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Weekly Market Report - bonus reduction aint all that bad.

Day 1,755, 05:54 Published in USA Serbia by Wilhem Klink


The eUSA bonus gets trimmed to 80%/80%, raw materials tumble, and profits return.

Weapon raw materials tumble 35% for the week, falling to .13 by mid-week and then holding steady despite inter-day pressures for .12cc. Food raw material holds fairly steady throughout the week with some minor ups and downs. Given the already low price of food raw materials (.03cc) there's not much downside left. The Raw Material Index takes a dive off weapon's drop, falling 17 points to 35.56.

Low-end (Q1-Q4)weapon prices hit new lows mid-week before halting their slump, pulling out a solid 14% gain over last week and a 21% gain over the mid-week lows. Prices still tend to move 10% even within a day, so low-end weapons remain a play for those trying to market-time. High end weapons (Q5-Q7), on the other hand, steadily shed price all week. The worst drop being Q7 at 35% reduction over last week. The high-end weakness offsets the low-end gains as the Weapons Index pushes a point lower to 26.90.

Low-end food prices gain a measure of stability as Q1-Q4 mostly hold prices for the week. High-end food encounters an oddity as Q5 & Q6 sell for the same price at points during the week. Q6 & Q7 food see strong declines of 35% for the week as the Food Index tumbles again, falling to 12.55.

Wages hold steady at week's start, then start to slide. The eUSA bonus reduction hits wages which slip to $60 before steadying. Wages drop 32% for the week, pushing the Wage Index down to 20.68

Gold takes a big jump at the start of the week, going from the high 600s to the low 800cc per unit. Gold reverts back to the daily losses we have all come to expect over the last 60 days, but still up 6% for the week. The Gold Index lands at 43.86, the first weekly rise since Day 1677 (June 23rd).

The Big Graph:


And a closer look at the last fortnight:

Gold's jump is pretty clear. Raw materials have held steady for a bit as has food.

The 1600 AU Index
Based off of the amount of gold a player could earn in a year by working at market wage, selling 20 weapons, 200 food (both Q6) and 1750 raw materials (split 50/50 food/weapons) the 1600 AU Index drops fast as gold's surge coupled with the weakness in raw materials and the strong drops in Q6 food & weapons conspire to hammer the Index down 141 points to 283.78

The ugly graph:


Self-employment profits
Weapon raw materials (WRM) have held back low-end profitability for a few weeks. Does this week's strong 35% decline in raw material prices matter to the self-employed? A chart would help.


So close. Q4 returns to a modest profit as its price improves 9% along with the slide in WRM. Q1 can't quite make the jump, however as pricing just hasn't strengthened enough. Q2 & Q3 just can't get a break. Prices remain too low even with the WRM drop. Q7, last week's profit king, slips behind Q6 as the plummeting price offsets the WRM savings.
Food continues to live on the edge as raw materials and prices hold steady on the low-end. The slide on the upper end has eaten far into profits. Last week Q7 food was returning $138 in profits.

A look at profits over time:
Q1 companies:


The fall in WRM prices along with rising mid-week prices helps to bring Q1 weapon close to breakeven. Q1 food has been steady.

Q2 companies:

The 1600 Index supposes its better, if one considers getting poked in the eye "better" than getting poked in both eyes.

Q3:

Close.

Q4 next:


Back to life. Nice to cover costs and turn a profit.
Q5 last:

Weapons bounce back with drop in WRM prices and overtake food.

What about other countries, the reader may ask. What does self-employment profits look like with other countries' VAT and pricing structure. The 1600 Index did two quick chart: one for eCanada, with lower bonus' and higher taxes, and eBrazil with higher bonuses and modest taxes.
eCanada first


Not much different, really. Q1-Q3 weapons still at a loss with decent profits at Q6.

eBrazil


Slightly lower WRM prices and slightly higher market prices means breakeven for Q1. But Q2 & Q3 weapons are still in the red. Food profits are greater than weapon profits nearly across the range.

Employer profits
Lets hire out and see what we get:

The highlighted row is the bonus reduction. The falling WRM helps Q5 employers turn a small profit. For one day. Declining market prices have suppressed Q7's profits even with the drop in WRM. Even with the bonus reduction, Q6 employers are doing OK. Not great, but OK.

Food employers:


Two bucks. The 1600 Index pays more than that for a cup of coffee and a doughnut. Although The 1600 Index should really cut down on the doughnuts.


Some quick 5-day moving average graphs
In the following charts, the blue line represents the market price at 3:00 eRep time. The red line in the 5-day moving average (average of the last 5-days) of market prices. What that tells us is whether prices are trending downward (the market price is below the moving average) or trending higher (the market price is above the moving average).

Raw materials


Big drop, but has leveled a bit.



Food raw material has been fairly steady.



Gold:




Note: prices are reflective of a percentage of Day 1600's price (Hence the "1600 Index"). In other words if an index is quoted at 88, that days price is 88% of the price on Day 1600. Except the 1600 AU Index which represents an amount of gold one can buy given market conditions as noted in that section.

Methodology on prices: prices are taken at 3:00 eRep time. The price is the average price of buying 1,000 Raw materials, 500 Food, 100 weapons (at each quality level), and 8 gold, plus the market wage less any fraction of cc (so 240, rather than 240.1). All qualities are standardized to Q1 (per hit or per health).

Sic transit gloria mundi



 

Comments

klop123
klop123 Day 1,755, 06:21

Voted!

TorrinTheGreat
TorrinTheGreat Day 1,755, 07:36

Voted, great article man! Please keep up the good work

Plugson
Plugson Day 1,755, 08:17

Q4 is profitable, what! Ah, must only be in the states, though maybe I'll check north of the border to see if I should start hiring.

Jetsmets
Jetsmets Day 1,755, 08:31

Q2 weps, y u no making self-profit?!

Wilhem Klink
Wilhem Klink Day 1,755, 08:54

@plugson - There's an eCanada chart up there for self-employment. An owner is only making less than $11 by themselves. Since you'd have to pay a worker $50, there's no way a Q4 can make money with employees at market wage.

Plugson
Plugson Day 1,755, 09:00

ha, good point. A 10$ dollar wage would not be so attractive to bring in the employees. And you don't even want the kind of worker that such a wage would attract...

kemal terk

Anderson Pimentel
Anderson Pimentel Day 1,755, 09:36

You forgot to change from 12% to 5% the VAT in eBrazil from Q2~Q7 company.

Apart from that, great and voted!

Wilhem Klink
Wilhem Klink Day 1,755, 10:20

Good catch. I thought I has set up that chart to replicate the top rows down (so I don't have to keep entering repetitive info), but I didn't with tax. I have updated it to reflect the correct tax.

Axeplorer
Axeplorer Day 1,755, 13:17

raw prices are not result of bonus reduction...prides are similar in all countries...

Paladn
Paladn Day 1,755, 21:41

Always read, always voted. But I don't agree... bonus reductions is bad all over, has nothing to do with price changes though.

Ma4num
Ma4num Day 1,756, 07:51

http://www.erepublik.com/en/citizen/profile/5271729 BLKC is a big scammer dont do business with him

HisAirness
HisAirness Day 1,757, 02:36

Your newspapers are pure gold ! Please keep doing it !

HonoreDeBalzac
HonoreDeBalzac Day 1,758, 09:36

why this guy hasnt at least 1-2MediaMogulMedals????

vote

DragoonXRyu
DragoonXRyu Day 1,762, 07:42

@Honore: Because not everyone likes seeing graphs and numbers. A vast majority would rather just work and fight than actually thinking about economics.

Voted

 
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