The election's equation
Day 1,505, 03:34
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Published in Ireland 
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by
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by loyen
This is a small equation I have been working on this morning, I do not know if it will work, but we'll see tomorrow if "my" results are close to tomorrow's result, here how it works
CPM = candidate's party's member, SPM = supporting partie's member
CPM + SPM - 10% (of cpm and spm) + 16 = results
so, this month's election's calculus is below =
John smith:
cpm53 + spm22 + spm14 + spm10 - 10% (99x 100/10 = 9.9 = 10) + 16 = 105
mufc:
cpm51 + spm30 - 10% (81x 100/10 = 8.1 = 8 ) + 16 = 89
so, if my equation is right, jsk wins by a lot of votes, so he should be around 100 votes, and MUFC should be around 85 - 90
Please take a look, and tell us about what you think of it, or if you have your own version of it.
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You cant have an equation for this? Where did you even think this up?
this is approximate, there can NEVER be any equations to calculated something like this, but, around 10 percent of parties member either don't vote or vote for someone else, and a certain number (16 in this case) are the members who vote for someone else or non members voting.
I'm not going to question this 😛
if it is right, i like the article,
you can never be 100% right, but good work anyway Loyan.
"99x 100/10 = 9.9 = 10"
Dont let your maths teacher see that!
Do you think all members of the supporting party will vote the candidate their party prez has decided to endorse? When has that ever happened in any free election in the world... ever?
I'm not voting until very late in the day. I will base my vote on how the polls look at the time.
Loyen, you might be able to create a model that approximately gives an estimation, but not with random numbers. You would have to check all previous elections and see if there is a pattern, and then turn it into an equasion.
I actually believe that there could be an equasion that can give you a good result!
MATH IS POWER.
Yeah...This can really go both ways...I think there are people that will not vote for whatever candidate the party supports. Those are the penalty votes. Also your equation only takes into account members of political parties. Some ( I believe half) of the population is not involved with a specific party. Those vote will be stray variables.
Best thing you can do if you want a good picture of what is going on is do a survey.
loyen, sorry but this is kinda silly. The idea is good, but it's kinda pointless.
alex, the non members are part of the +16, +16 are non members and party members who vote for a candidate of an other party
pointless equation is pointless