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The Economist ~ The alliances gap

Day 2,040, 15:41 by Iain Keers
Note: All my work is open source. Please do translate it, copy it, republish it and spread it amongst your friends. You have my permission to do anything so long as you publish it in complete form in context and don't misquote me.




Dear friends


Today I want to talk about an increasing growth of “pariah” or unwanted countries in erep. Now most of us know that the natural state of the world is that there are two alliances in contention, and all nations more or less side with one or the other. But these days we have come to a point where the two main alliances – TWO and CoT, are such a web of overlapping loyalties and old allies that there are forming pariah states unwanted by either side, and nations which whilst in alliances lack support from many of their allies.


The perfect example of this would be France. Typically an ally of the North Americans, France was marginalised first by a NAP between the USA and Poland, and later by the USA’s entrance into CoT. Since then their citizen numbers have been in constant decline, and now they have almost no influence or presence on the world stage at all, with almost all their relations being bilateral ones and their most important diplomatic relationship being the one with the country currently occupying them.


These countries found themselves crushed between two warring brothers. Despite having a hostile relationship with TWO, the core members of CoT – MKD, Bulgaria, Chile, Indo – share a historical continuity. They are as much the cultural successor of the PEACE-Phoenix alliance as TWO is, perhaps more so in some ways. As a result they’ve inherited the prejudices and historical relationships of those alliances and thus have a very similar foreign policy as TWO do. Countries which were not part of this tradition – at least the significant ones – are now struggling to avoid marginalisation.


One solution to this is a change of tack. Greece managed this, mainly due to good relationships IRL with Serbia. The war with CoT (and especially MKD) meant that the support from TWO for Greece and Romania has gradually grown over the past few months. The ultimate result of this is the acceptance of Greece as the first full member of TWO added since founding, and the potential future entrance of Romania pursuant to the settling of relations with Spain and Hungary. In fact, even without entrance to TWO, support for Romania from Serbia makes their position totally safe.


However not every country has successfully adopted this strategy. One country which is notably out of place is the USA. After a briefly successful attack on Serbia last month, the US has faced the largest invasion since PEACE times and has been utterly defeated- with even tiny countries like Montenegro successfully establishing beachheads on the soil of one of eRep’s most powerful nations. The USA, officially a member of CoT, lacks support even from within it’s own alliance. The main reason it is still there is a lack of alternatives- the nearest being some sort of pan-American alliance with perhaps Spanish involvement. But that has really been in the pipeline since the birth of CTRL, and each time has stumbled over the same consistent problems.





Another pariah is Croatia. They’ve been a core member of EDEN since it’s foundation, but now they’re stuck in the wilderness. They are not trusted by many in CoT and their hostility towards Serbia (and vice versa) prevents them from developing any sort of relationship with TWO. Fortunately they are in relative safety in Asia, along with fellow Balkan nations Albania and BiH they are almost out of the game. Some ex-EDEN nations maintain MPPs, but really Croatia’s status is determined by its lack of threatening neighbours. Its relative safety means it has the luxury of time to make a decision about which way to go, much the same as China does. Most other nations in the war are forced into making a decision out of necessity.


In the past such pariah nations have proven to be the bedrock of new alliances. It’s arguable that CoT itself originally formed from nations which were ONE aligned but not welcome in ONE for whatever reason, and similarly these countries in their state of forced neutrality could easily provide the basis for a third alliance. The problem with this however comes with their geographic dispersal. Despite the airstrike module, regional strength still provides a huge factor in modern warfare. TWO’s greatest achievement won’t be remembered as being the recruiting of Greece or the conquest of America, but the Pax Europa it has established throughout the home continent. For the first time since eRep began, we’ve seen a long period with no real fighting in the Balkans. This solid wall of power across Central and Eastern Europe has allowed the six nations and their allies to totally dominate the continent. This dominance provides the basis for projecting power globally without the never-ending fear of an ambush in the rear.


However things can change. Just as TWO’s first period of hegemony was dependent on CoT allies fighting EDEN, TWO’s second period is dependent on the support of several countries which are not officially alliance members, Romania and Turkey, foremost amongst them. Despite having differences with these countries, no TWO nation wants to see a war with them or wants to see them on the other side. For now, mutual support is acceptable to both sides, but it isn’t necessarily the case. Croatia, France, Romania, Argentina, Colombia, Turkey, USA – between them these countries represent a sizable amount of power, and though they will not match TWO even combined, their loyalty and influence should not be taken for granted. TWO needs the support of many of these nations, without whom the alliance would be tied into a constant defensive spiral. Right now, they need TWO as well, but this could easily change.


Iain




Ps. Please also sub to Ministry of SinoFinance. I'll publish most of my economics related stuff there in Chinese and English as part of my job as MoF in eChina.
 

Comments

klop123
klop123 Day 2,040, 15:43

First? : 3

Truth! Great article as always!

Strength and Honour

WayneKerr
WayneKerr Day 2,040, 15:53

terrible piece of propaganda...

Simonovic94
Simonovic94 Day 2,040, 15:54

o/

Prophet009
Prophet009 Day 2,040, 16:01

voted, just because, kk? :o

JyM23
JyM23 Day 2,040, 16:03

I think I know what you're getting at and personally, I'm fine with it. To convince others though we'll probably need more direct and to the point articles. We also might have to await some military defeats, but by then of course it could be too late.

PeroST
PeroST Day 2,040, 16:06

yeah,we should all enter TWO,one big,happy family xD

Bucephalus92
Bucephalus92 Day 2,040, 16:32

great article, hopefully we can at least manage to maintain a congress.

Auk Rest
Auk Rest Day 2,040, 16:33

Great article

GregoryG
GregoryG Day 2,040, 16:39

I really, really should translate this for the Hungarian press :>

Ashkoort
Ashkoort Day 2,040, 16:46

Very interesting point of view.

New Faustian Man
New Faustian Man Day 2,040, 17:05

Whilst the fears you outline above were valid during the TEDEN/ONE days, and even occurred with Turkentina switching, once you take into account the sh*tty relations specifically Bulg/MKD have with nations like Turkey/Argentina/Greece etc. you have to question the likelihood of there being any sea change in allegiance by CUA and countries like Turkey, Iran or Romania to CoT.

More than likely, when the dust settles, CoT will capitulate and something like a US-Cro-Bra-led alliance (its inevitable at some point) will surface, open to everyone and anyone not in TWO. I'd start worrying then.

Nane Vutov
Nane Vutov Day 2,040, 22:41

At present a US-Cro-Bra-Ied alliance is a nonsence. US is the main reason for the hostilities between CoT and TWO. If US leaves CoT, we are going to withess a new CoT+TWO world domination.

Master Saita Norgan
Master Saita Norgan Day 2,041, 11:10

wrong after what TWO has done CoT doesnt trust TWO and who would?USA-Bra-Cro alliance would be pro CoT most likely

DrethGar
DrethGar Day 2,065, 05:49

cot-two vs who mate? Asgard or NaN lol

benjiparis
benjiparis Day 2,040, 17:31

Fucking Rubber bonus

Ariyan PiRoy
Ariyan PiRoy Day 2,040, 17:34

voted

Harry W. Hill
Harry W. Hill Day 2,040, 19:00

Good article.

Boy Blue
Boy Blue Day 2,040, 22:20

Sounds like we need more money and guns, commodities that are currently in seriously short supply.

nathaner
nathaner Day 2,041, 02:16

trust me , there not

Boy Blue
Boy Blue Day 2,041, 02:40

Any idea where to find them then? especially Guns and eGBP

Perdikos
Perdikos Day 2,041, 00:17

v

GrindingTruning
GrindingTruning Day 2,041, 00:40

Great article!

OVALNI REBORN
OVALNI REBORN Day 2,041, 01:54

Absence of China noted.
You moving to China also noted.

Interesting xD

Colonel Jack ONeal
Colonel Jack ONeal Day 2,041, 03:24

Yeah,Croatia definetly not to be trust. They don't care about anyone but themselfs.

Hail Serbia!
Hail Greece!
Hail Turkey!

Long live the friends!

googoodoll
googoodoll Day 2,041, 17:53

wtf do you know about Croatia?

Dave Trenga
Dave Trenga Day 2,041, 04:00

Great article as always!

Hail Romania!
Hail Serbia!
Hail TWO!

googoodoll
googoodoll Day 2,041, 17:56

So it'China's turn to be trolled? I wonder who gave you citizenship and why.

HungryHungary1 Day 2,042, 11:16

Comment deleted

Al Punk
Al Punk Day 2,052, 20:48

Very nice article!

 
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