Join the new world

In this article I brought you news of Greece's impending break into the top ten charts when Greece was still teetering around number 13. Today, two weeks later, it is September, Greece is now number 8 by experience points, and it is time to review how we've moved on the boards in the last two weeks and take yet another look at possible factors of change and the future.



Total Experience Points

Previously: "Total experience points as of the morning of August 18 : rank #13 (1247725). Countries ahead of us: Indonesia, Hungary, Romania, USA, Russia, Poland, France, Spain, Brazil, Serbia, United Kingdom, and Croatia."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #8 after the current top 7, moving ahead of Spain, Brazil, Serbia, United Kingdom, and Croatia. Greece already frequently moves, briefly, into #11 these days. Prediction based primarily on continued emigration from Spain."

Now: Total experience points today, the morning of September 2 : rank #8 (2486529), moving in front of all the listed countries, including #9 and #10 Serbia and Brazil.

My prediction for the end of September : rank #10, with Spain and Serbia moving ahead, although Serbia is more of a toss-up. Prediction based on the idea that immigration and emigration factors over the next month will be a negative or at most low total experience gain, creating some short-term slippage against Serbia, which does not have immigration as a very significant factor of its growth.

Population Number

Previously: "Population number as of the morning of August 18 : rank #10 (6642 people). Countries ahead of us: France, Hungary, Russia, Indonesia, USA, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Poland. We've jumped ahead of the United Kingdom and Spain."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #9 (about 7500 people, ahead of Poland). That's the conservative estimate, keeping in mind that while immigrants come, they also go, as they find that there are other economic opportunities or political causes to seek elsewhere. Greece is also currently experiencing a newborn population rate (over 200-300 a day) similar to pre-war USA. It's possible for Greece to move into the #6 or #7 spot, long-term."

Now: rank #9 (about 8800 people, ahead of Poland's 7800). My absolute estimate was far too conservative, especially considering the perpetually high number of new sign ups in Greece, but the relative position predicted turned out to be correct.

My prediction for the end of September : rank #9 (about 10,000 people and still ahead of countries Poland, the UK, Brazil, Canada, Spain, and Turkey). If my previous survey showing that only one third of immigrants arriving (mostly in a two-week period of August) have left after a week is any indication, Greece may still have more population growth from immigration yet to come this month. Yet, if the same survey is any indication, the most advanced characters have little inclination to stay long-term, so the previous comment about possible negative exp gain from immigration and emigration may yet hold.

As a side-note, it would be very exciting if Greece ever leaped ahead of Romania, Croatia and Serbia--even briefly--as that would give us the #6 spot and visibility to people who haven't even signed up yet on the front page.

Nominal GDP

Previously: "Nominal GDP as of the morning of August 18 : rank #5 (3544 gold). Countries ahead of us: Russia, France, Hungary, and Indonesia."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #5 with the same countries ahead of us. Part of the reason for the current number is that the "recommended exchange rate" values GRD at a slightly higher ratio of the true value of GRD to Gold as compared to other countries."

Now: rank #2. Incredible! Greece has jumped in front of Russia, France, and Indonesia to put out a whopping 4300 gold GDP. Only 300 gold lies between Greece and #1 spot Hungary.

There is a caveat worth making. The calculation for GDP is based on a "recommended exchange rate" (RER) that is based more on the amount of goods bought and sold for a given amount of currency (multiplied by the amount of currency exchanged) than it is based on the monetary market's exchange value for the goods at the price at which they're sold. The details are in the eRepublik wiki. It can be observed that GRD is worth much more than HUF by this calculation, even though the HUF is worth more on the monetary market. It can be debated which is a greater sign of economic health. It's encouraging either way for Greece, which has never had it so good.

My prediction for the end of September : it's hard to say. I am hoping it is #5 this time, with the USA pulling into the top four (with Hungary, Indonesia, and Russia) and France falling to #6. Literally any of the top 10 spots are possible, however, as Spain and Canada recover, and Romania always puts in a strong showing. Other nations such as resource-blessed Brazil also threaten to break into the top 10 themselves.

Number of Companies

Previously: "Number of companies as of the morning of August 18 : rank #15 (470 companies). Countries ahead of us: Indonesia, Hungary, Russia, France, Romania, Brazil, Iran, Poland, United Kingdom, Portugal, Ukraine, USA, Serbia, and Spain."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #13 with Spain and Serbia falling behind. In eRep, investment of capitalists into companies are, in a reversal of RL trends, a lagging indicator of growth. It takes a longer time for them to realize that this is a good place to invest than it does to get people to move. Greece needs not only more Iron companies but also more Manufacture companies and Housing companies to service the growing population and utilize the expanding workforce in those sectors."

Now: rank #14 with 668 companies. Spain jumped back into its rightful place on the top 10 list, and Serbia is still inches ahead. Who has fallen behind us? I'm guessing Portugal.

Look at that in absolute terms, and you'll see that there are 200 more companies in Greece just over the past two weeks. Since wages have not dramatically increased, and our GDP is obviously benefiting greatly, I take some satisfaction in my declaration, also two weeks ago, that "Greece Needs Companies."

My prediction for the end of September : rank #13 with Serbia falling behind. Get your back into it, capitalists! Housing is still a critical need. There is also room in the Gifts and Weapons industries. And it's always roomiest at the top (we need more Q3, Q4, and Q5 companies for Manufacture of Weapons and even Food).

Exports

Previously: "Exports as of the morning of August 18 : rank #3 (261.41 gold). That's behind only Russia and Indonesia."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #2 (about 300 gold). The main reason being that Greece is the preferred supplier of iron for countries not at war with Indonesia, Hungary, Russia, and France."

Now: rank #1 (about 600 gold). Wow! Third-place Russia with 320 gold of exports is blown out of the water, and second-place goes to Ukraine with 466 gold in exports. I guess it is hard to do a lot of imports and exports within the PEACE GC, which is at war with almost any country not in their "high five" resource club.

My prediction for the end of September: rank #3 (about 500 gold). Competition from Spain and the Ukraine should reduce somewhat the amount of exportation. I expect the first five spots to be held mostly by non-PEACE nations: potentially Greece, Spain, Ukraine, Canada, and the USA.

Imports

Previously: "Imports as of the morning of August 18 : rank #9 (about 60 gold). Behind Mexico, USA, China, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzogovina, Turkey, Uruguay, and Iran."

"My prediction for the end of August : rank #7 (about 80 gold). Greece has a robust economy to be able to afford imports and has no high resources except iron, so this should only grow. But this is a lagging indicator because it depends on export licenses. Long-term, Greece may be #5 or so."

Now: rank #1 (about 540 gold). I really did not predict this, did I? Most of this has been importation of the past two weeks only! It seems that the world has woken up to the wonderful market that is Greece for their Grain, Oil, Wood, Diamonds, and even finished goods such as Weapons. This is both a blessing and a curse, but so long as there is a demand for Greek Iron, it is mostly a blessing.

Prediction for the end of September: rank #1 (about 600 gold). I believe that more business owners in Greece will wake up to the realities of trade and do more "black importation" of raw materials. Also, I believe that Manufacture companies in Greece are getting more efficient, and this reduces the ability and desire of importers to compete. For these reasons, I am making the bold prediction that the rate of imports over the next four weeks will be just about half what they have been over the last two weeks. They would still be about twice the #2 ranking importer.

Average Strength

Previously: "Average strength as of the morning of August 18 : rank #42 (2.86 strength). Greece has obviously experienced a true baby boom that is just as important as its immigration, and this is reflected in the relatively low average strength."

"My prediction for the end of August : approx rank #36 (3.0 strength). The best thing for this is to make sure that new players become familiar and happy about eRepublik and that new immigrants become integrated with eGreek society and happy to stay. This will require the mentoring programs for the new players and perhaps some other kind of program for newcomers to Greek shores."

Now: Greece has risen to rank #30 (3.21 strength). There are many possible ways to interpret this. One is that immigration by exp has peaked or is going to peak, and that this has lifted up the average temporarily. Another is that immigration has raised it and will continue to raise it. Yet another is that an increase in the rate of Greek newborn population that started its dramatic upward trend more than a month ago has now brought both mature players and dead inactive players to Greece, and the both work to improve the average. However it is interpreted, it is a good sign, and it beat my prediction.

My prediction for the end of September: rank #26 (3.4 strength). I am still anticipating more of the super soldiers who have moved to Greece to move back to their home countries, especially the USA, which is only now starting to look like a very good place to work (and which has not yet recalled its military). I also think that Greece will continue to enjoy high rates of newborn citizens per day, which tend to be inactive and thus to hold down the average.

Go Team!

To sum up: Greece today, September 2, 2009, is #8 for rank by exp, is #9 for population number, is #2 by nominal GDP, is #14 by number of companies, is #1 by exports, is #1 by imports, and is #30 by average strength. My predictions were accurate for exp rank and population, but they were well exceeded in terms of GDP, exports, and imports. Average strength also improved by more than I anticipated.