Diplomacy more and more is mirroring the RL with interests, lobbies and bilateral relations sometimes overriding principles and alliances.
This can be well seen in both EDEN and TWO, but is probably true to some extent in CoT as well. Though as the weakest still out of the 3 alliances it is more understandable from CoT.
So what is the situation now and why it is as it is, is a very interesting topic. I'll try to do a little analysis and present a perspective on things. Of course this perspective comes from my own position, but I'll try to be as unbiased as one possibly can and it will be up to everyone to make their own conclusions.
I'll do this in general and then will talk a little about what it all means for India.
The threat called CoT.
For EDEN this is a reality, but it is also a possibility for TWO. CoT was being dismissed as the "puppet alliance" of Bulgaria, full of small countries and with no future. Then it was labeled and to some degree continues to be labeled as the "puppet alliance" of TWO. Still however it is the only alliance actually growing and not only from outside (through adding members), but from inside too (developing it's own members).
While this is good for CoT it is bad for EDEN, hence why over the last 1.5 years though EDEN has kept to the rhetoric of "evil SErbia and evil Poland" it has rarely fought against them or TWO. Most of the time EDEN has focussed on trying to bring down CoT before it became strong and self-sufficient or as it is an easier target now. Internal lobbies also had something to do, but more importantly there is no resources to be had from the TWO sphere so whenever the big countries in EDEN are on the map and looking for resources, the only thing some of them really fight for, they target CoT sphere.
TWO on the other hand is more then happy to see CoT lead the fight against EDEN on most fronts and get involved in an auxiliary role. It cannot stay aside and watch things as it needs to bridge the gap in terms of damage, however it can do it from a much more confortable position. It has lead a few drives of it's own but they have been mostly short bursts, where CoT has been on the trenches from it's inception.
As CoT continues to grow and become stronger however it starts to pose a risk and threat to TWO as well, especially in a post-EDEN world. Thus what has already started to happen and will happen more in the future is for us to see attempts at influencing internal decisions in CoT or being "choosy" when to and when not to provide military support.
Of course this tactic will not achieve their goals but only prop up CoT even more in the long term. Basically what the old boys on the block do not realize is that CoT is as much a product of the "denial" policy EDEN has employed and TWO seems willing to pick up in an attempt to limit the alliance and it's influence on the New World.
EDEN the longest standing alliance in the game
Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately for EDEN, it is the longest standing alliance in the game by name only. In essence it is no different then TWO as the only long standing part of it is it's core big countries (Croatia + Romania) + the second tier big countries (Greece with Turkey desperately wanting to join in that status). In TWO that is Serbia + Hungary + Slovenia and the addition of Poland + Spain. While TWO has changed names, EDEN hasn't however other then the name, nothing else is different between the two.
Since it is unwilling to accept it's demise in name mostly EDEN has now more former members then current. That coupled with the policy of marking everyone depending on curent interest as "traitors" has limited EDEN's ability to be a factor in the game and will continue to do so in the future. There has been an attempt to revise that strategy with Argentina, however it is coming too little too late. Simply put, the EDEN core has lost the longstanding war with TWO core, but they will never admit that and so the propaganda wars will continue.
Second big problem for EDEN is, that by incorporating Turkey and Argentina they made it imposible for any cooperation with CoT, which means that there is now virtually noting else but themselves left to fight their enemies.
the choice has been to focus on CoT, which has only dug a bigger and bigger hole as CoT has not succumbed but actually continually and persistently grown. This choice of strategy however has reduced the strongest (on paper only) alliance to become a non-factor in the new world and virtually handing to TWO the influence to decide over what happens in the ne world.
There is a certain amount of truth when they cry everywhere that Serbia or Poland decides this and Serbia or Poland decides that. They do, but not because everyone is a puppet, but because of the influence they currently have, all of it in direct result of EDEN actions and not really their own.
Simply put, by not fighting against Serbia and Poland, they have allowed them to outsource their damage and have gained huge influence due to that. Of course Serbia and Poland have also learned a lesson since the last time they were in the same position (ironically thanks to similar policies of the main countries in EDEN) and that is to be more involved in others battles and less egoistical. Then again EDEN has not put them in a position to have to defend their economic base, so they haven't really had a chance to be egoistical either.
Future for EDEN is bleak, not only because there is no one left to recruit out there, but because the new wave of players below D4 are more dispersed in non-EDEN sphere. Especially CoT which has a much larger share in D1 and D2 then higher. In time that will translate to a weakening in D4 for EDEN and so things will become even worst.
TWO rules the world
At this point of time, TWO does rule the world, however it is not the unconditional position ONE had a while back for a short period of time. It only has this position while it supports CoT against the assault of EDEN. However as it does not need to be on the front-lines all the time it can influence to a certain extent who wins where and when.
It is still a compact alliance, but will try to expand, most likely under the old "pro/slave" formula wich has been championed by both EDEN core countries and TWO core countries in the past. Current status quo in the world is perfect for TWO and they don't want to see any changes, least of all they want to see EDEN disappear, EDEN is TWO's best ally which facilitates their economic empires through it's policy and is easily controlled while it has no chance of gaining strength.
In short EDEN has become a tool for TWO to keep their king of the hill position. The only danger to TWO is CoT if it continues to grow and gain strength as it is the only alliance capable of challenging it. However as long as EDEN is focusing on CoT, TWO can control CoT's development (at least in the short term) by offering or denying support at key moments.
So at this moment the survival of EDEN is more important to TWO, then to EDEN itself. It's ability to grow as an alliance however is limited and actually the best prospects for that are in EDEN currently. Greece, who has been laying a posible path already and Argentina which has already left EDEN and will be looking to get closer to TWO or bring back Brazil to EDEN side, with the former being more likely.
CoT, the Cinderella alliance
CoT has a weird name, simple beginnings and even more strange growing up process. Virtually everyone, including most people in Bulgaria itself thought that an alliance cannot be built on small countries. It turns out not only it can, but it can become a factor.
Basically CoT started with Bulgaria and Chile, one was a power, the other was a small and worthless (in many's eyes) country. Then over time more small countries joined. To make a long story short, before Indonesia and Macedonia joined, CoT was regarded as Bulgaria and a kindergarten and more a peculiarity then a real force to be reckoned with.
Still it did not succumb to the repeated and unceasing attempts by EDEN to destroy it early on. Actually that onslaught by EDEN only helped it become stronger, so through sheer determination it not only survived but grew. More importantly however it grew within as well as from outside. Chile is now a top power as well, MExico is a growing mid-sized country and Peru has recently made a modest BB as well and while it still has a long road ahead till it gets to a mid-sized status it has grown it's active players by 4-5 times and set itself ready for the next step.
All this is helping cohesion and strength of the alliance.
The main weaknesses of the alliance are that it is dependable on TWO damage as long as the dying EDEN alliance focuses on them, thus limiting their ability to help out and grow their members and strength. When eventually USA and Brazil join, it will gain the needed strength to match both other alliances and it's role with TWO could switch drastically overnight.
This process however is not going to be easy and involves the resolution of old problems within members of the alliance which both EDEN and to some extent TWO will try to exploit in the near future to keep the alliance from evening out with both of them.
The second danger to CoT, and which has been somewhat evident of late, is complacency. As the still weakest alliance in terms of military strength it needs to continually be the most active diplomatically. Work actively in both propping up it's own members and integrating the countries which can work with it and will guarantee it's viability in the long term into it.
Simply put CoT has to continue actively to grow and develop at least until it reaches or even surpasses EDEN and TWO military output so that it cannot be ground down into a subservient alliance as was the case with TERRA before.
Current situation on the battlefields
How does all this translates into the current situation on the battlefields is an important clue to what might happen in the near and not so near future.
The fall of Argentina and the yet another miscalculation of EDEN
EDEN allowed basically Argentina to fall and leave the alliance as it bets on Argentina being able to pull in Brazil towards it, now that there is no EDEN and no Romania to interfere and gain again Brazil on it's side. As Argentina will always remain anti-Chile this would guarantee the Argentina-Brazil duo on EDEN side. Also the hope is that that would mean domination in South Amerika once again.
This tactic however depends on Brazil deciding to cut ties with Spain (which it has recently created and improved) and USA with which it has been an ally for a long time now. Also the hope is that that would mean domination in South Amerika once again. In short EDEN looses only on paper a member, but regains Brazilian damage.
The problem however is, that the only one taking risks in this arrangement is Brazil as it will gain many opponents on it's borders, while for Argentina and EDEN nothing changes in that respect. Add the fact that USA is on a fast track into joining CoT and that CoT is the only alliance where there are no "undesirable" countries for Brazil, this proposition seems unlikely.
The more likely result would be, that in order to save the Brazil - Argentina relationship, upon wich EDEN is gambling, Brazil and Argentina together might join TWO if Brazil can work out it's problems with Hungary. Still Brazils own interests and future would be by far best served in CoT rather then TWO or as a damage puppet/drain for EDEN and Argentina.
Macedonia, the new powder-keg of the balkans
This is where the battle for supremacy between the three alliances will be decided and where the lines are being drawn. This however will not happen as most might think, it will not be the one inning on the battlefield that will benefit in the inter-alliance relations.
TWO is currently staying away from this front, for a few reasons.
"Punish" Macedonia mostly, but CoT as well for accepting USA on a CoT track.
The now traditional "love story" between Greeks and Serbs, after Greece gets deleted. In essence, Greece gets back on the map when Serbia stops fighting against them and not when EDEN starts fighting for them. This is not necessarily because the Serbian government chooses to do so, but more as a result of a large scale "orthodox brotherhood" propaganda campaigns done by Greece and some Serbians. Still the result is the same regardless.
EDEN focusing on CoT as a means to guarantee Croatia it's resources, as TWO has no interest in kicking Croatia out of Asia. Wrongfully thinking it is making Serbia more "offence" able by doing so. In reality it makes Serbia less offence able as Croatia is getting more weapons resources and is farming and stocking resources for the moment Serbia goes to war so they can start an RW. Hence how they force Serbia to look for help in defending the Croat RW even as they had no war of their own at the time.) To bring back Greece on the map, force a peace treaty on Macedonia, so that Turkey + Greece can join forces and retake the Arabian peninsula and rebuild their farms.
The result of it however will be that it opens the opportunity for quickly improving relations between USA and MAcedonia, a posible problem area within CoT and thus finishing the internal problems that possibly could arise from USA joining the alliance. This will also mean that the relationship between alliances in the game ill become more complex and smaller countries will gain some hope for their futures.
If it doesn't materialize, then EDEN core countries and especially TWO will be the winners as they will guarantee that the status quo currently and will put small countries in EDEN in a vassal position to TWO for a long time to come.
TWO has lately secured it's bonus base with agreements with countries which otherwise would be a RW drain to them, like France, Germany and Netherlands (maybe?).
Last important front, though one that is not getting much attention right now is India vs Croatia
While CoT is under siege from EDEN it is unable to help India even if it wishes to do so. TWO (in their opinion) have no interest in helping India to keep Croatia away from Balkans. This is an instance here the interests of EDEN and TWO are overlapping and thus mutual exclusion helping each other. Thus for CoT and for the new world as a whole this is the second test ground where it will become apparent if the status quo of the last 5 years can change.
If CoT is able ultimately to help India, regain it's independence as most within the alliance want to do, then it will mean that the long and arduous road from "laughing stock" to viable and independent alliance has been finished as it will demonstrate CoT's ability to achieve goals which are not symbiotic to TWO.
This will also mean the end of EDEN unless it decides to seek cooperation with TWO, which though it seems far fetched is not that imposible especially for some of the members within EDEN.
What all this means for India is a couple of things
First, the fight for independance ill be long and hard, however it has no other option but to carry it out, because any long term agreement with Croatia will mean subservience to Croatia and EDEN.
Second, TWO is not an option as an alliance which can adequately defend and promote Indian independence and interests at least in the near and moderate future, at least not before Croatia has left the region.
Third, it's only viable option for support is CoT, even if CoT is unable to help as much as needed as long as EDEN is besieging it. Thus the short term membership of CoT as a way to solve the problem with Croatia is unlikely to give immediate results, rather this is an option for the long term prosperity of the country.
Forth, the only way for India forward in a very dynamic and multipolar world is to help itself first. This means that for India at this very moment and for the foreseeable future a baby boom is the paramount priority and aim. Only by gaining population will it be able to guarantee it's long term success because regardless of how sympathetic or not other countries are toward sIndia's plight it will always be dependent on them if it does not have enough of it's own resources. Players and people are the ultimate resource of any country, nothing else comes even close to worth.
Fortunately, being erased or even without a congress for small countries nowadays is not as hard a blow as was once upon a time. Tax income is small enough that even without congress for 1 month it will not really effect the countries ability to function financially and there are no other consequences that come from that.
The lack of resources though somewhat important for small countries is not as vital as getting ne players. Once the population grows that so will the importance of having resources which can aid the development of players in the country. Food resources are irrelevant, only weapons resources matter.
For India and for Cot, because there is a mutual interest here for cooperation, the test will be how quickly and how well they can make the transition process, including helping India have a baby boom with wich it will become independent and help the alliance in the future.
This is the main advantage of CoT it still is an alliance which can gain and promote countries into growing and thus strengthening from inside. Both EDEN and TWO do not have that opportunity, because smaller countries do not share goals with either alliance.
Over the next few months there will be a cat and mouse game between all 3 alliances where EDEN will sell itself to the devil (or try) in order to survive (mostly in name) again, TWO will try to keep it's most influential position and resource base (it has already achieved everything it needs on that front) and CoT continue to claw and fight to gain an equal footing and position to the other two alliances.
Both EDEN and TWO do not have the ability to grow much more then they're at this point, the only alliance with potential to grow is CoT if it can witstand the onslaught which will come progressively stronger as they continue to gain on the big two.
Most importsant issues will be the ability of USA to integrate into CoT and be accepted (weather it can truly commit to the alliance).
Brazil's choice between TWO and CoT (EDEN is not an option).
The reaction of TWO in terms of the integration of USA into CoT, if they choose to influence CoT against it, they will make it harder in the short term, but probably put themselves in a tough position long term as for the USA right now this is "least of all evils" scenario, however it can quickly become into a viable future.
The fate of India, the last strategic frontier where all 3 alliances can contest (bad for India in the short term, but good for it's prospects for growth and development in the long term).
Russia used to be a factor, however it has remained for too long passive and now is no longer a factor in the future of any of the alliances and so it is not mentioned. Realistically it's future can only be in CoT, anything else is generally imposible for many reasons, the position of "everyones friend" is one that very fast will become entirely imposible. So far it is still in their hands, but the longer they ait the more it ill be taken out of their hands and others will choose their fate for them, likely the same which is logical to be as that is the only place they would truly receive support.
So I'll end it here, hopefully for the two people who read it will be interesting.
be different, be yourself.
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