs. A brief glance at the markets already leads me to believe that people are spending the Gold for the upgrades willingly. My prediction is that there will be plenty of Q6 jobs. If this is the case, Q5 salaries may rise to keep pace, driving the price of Q5 weapons up with it. If, however, enough Q6 weapons and jobs are available, Q5 Manufacturing may get shut out of the employment market as well.
If that happens, Admin has just robbed all value from the entire Q5 Manufacturing sector. Many who invested in Q5 business ownership are going to be TICKED OFF. Grab your popcorn.
RAW MATERIALS
So far there is no Q6 Raw materials company.
The introduction into our markets of Q6 Manufacturing companies which will require (I am guessing) 200 more RM per employee per day will increase traffic on the Raw Materials market driving those prices somewhat higher.
Business owners considering the Q6 upgrade will have to consider increasing storage capacity. Self-producers will have to consider adding additional RM companies.
Most importantly, Militias who rely on commune manufacturing will experience an increase in the cost of production, as they tend to purchase their raw materials. OMS funding for those Militias who rely on it will have to be stretched even further.
Perhaps (and this is really a pipe-dream in a virtual economy governed by a purchasing "bot") the rise in prices and the addition of a new expensive class of products will inflate the value of the USD. That would be a good thing. It won't happen.
Q6 FOOD
One of the sillier notions in all of this is the introduction of Q6 food. Food Q is nearly meaningless as it is. The single greatest benefit of Q5 food has always been that it is conveniently worth 10 health. Q6 Food is worth 12 health, meaning it will need to be coupled with other-Q food in order to keep your health meter in good order. Blech.
Higher Q weapons, in addition to lasting more clicks, also pack a larger punch in battle. This makes them desirable by far over low-Q weapons. But Q6 Food may become a total bust. It will be inconvenient without offering significant enough additional benefits. There is the potential for greater profits, but only if people desire to purchase them. My advice is to boycott all Q6 food. Who needs it?
However, the Food Job Market is combined with the Weapons Job Market. This means that hiring employees in your Q5 (or Q6) Food company may have just become impossible unless the cost of food rises to keep pace. If enough weenies upgrade to Q6 Food, all bets are off, but I predict a sharp rise in the cost of Q5 Food.
TAXES
The one golden egg in all of this is that with higher wages and higher priced goods, tax revenues just shot up without an increase in the tax code.
This should drive congress to lower tax rates across the board. Bank on it.
MISCELLANEOUS
There is much more that can be said about this new addition. I will cover some additional thoughts in brief:
I predict some rage (and non-rage) quitting.
I predict another major economic shift coming from Plato to "fix" the chaos Q6 Manufacturing will cause.
Militias may have to reduce their daily supply rations.
Commune workers are more valuable than ever.
Those who spend significant Real Life dollars on this game were just given a huge super-gift by Plato. More than ever they can own everything.
I predict that Admin will raise the daily donation limit which governs the Congressional Budget. The current cap is 99,999 USD per day. It will go up.
Lower Q products may become less expensive. The market for them just got smaller.
The divide between the government-sponsored military and the privately-sponsored military just grew. Unless an MU has a rich benefactor, their entire operation just got a little bit more difficult.
I invite your thoughts/opinions in the comments section below.
I am proud to sport the award I recently received from The Irish Community.
You may now return to your regularly scheduled clicking
Comments
FIRST!
nice article : )
true story the tax stuff might be interesting
Nice Article Gnilraps. Sentiments well felt!
Congratz! Nice article
Great article
You hit all the issues, great article!
"I predict that Admin will raise the daily donation limit which governs the Congressional Budget. The current cap is 99,999 USD per day. It will go up."
Won't happen. Hasn't happened in years. Why would it now?
lower taxes? lol
Great article
lower taxes? lol
don't forget local currencies are plummeting also - HRK fell by 50% in just a few hours...
~hyuu~
1 q6 company is enough for the whole erep fighters. It all depends on the activity of the manager of that sole company.
The demand will set the offer in short time. Probably at a 30% price over q5.
Voted. This is horrible for Q3 company owners as our profits decrease too much. The smaller companies get badly affected
lol forget the smaller companies. They never made income anyhow.
The ONLY damage this does, is it hurts militias. Other then that it helps armies, and single players who chose to spend money on the game.
think there will come a request to Congress for increased allotments, or a special request through SCI which Congress won't even see, to help the Budget-lined Military and OMS cover the costs of these upgrades?
now is time ti buy allot cheep food and weapons, for those who want to buy q6 let them have it....i'll stock lower levels of products...
Gnilraps VOTED
You get it. A lot of the people at the top in Erep don't understand Economics, but you do! Voted Gnilraps keep it up
Good article, BUMP!
This game is dead long time a go, this is just ending.
Point is what to do ? Left party when party hit high note like Rupe Tot did or watching end of party when party become very stinky ?
Very good analysis, although I disagree with a few of your predictions. Nevertheless, you have a good point overall ...
it makes my head hurt...
Voted. Just an hint: "So far there is no Q6 Raw materials company."
Wait 3 months.
^
Speaking as an owner of a private MU that is "disconnected" from the system (no outside funding), this won't really affect our plans. Having a q6 weapon commune would be nice, just for the extra fire power and profit. If I can't swing it, no great loss. Wages are not applicable as members work in communes and are paid in supplies. It may become harder for the newer members to buy and upgrade their companies if market prices plummet, we shall see.
I assume that after the introductory offer the cost of upgrading to q6 will be 400 gold. I know the Adturds say it is a limited time offer, but get real. They are beating the crap out of the goose that lays the golden eggs trying to milk it for all it's worth. When the q6 offer is over those that didn't or couldn't upgrade will be left out in the cold. (Gnilraps is absolutely correct in his prediction of lower q employees being unprofitable. I'm not 100% sure about a market price collapse, but that's another subject.) This will cause an upheaval in the economy. Major adjustments in the econ mod ARE forthcoming, so hang on to yer butts.
great article.
i pity those who spent their golds on q6 food factories :/
Fantastic article, thanks!
All these assumes that we all HAVE TO HAVE QMax everything. I see these things more for the "Rich" and crazy that spend lots of RL money on this game and were kind-of maxed out on what to do...
Nice article Gnilraps.
Well, you essentially summed up Q6 weapons. Great article. The only thing that I have to add is my suspicion that we will not have seen the last of these Q6 companies once this is over. I doubt that they will be available for regular upgrade in the near future though.
*cough* Loyalty Program *cough*
Just before the Q6 offer was made, a no star supreme marshal with 4500 strength, could buy 460 damage per dollar with a Q5 weapon (Q5W price = $27.16). To get the same damage per dollar with a Q6 weapon our supreme marshal shouldn't spend more than $35.86 per. At the present price of $47.88, the supreme marshal is only getting 344 damage per dollar.
But the demand shift from Q5 to Q6 has resulted in lower Q5 prices. At the present price of $22.90 for a Q5 weapon, our supreme marshal can buy 546 damage per dollar. Its p cool to have a Q6 weapon right now, but that will pass and economics will prevail. I expect Q6 prices to settle in the $34 - $39 range and Q5 prices to come back to a $26 - $31 range.
Are you ever later than first to write well about something, Gnilly? 😛
I dont understand why they would bother adding Q6 food and weapons. It helps nothing.
dos any thing they do?
Nice aticle
Thank you yet again for reminding the casual player what a bad idea it is for them to buy gold! Seriously, what kind of idiot must they take me for to think that i'd spend over $500 to upgrade my silly little Q2 food and Q3 weapon companies that provide me supplies and money to support my casual habit? Sorry guys, but from a business aspect, who the hell is your target that is willing to spend thousands of dollars to upgrade a few virtual companies in a game that is vastly populated by free-to-play customers?
Hell, for the cost of upgrading my couple companies I could buy a kick ass driver, a decent watch, 3 sky dives, a car payment (most of it, anyway), a couple of boxes of really good cigars, a Southwest plane ticket and a couple nights at a Courtyard in San Francisco... well, I digress. Point is simply this, Thank You!
I'm definitely NOT going to buy Q6 weapons or food. As far as i see it, Q1 Food is already the best choice, and as well as Q5 weapons. I'm not paying an extra 20$ for 1 more use and 20% more firepower.
lower taxes? lol x3
v, s
"Q6 Food is worth 12 health, meaning it will need to be coupled with other-Q food in order to keep your health meter in good order. Blech.".
Precisely. As soon as I saw the upgrade, up went one of my Q5 weapons companies. The Q5 food ones? Not a chance. I said the same thing on my country forum but no one has picked it up yet
I want a q6 weapon for one reason, my MU. I agree with wingfield and others, the q6 food doesn't make sense, especially if your using it for a commune. I just need a few more rubber plantations now.
And I also agree with mccvii, it doesn't make sense for a casual player to pay so much real money. In my case I've just built up most of my stuff back when you could still get ahead in eRep. (Like 6 months ago.) I occasionally buy some gold when there is a special, but I only use money from my entertainment budget. Fun is fun, whether I go to the movies or play eRep.
V+S
v good article
tl;dr
V
*whistles*
That's why im building WRM factories from the beginning.
One good thing this offers militias is the ability to spam Q5 and Q4 weapons if prices are lowered on those. If not, then they are kind of screwed when it comes to funding for weapons, unless they can score some major funding, or establish their own factories.
It would actually be a good thing if the admins turned off the buying bots and let the market crash. Then you'd see who is in business for real. Yes, it is just another admin plot to scam more euros from the addicted elite. Our commune strategy will be to just keep up what we've been doing, collect our profits and go for the low hanging fruit. The upgrade costs for manufacturing were silly outrageous to begin with, so I never went there. But we will be Q6 consumers where that makes sense.