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The American Poll Service (APS) is conducting a study of party popularity, as pertaining to the top five political parties in the United States (USWP, Lib., CVP, UIP, AAP). In part one, we analyzed the results of the past six Congressional elections, without regards to "sixth party" candidates running under top five banners.

USWP: The APS has observed USWP dominance over the past half year in Congressional elections. Despite a drop in seats and popularity during the February-March 2009 period, the USWP still held its number one position, staying at least two seats ahead of the second place Conservative Party (CVP). The USWP has seen a strong rebound in the past two months, at least partially attributable to President Scrabman's high popularity among Americans (see: http://eusforum.com/index.php/topic,5016.0.html). The USWP has averaged 17.5 Congressional seats over the past half year, at least 8.5 higher than any other party. It will be tough for any other top five party to challenge the USWP for the number one spot in the near future.

Libertarian Party: The Libertarians maintain a high average of 9 for Congressional seats over the past six months, but that numbers drops to 7.75 when only the last four months are considered. Despite a strong showing in the April 25 elections, the Libertarians continue to struggle to reflect their membership rating, which is second only to the USWP.

Conservative Party (CVP): After a Congressional collapse in January '09, when the CVP won just 4 seats, the Conservative Party staged a comeback. They won 12 seats in both March and February '09, nearly challenging the USWP for the majority in March. But inner-party tensions may explain the CVP's recent dropoff, the past two months they have only been able to garner 8 seats. The CVP averages 8.8 seats over the past six months, a good showing considering their blunder in January. The CVP currently rates second in Congressional seats, but could easily fall as far back as fourth or fifth in June, as the competition for second is quite close.

UIP: Despite placing fourth in party membership, the UIP has consistently been unable to capture a large number of seats in Congress. They captured as many as 9 in April '09, and as few as 4 in February of the same year. The UIP averaged the lowest of all five major parties over the past six months at 6.8. Their improved Congressional status in the past three months remains fragile, but the UIP has beaten it's foremost position challenger - the AAP - for the past two months in a row.

AAP: The AAP is the latest victim of the USWP's skyrocketing popularity, they have lost seats in Congress in both of the last two elections. Being the main liberal alternative to the USWP, the AAP gained big when President Uncle Sam was first elected, but have since suffered the consequences of his impeachment. President Scrabman's success and re-election further damaged the AAP's reputation. The AAP is one of three parties (Lib., UIP, AAP) that lost seats on May 25 (the CVP did not gain or lose any). The AAP averaged a solid 9.0 over the past half year, mostly due to their now-diminished popularity from January-March '09. They rank fifth in both membership and Congressional seats, and although they maintain a large bridge from sixth parties such as the Federalist Party, they must avoid a "nail in the coffin" scenario by bouncing back.

TOP 5 PARTY CONGRESSIONAL SEATS IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS (disregarding sixth party candidates running under Top 5 banners)



TOP 5 PARTY SIX MONTH CONGRESSIONAL AVERAGE




FOR BETTER VERSION OF GRAPHS, SEE: http://eusforum.com/index.php/topic,5269.msg102484.html#msg102484