Join the new world

Trying to predict where this game is going under the admins’ arbitrary hand is a bit of a mug’s game,
but let’s play all the same.

The new combat module is an attempt to address a problem of a game with an established player base which I have expounded upon several times in these pages. Think for a moment of a number of other MMO games you have played or heard of – Why do you think they have a level cap? It is to ensure that the new player doesn’t feel the game is unfairly stacked against them, that they have no chance to excel or even survive in a pool of players where others have a (large) headstart. For players of a game with the level cap, there are distinct phases:
1. Very rapid early advancement
2. Mid game competence and content
3. Mature game, approaching the level cap
4. Play at or beyond the level cap: additional content, opening of a new dimension in the meta-game, or rebirth to stage 1 with advantages

But erepublik really doesn’t have that 4th stage. There’s no real “extra content” (you might argue high political office qualifies). And high level players are key economic drivers of the game as gold purchasers. So you have a challenge of trying to keep the new player from quitting and still keeping the old player buying gold.

The new combat module has an idea of how to do that, which is to separate combat so that different levels of players are fighting against their peers. But the manner in which it does that is largely a failure because it is completely bewildering to the new player and frustrating to the older one.
The new player doesn’t understand the game dynamic enough to know how his contribution is making a difference. This is ironic, because while of course a new player doesn't have the influence of an older one, the new system gives him far more than he used to have. But the mechanic appears to say the opposite, and it is a big leap to expect a new player to see past the appearances to the underlying truth.
Meanwhile the older player is asking, “Why did I spend all that gold on training when it turns out I can’t make a big difference in combats anymore?”
Witness the number of combats in which Division IV handily wins their section, but still loses the battle.
Frustrating. Definitely not an incentive to spend big resources in battles.

Now, one could say that this new system does have an advantage in that there is a new incentive for the established player to recruit new players. This is also of course an incentive to create multis, but
no-one would do that, because that would be wrong and these matters are very well policed.

In short, the new combat system fails certain key tests of transparency, clarity (ease of understanding), and apparent fairness. (Note, I don’t suggest the new system isn’t fair – “fair” means different things to different people, anyway. But it doesn’t clearly seem to be fair, and that’s the key.)

It has, however, shook up the balance of power, and you can see the ascendancy of certain nations which the new combat module has ushered in. Cue discussions of “fairness” again.

That’s military. What’s happening on the economic side?
Well, as I and many others predicted (see N x NE passim) the junk product market continues to collapse.
In just 2 months, the value of these products has fallen by around 33% in constant (gold) terms, as prices have fallen but gold keeps rising.
I predict July will see Gold consistently in the $3200 US range – double what it was in March.
And since there’s no real demand for these products, only platobots, there’s no end in sight.

Ok, now my third index, which I shall call “social”. Here let’s be honest, we are moving from empirical (i.e real and verifiable) evidence to anecdotal (i.e made up subjective bullcrap). So my impressions could be little more than indigestion, plus geographical context, age as a player, circle in which I travel and observe, etc. Also, bitching about this game is one of the central activities here (you’re reading this, aren’t you?), and it’s as constant as the northstar, but still, I think people are a bit cranky and, far from being energized by the new combat module, are less engaged than before.
With that disclaimer out of the way, doesn't it feel like people are actually de-energized by the latest round of changes? Is this not the Summer of our Discontent, a sort of low level humm of grumbling without optimism? There isn't even the rage to get upset anymore.

What does all this mean? Well, it will show up on the balance sheet of the admins, you can be sure of that.
So I expect changes. Which of course, there’s always changes coming, so it takes no great prophet to predict that, but I expect (unless they’ve lost the core of guys who program this game) bigger changes than usual.
If I had to guess, my guess would be that the pendulum is about to swing back toward making things a little more complicated again, specifically on the economic side.
I say this in part because it’s not like they could get much simpler, but also because as I’ve explained before, fragmenting the market and workforce is one of the ways to create the sorts of inefficiencies that the admins actually want in the marketplace, both because it helps suppress the oversupply problem and stimulates demand for gold.

For my part, I continue to slowly acquire gold and wait and see what fresh new hell awaits in the next round of changes.


TL/DR: I am predicting an economic module shake-up, and counsel you hold your gold until we see what it is.


N x NE, Volume 6, Number 9