The Prime Minister Election Preview

Day 919, 01:48 • Published in Australia Croatia • by CrowdedHouse

Good Afternoon eRepublik Australia.

For this article I take off my campaign hat and throw back on my journalist hat for something I haven't done in a while - my famous in-depth election preview.



This June 5th sees FIVE serious candidates battling it out to be Prime Minister of eRepublik Australia. Though there is ONE clear favourite of the group, each candidate's run has an effect on the other's vote, meaning anything could happen!



Widdows9000 seems to be coming into this election as a "Cottus-Arci Lite".

Like Cottus, he's big on the Military, it's tactics and has their support. He's a player that's got plenty of experience behind him, and it seem the 'older' player are getting behind him.

He's cabinet is promising a mix of old and new, but is also seen as steady and not rocking the boat.

We call Widds "Cottus-Arci Lite" as he may seem similar, but is not as out-spoken as Cottus. This also means he hasn't been able to whip up a media storm like Cottus could.

Also he's going into the election with a split centre vote. He will lose a % of the left to Dean Kong, most of the right will stick with SC, He'll lose a few Independents to Viado and he may lose some newbies to CrowdedHouse.

Simply, if Widds pulls 200 votes or more he should win. However, if he's votes are below 200 with under 3 hours to go, he could be in danger of losing.

Outlook: He should remain favourite as other candidates maybe pinching too many votes off each other to gain momentum. The lock he has on the Military vote and 'older' players, should be enough to do the job.



The centre-right's only Prime Minister (after Cerb resigned) is still on the hunt to finally win a Prime Minister election.

It's interesting to note in the ANP Primaries that Sir_c0nstant just got 50% of the vote with Widds scoring a large % just falling short due to CH picking up some votes - could this be a sign of the bigger picture?

Sir_c0nstant must be worried that he hasn't got near 100% support in that primary. He will have to work hard to make sure that all of the right wing voters get behind him.

The best chance he has of victory is Widds losing votes to the likes of DK, CH and Viado. If this brings the overall Widds vote to under 200, then SC is in the box seat to win.

The factor working against him is the "Bride's maid" factor. That is people have seen him lose many times before and maybe become apathetic to him. With no great noise coming out of the ANP camp SC has a big task in front of him.

Outlook: Sometimes having your name in too many PM elections can be a bad thing. That said, he did have a strong showing in the senate elections. I predict around 160 votes for SC - the outcome is out of his control, he just has to hope the rest of the vote is split, to win.



The controversial CrowdedHouse was the first to throw his hat in for June Prime Minister, way back in April. He was first out of the blocks with policy ideas and proposed cabinet, that has seen either seen strong support or even stronger condemnation of him.

He comes into the election with the "Nick Clegg Factor". That is, in the recent RL UK election, Nick Clegg's popularity saw the rise of a genuine 3rd challenger in the UK. He forced his opponents into an unusual 3-way battle and gained plenty of media support and hype.

However on election day, that failed to turn into a serious threat for the leadership. It did however stop any of the big 2 from gaining a majority and in the end forced David Cameron to make a coalition government with him.

For CrowdedHouse to win he has to secure across the board support. He needs to pinch a little from the right, take the 2-clicker vote and steal a some of the left, plus try and find whatever centre/independent vote is left over.

If Widds is a "Cottus-Arci Lite" then CH is a "Cozza Lite". He needs that same type of voting support but unlike Cozza he's missing the key support of a few older players, most of which is due to his role as the Smear King is many elections - making himself a big target for smear.

It's safe to say though that CrowdedHouse cannot be underestimated. Despite the heat he gets from other players, he's strongest skill in eRepublik is the election campaign (especially in smaller parties) and has always been elected every time he ran for senate/congress. No doubt the other candidates are waiting to see what trick he pulls out of the bag next.

Outlook: Hard to call. The CrowdedHouse vote could be small or could be large. The only chance of him winning is in a 3-way even vote count. Prediction is 100 votes and will be interesting to see if he strips enough votes from Widds bringing SC into a chance of winning.



Communist Dean Kong is having another shot at PM. Many months ago DK was a popular and highly active player on the forums and in the press. These days DK is still seen around the IRC, but seems a little more quiet in the press.

Last year a "left wing" candidate would have been one to fear. With combined support of the ADSP and ACP he would have been unstoppable. Sadly the ADSP has seen better days, but the ACP seems to be on a slow build up the ladder.

The critical question is can Dean Kong whip up enough press to put him in the spotlight and bring out a strong left vote? Like the other candidates he needs a split vote to be able to challenge Widds.

The problem is for DK, CH has taken the spotlight for the newbie/2-clicker/centre vote stripping him of that crucial support, while he can't look to the Independents as they have now put up their own candidate.

Dean Kong needs to start publishing left-wing articles and fast, and needs a campaign machine behind him which seems to be missing at the moment.

Outlook: There is a fear some may see DK as a lulz candidate (whether right or wrong) thus may weaken his left wing vote. Expect DK to gain 80 votes and finish 4th. The only say he may have in the race is if he directs supporters elsewhere.



The Independents have come out and decided to support one of their own Vidao Celtru

Now before we write off the Independents, it's worth mentioning that the current PM is of course also an Independent.

The tough thing for Viado is, that despite being placed in other people's cabinets, there is no media hype behind him what-so-ever.

As an Independent does Viado have the skill to put his policies out there and create the hype to get voters interested in him?

The tactic Viado needs is a strong cabinet and the aim of winning a 'protest' vote - a wake up call to all other candidates from the voters. However that comes back with the need to create hype.

Like the others, a split vote will help Viado, but the campaign planning must look at how to pick off voters from elsewhere... or have the back-up plan of where to send voters if losing early.

There maybe one wildcard Viado does have. As an Independent, if he got the current PM's vocal and public support - it would make the election a whole different ball game.

Outlook: The Election is very much a popularity contest and it's felt voters maybe just simply not interested or don't know Viado well enough. A last place finish looks likely.



What would be an election without an unexpected twist.

What is expected is that Indonesia PTOer Bajaj will make a run for PM. Now only the Top 5 parties with a candidate can run their candidate for PM. It looks likely all PTOers will rush to the ALAY Party late to force it into the Top 5.

IF by some miracle, they miss out on that Top 5 votes, this leaves a lot of PTO votes sitting around (maybe 100).

Those 100 votes are certainly enough to change the course of a tight election and could sky-rocket a lower candidate into the lead.

Plus add the factor that admin will take 6 hours to look at all votes, a first past the post may not be the eventual winner if the PTOer votes are looked at closely.

Whatever the result, this will certainly be Australia's most interesting election ever