What Lies Ahead: Liaoning and the Aftermath

Day 760, 09:56 • Published in USA USA • by Lieutenant Scheisskopf

The eRepublik media is slowly adjusting to the news of the eUSA's declaration of war on eIran. A major battle is upon us and the major eIranian fortress of Liaoning is the target. I and others have written on the significant impact of this battle and the potential loss for Phoenix, but the goal of this article is to look downfield and forecast the significance of either outcome in this most important battle. I also have two announcements below, that I hope you consider.


The target: Lion King (Liaoning)

Geography
The eWorld Map shows the obvious details, that the eUSA currently borders eIran’s Liaoning from Shandong, and Liaoning (also known as Lion King) is on the way to eHungarian-controlled Heilongjiang (affectionately known as Hello Kitty). But the map also shows eIran’s two “outs” in eNorth Korea, from which they could attempt a counterattack on Liaoning should the region fall to EDEN. To clean Phoenix out of eChina, the eUSA and EDEN will also need to remove eIran from tiny Ryanggang and Chagang. A resistance war (RW) currently rages in Chagang whose outcome is still in question, but removing eIran from there will give eNK more territories (and Congress seats) that the eRussian political takeover (PTO) group can use to reinforce their control of eNK. The original intent of this RW could also have been to give eRussia a better chance of spanning the eUSA front for a counterattack as Aeros posited previously, but as we all know now, this will not be an option for the next few days because of the events surrounding the eRussian president’s permabanning.


Hello Kitty (Heilongjiang): Are you next?

Gold
Victory for EDEN will also bring the alliance one step closer to Heilongjiang, but this is both a blessing and a provocation. Although Hello Kitty is the ultimate goal of this war, EDEN may be overextending their supplies and gold reserves by trying to retake both fortress regions while eRussia’s secure second strike ability is taken away. eHungary and the rest of Phoenix also obviously want to stop EDEN at Lion King so that Hello Kitty isn't even threatened. To win Liaoning alone will cost thousands of gold on both sides; to follow that potential win with a hurried battle against Heilongjiang, which will probably be the biggest battle in eRepublik history, may be a cost that EDEN cannot fully afford.
Alternatively, should EDEN fail even once (against Liaoning or later against Heilongjiang), they may have to wait days for enough gold to try again, during which time eRussia will be re-enabled to play their trump card and attack the eUSA and eChina. EDEN is betting the house on winning it all while eRussia is handicapped these couple of days, and could lose everything if the breaks go Phoenix's way. We might also see these battles affect EDEN's capability of taking Karnataka away from eIndonesia if the war chest is too close to 0.

The question of gold is not one-sided, though. The first week of the war focused more on Asia Minor and eAustralia because Phoenix members were willing to initiate massive tanking operations. In essence, Phoenix’s war chest is already stretched thin and may crack under the pressure of attacks on Liaoning and Heilongjiang.

Fighters
Liaoning had 3858 citizens when the battle started; when I first published this article earlier today, the number was 3025. When this war started a week ago, I noted that Liaoning had 2700 citizens. Clearly, Phoenix-- or at least eIran and eSerbia-- has decided it was necessary to move more fighters to Liaoning to raise the wall for EDEN to challenge. But if that wall falls and the Stars and Stripes flies above the region, every one of those fighters will be trapped behind enemy borders and need to pay money (in the eUSA economy, no less) to move to a friendly region. This would result in a small economic boost for the eUSA to supplement the huge economic blow eIran would have from losing their Lion King. And of course, there is the risk that a few Liaoning-based two-clickers will not immediately move, resulting in diminished battle production for Phoenix in future battles.

A united China is the goal, but how long will EDEN need to stay?

Extended Presence
If EDEN is successful in freeing Liaoning and/or Heilongjiang, it is almost certain that eRussia will counterattack eChina. This action would trigger eChina's alliances, but because the eUSA is region swapping with eChina and therefore at war, the eChinese cannot count the eUSA as one of their alliances. The result would be either that the eUSA would deploy their military to Beijing to fight for eChina’s survival, or seek peace in the region swapping campaign and hold onto their regions while an eUSA-eChina mutual protection pact (MPP) was made. We may also see a certain mercenary group set up camp in eChina to help out, but I am not privy to that information. Most importantly, other EDEN allies would be needed to help eChina hold Lion King and Hello Kitty for themselves.

Other Fronts
The full impact of these battles on the other fronts will have to wait to reveal itself. Depending on which side depletes their gold reserves more, the success of Phoenix or EDEN elsewhere could simply come down to who has more gold left. I assess that ePoland will continue to control eGerman territories because of their massive baby boom, but other fronts could go either way. It is also likely that the other fronts may cool off as international attention focuses on Liaoning. Only time will tell…

Two Announcements
Finally, I would like to make 2 brief announcements. I would greatly appreciate your vote for my previous article, advocating the creation of Egypt in eRepublik. I strongly support the creation of an Arab country in this game, although I have no ties to the region or the people myself. Second, I am teaching a Journalism course at North American University (PM me for the registration key) and have posted the curriculum for it. If you are interested in learning how to improve your eRep newspaper, I will be sharing everything I know and will be glad to answer any questions you might have.
-EDIT- eRep in Maps is back! Check it out here
God Bless America,

Lt. Scheisskopf
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