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Wheel of Fraud

Día 2,221, 08:05 por Mr Sherlock Holmes


Today, Plato has introduced a new promotion lasting 10 days: The Wheel of Fortune.

There are eight prizes you can win:

Prizes
- +100 Energy House for 7 days
- 50% Damage Booster 10 min
- 100 Prestige Points
- Bazooka Booster
- 5 Winter Treats
- Energy Bar
- Spin again
- Jackpot

If you win one jackpot, you get a 100% damage booster, also unlocking the next jackpot, a 500 health building for 7 days! Once winning this, you unlock the final jackpot of 500 gold.

Many people may be tempted to spend a lot of gold in order to win the final jackpot, hoping to make a big profit.

Math:

The formula to work out the increasing cost of each spin is:

This shows the cumulative increase in spin price:

(Thanks to: Dr Kawishiwi)

The minimum it can cost is 2.1 gold. Since it is not known if there is coding that alters the 1/8 (1/7 if you don't count the free spin)chance, I cannot accurately work out an average cost. i'll guess that the jackpot is less likely than other prizes.

1/7 + 1/7 + 1/7
You can expect to get 3 jackpots in 21 spins: costing 39 gold. Meaning, if it is unbiased, it should, and average cost 39 gold. Looking at people's results so fun, it looks (of course) that it is biased; the true amount? Well take any guess!

TL;DR Don't go past the free spin!

'How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?'

~SH
 

Comentarios

Mr Sherlock Holmes
Mr Sherlock Holmes Día 2,221, 08:06

SHOUT: http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/2353985/1/20

Wheel of Fraud!

Malkaiser
Malkaiser Día 2,221, 08:35

1 in 512 chance of winning 500. So on average you will lose 12g from playing.

Sounds pretty fair for a casino game, the probabilities of ALL of them work out like this. It isn't fraud, it's gambling.

Also that 12g *on average* is buying you a 100% damage booster and +100 energy for a week.

Malkaiser
Malkaiser Día 2,221, 08:53

Oh and the free spin will actually put you well into profit since you get another chance at the jackpot.

This is assuming they all have the same 1/8 chance of being landed on.

nui04
nui04 Día 2,221, 09:11

y'know, it's independent probability, and you can end up winning 500g 512 times in a row, or none at all.

Mickskitz
Mickskitz Día 2,221, 09:24

You have not taken into consideration the cost increase per spin. If you spin 512 times you will be paying 51 gold for the final spin.

nui04 - as you need to hit the jackpot 3 times to get 500 gold this is wrong. Also, people need to understand that computers are unable to truly get a random number, so they get a number which appears random, which basically takes away any probability of it hitting that same number several times in a row (it could be higher, but 5 is rings a bell). If you run a random number generator on a computer with numbers 1,2,3, and you run this 50 times, you will not get a high sequence of numbers the same, purely because that would make the numbers no longer seem random (which ironically, they arn't). However the numbers are unpredictable to anyone who doesn't know the specific algorithm, which gives the impression of a random selection

Malkaiser
Malkaiser Día 2,221, 09:36

I didn't know that the cost increased, I'm going off the info in this article.

I don't think you guys understood that I was saying *on average*.

Neil Lewis
Neil Lewis Día 2,221, 11:59

You said you were going on the information on this article & missed the true cost of each spin, based on the number of times you spin! This is an exponential progression, albeit in, initially, small increments but they do build up quite quickly.

Malkaiser
Malkaiser Día 2,221, 12:46

Yeah in that case don't do this

Malkaiser
Malkaiser Día 2,221, 14:50

Now article is edited to be clearer

Banzai Mlaysia
Banzai Mlaysia Día 2,221, 08:09

V

BaKaRaS
BaKaRaS Día 2,221, 08:11

Waiting to see the +18 icon at the bottom and the ban of all the players that havent purcased gold with credit card (age verification)

I can also mention tha a lot of countries have restrictions about online gambling

Mr Sherlock Holmes
Mr Sherlock Holmes Día 2,221, 08:12

Plato's getting desperate!

arxaios
arxaios Día 2,221, 08:21

you don't win real money , so no problem

marcelbok
marcelbok Día 2,221, 08:12

I don't see how you came up with the number 135.. golds.

but voted \o/

Mr Sherlock Holmes
Mr Sherlock Holmes Día 2,221, 08:20

Added in the Excel Doc!

Prince of Nowhere
Prince of Nowhere Día 2,221, 08:17

v

T White II
T White II Día 2,221, 08:21

I don't agree with all you sums, but I can't be bothered to do them. Voted

Online Rambo
Online Rambo Día 2,221, 08:24

Seems legit (: V+S

Mr Sherlock Holmes
Mr Sherlock Holmes Día 2,221, 08:27

Technically you can win it in 3 spins. One of them being free.

Nohjis
Nohjis Día 2,221, 14:32

Lucky, or just have the thing bent way in favor of those who bought a lot of gold in the past month.

Trepca.Q7
Trepca.Q7 Día 2,221, 08:32

Actually, there is no maximum cost, because it's probability. You can be winning energy bars unitl death,xD

ATEHTATOPOT
ATEHTATOPOT Día 2,221, 09:24

THE TRUTH HAS BEEN SPOKEN.
And you can win the jack pot in 3 spins

Behemot
Behemot Día 2,221, 08:46

Chance is 1/7, spin again don't count ..
v, s

The Aged and Eminent Tommiecat
The Aged and Eminent Tommiecat Día 2,221, 08:48

The maximum number is wrong as you may never hit the jackpot button but yeah, I agree that the whole "Wheel of Fortune" thing is a scam which only purpose is making people spend gold in order to "force" them buy some more using those tiny rectangle items called "credit cards".

o7

Chemical Chaos
Chemical Chaos Día 2,221, 08:59

the odds shouldnt be multiplied like that as you are not trying to spin 3 wheels to all hit the star at the same time but trying to spin 1 wheel to get a star 3 times

in theory it would be an averageof 24 spins to get the 3 stars but as this is computerised there is no guarantee that each possibility has 1/8 probability

mwcerberus
mwcerberus Día 2,221, 09:36

^this guy is right

this article is wrong
you've worked out the prob of getting 3 stars in a row (assuming 1/8 chance)

Nohjis
Nohjis Día 2,221, 14:35

Congrats though

candymanson
candymanson Día 2,221, 18:56

Hoy many spins did it take?

Mickskitz
Mickskitz Día 2,221, 09:09

well considering Plato's choice not to do things properly with random (for example, I have since the introduction of Bazooka's received over 1000 more barrels than scopes (which statistically is highly unlikely given a total amount of bazzoka's used would only be around 2000), I highly doubt that it is not rigged, maybe only to half of the normal distribution (so 1/16), but it only makes it worse.

Also, your math is slightly out. As Behemot, free spins wern't taken into account, and you have counted the cost of spin 1 as 1 (when it is free). This last one only takes 52g off the total, but I just thought for accuracies sake I would mention it.

candymanson
candymanson Día 2,221, 18:55

Bazooka parts were never meant to be random drops

dimikala
dimikala Día 2,221, 09:34

V

Carlini8
Carlini8 Día 2,221, 09:36

I spun many times, I didn't even get close to a jackpot. It is 100% not a 1/8 chance of getting the jackpot. I would suggest 1/25 maybe. As already mentioned, the increase wasn't taken into account.

pamadapa
pamadapa Día 2,221, 09:37

-VOTADO-

Nothing is easy as it seems

Era Alper
Era Alper Día 2,221, 09:37

You made a serious mistake in probability calculations dude. You dont need to get the jackpot 3 times in a row you can get the jackpot any 3 time in any of your spins which makes the probability 1/8+1/8+1/8 = 1/24 for 500 gold not 1/8 ^ 3.

Apart from the calculation mistake you are kind of right cause i am sure that super spin is fraudulent and not giving the jackpot 1 out of 8 times.

Tony Clifford
Tony Clifford Día 2,221, 12:16

1/8+1/8+1/8 /8 :p
you have to do: 1/8+7/8*1/8+7/8*7/8*1/8 = about 30%

Era Alper
Era Alper Día 2,226, 00:45

i couldn't make it clear for the ones who may not have idea about probability calculations my bad. i should have written 1/(8+8+=1/24 which is the correct method of writing the calculation method for probability of having 3 times jackpot in any of your spins. though this is not the case for chamber of fraud.

Foxfire
Foxfire Día 2,221, 09:41

It's like they are only interested in taking our money.

JiminyChristmas
JiminyChristmas Día 2,221, 09:47

Merry Christmas!

Pibasog
Pibasog Día 2,221, 09:47

u don't have to count the "Spin again" as a chance.

so is not 1 out of 8 ... its 1 out of 7 that chage the number but still is not profitable in long term (like all loteries)

Mr Sherlock Holmes
Mr Sherlock Holmes Día 2,221, 09:52

EDIT:

Foolishly, I calculated getting 3 jackpots in a row.

The formula to work out the increasing cost of each spin is: 1+[0.1(N-1)] N= Spin number.
The minimum it can cost is 2.1 gold. Since it is not known if there is coding that alters the 1/8 (1/7 if you don't count the free spin)chance, I cannot accurately work out an average cost. i'll guess that the jackpot is less likely than other prizes.

TL;DR Don't go past the free spin!

TheRomanWarrior
TheRomanWarrior Día 2,221, 09:53

V + S

nuno258
nuno258 Día 2,221, 10:07

excelent

perilouspanther
perilouspanther Día 2,221, 10:07

Yeah, I spend 3.3 gold on this thing and got 3 bazuka boosters

vladb
vladb Día 2,221, 10:23

Actually the chances are weighted by the price value so if a damage booster has something like 100/200 chances the jackpot probably has a 1/200 chance of "being caught" -the higher the price the lower the chance.

KHAN68
KHAN68 Día 2,221, 10:35

fucking beatch Plato.

Yossarian Afudyakno
Yossarian Afudyakno Día 2,221, 10:43

v+s - When you hit that MM medal, spend the gold on some spins o7

Sekula Vasiljevic
Sekula Vasiljevic Día 2,221, 10:45

Great article Mr.Sherlock Holmes!!.That"s why I was pissed of among other things!!.Voted,subed,shouted!!.

 
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