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The Christmas Congressional Election Results

Day 1,863, 09:07 Published in USA Serbia by FirstLaw
It has been a chaotic December in the eUS, with both Unity and AFA battling for Congressional representation, but AFA retains a significant plurality over the other Unity parties in the top 5 for yet another month.



It must be cold outside because the political environment in the eUS has heated up! Electing the party president in eRepublik is an event that is rarely worth noting, but this month was an exception. The American Freedom Alliance (AFA) gained control of the party formerly known as iNCi in an attempt to expand their influence in the upcoming Congressional elections and perhaps knock a Unity party from the top five list, and hence from representation in Congress and their ability to nominate a presidential candidate.

Unity, put on the defensive, scrambles to organize a blocking maneuver by redistributing party membership more equally among their parties to resist AFA's attempts at control. The chart below illustrates the massive movement of party members among all the top five parties.



We see that AFA, who's party membership was increasing over the past two months, has declined slightly to manage a second party. The remaining Unity parties, which had declining membership over the past two months, seem reinvigorated and their numbers are starting to normalize between parties.

This is an interesting development in eUS politics, but election returns clearly indicate that AFA has retained their plurality and even expanded it from 33 to 34%. So, at best, Unity's efforts are a holding action to buy some time to formulate a strategy to retain control.



But Unity is far from out of the woods. According to the election returns, AFA is still the only party that draws in more votes than can be explained by their party numbers. This means in addition to members of their own party, there are others still voting for them. On the other hand, Unity's parties are still underperforming at the polls. Poll results in Congressional elections are a good measure of a party's influence and Unity needs to gain an understanding as to why they have so little of it.

Looking at Presidential elections, the outcome looks even more bleak for Unity:



Congressional elections tend to track party membership very closely, but Presidential elections have more chaotic results. My hypothesis is that individual personalities have a significant influence with Presidential elections. Henry Pfieffer (President in October) and Inwegen (President for December) are experienced, yet polarizing figures in the eUS and could explain the boost that AFA gets during those elections. And that boost is significant. Unity candidates didn't win by a comfortable margin in those months.

If my hypothesis is correct, then Unity needs to nominate candidates VERY carefully. The most experienced person might not be the right person to run in this political climate; especially if he's made enemies. Unity might want to select a candidate that is more well liked instead.

Time is an extremely valuable commodity and Unity doesn't have much of it left.

That's free advice!

 

Comments

Ronald Gipper Reagan
Ronald Gipper Reagan Day 1,863, 10:10

Good stuff.

V

Stef40
Stef40 Day 1,863, 10:24

o7

Viarizi
Viarizi Day 1,863, 10:47

nice article but AFA is not the bad wolf lurking behind the bushes, we are the voice of a silent majority, Americans that are afraid to openly oppose the goverment

ligtreb
ligtreb Day 1,863, 10:50

Subbed.

And the AFA is the bad wolf.

John Largo
John Largo Day 1,863, 11:08

good

Hanibal LA
Hanibal LA Day 1,863, 11:39

what Viarizi sad +1


and really good article o/

LongLiveTheElitists
LongLiveTheElitists Day 1,863, 13:18

You need to update your statistics

FirstLaw
FirstLaw Day 1,863, 13:31

@Longlivetheelitists The current stats were pulled early this morning after the votes were finalized. The article represents a snap shot at that time. The stats might have changed since then but it shouldn't impact the analysis significantly.

Norbengo
Norbengo Day 1,863, 16:41

Every tyranny must fall sooner or later and AFA is the long waited revolution.

kavinaugh
kavinaugh Day 1,863, 16:57

norbengo, u got that mixed up when u google translated it from serbhun

Jetsmets
Jetsmets Day 1,863, 17:02

Nice article, subbed.

loftedraptor
loftedraptor Day 1,863, 17:22

Good Luck Candor!

Candor
Candor Day 1,863, 17:25

The "silent" vote. And they cross party lines, because they vote for ideas, not people.

Neither AFA nor Unity offer actual "unity". They both offer many more months of a divided nation, and a divided nations power. And LOUDLY so.

Some prefer that route. No one prefers compromise. Understandable, if destructive.

I'm offering a coalition government, and the best we'll ever see of "unity" between factions.

Consensus governance isn't appeasement, it's an acknowledgement of the reality of our nations situation and the way forward.

Tomas Salazar
Tomas Salazar Day 1,863, 17:29

v

Captain Salty Kushskins
Captain Salty Kushskins Day 1,863, 17:53

Great article. The AFA could very well be characterized as destructive, but destruction is the purest form of creation.

I think they draw many protest votes against the other parties in the "Unity" camp because they don't like the way this country has been heading this past year. There were a great many divisions before the emergence of the AFA, and I think now that the AFA is here and powerful, it's given a voice to many people who were previously disaffected and didn't know what to do about it.

Bia Pandora
Bia Pandora Day 1,863, 18:55

"Unity might want to select a candidate that is more well liked instead."

Bingo.

Or as I like to call it, the candidate that would have won in a fair election.

5am Saint
5am Saint Day 1,863, 19:26

I have to be honest, I expected AFA to have way more than 33% this month because everyone was busy with christmas. To my surprise, AFA barely passed the 34%. Who knows? Maybe next month they won't get the same percent.

sigfriedHzzz
sigfriedHzzz Day 1,863, 20:21

good

Thedillpickl
Thedillpickl Day 1,863, 22:39

I openly oppose the govt. when they do something destructive like some months ago with our FA. I am not a coward that must hide in the shadows as AFA supporters do. Everyone knows that I fought to defend Canada's boarders when the US invaded them. I even changed the MU's name to Pickle's exPatriates. I was called traitor & terrorist. (When they proved to be asshats and rejected peace, attacking US soil I quickly changed my mind.) I pissed off several 'important' people by speaking my mind regarding our alliances and the treatment of former allies.

So what of an ass like me then? Hmm... Congress Whip for the last 3 (or is it 4?) terms of Congress, Ambassador to the Swiss people and freshly elected to Congress (for the 5th time). No censure. No restrictions. No objections.

Wanna know why? Because I'm honestly expressing my opinions and attempting change from the inside. I don't try to overthrow something that already works. I seek to mend and repair. If the roof leaks you do not burn down a barn, you fix the damned roof!

Support what is good, change what is not. Be fair minded and open. Accept that not everyone views things the way you do. If they will not change than that's the way it is.

Civil  Anarchy
Civil Anarchy Day 1,863, 23:39

I think the reason that the AFA brings in more than it's party totals in congressionals, as opposed to the Unity parties, lies in two main factors.
1. The EAU and Friendship & Honor parties primarily vote AFA, since they're basically extensions anyway, and...
2. The AFA is a newer party, and therefore has less inactive accounts. The USWP and AMP specifically have a large number of inactive accounts that boost the total number of the party, but obviously don't vote. The Federalist boom accounts for their share, and the WTP has a lot of new players, so they're not as affected by this. However, I think this accounts for the disparity in crossing lines. In fact, I don't think the AFA does actually cross any specific party lines.

Overall, Unity is far from done. But the fact that the majority of Unity, with the exception of AMP, have stabilized in number, and even started increasing in the sense of the Feds and WTP, bode well for the future. Only January will tell, but I think the PTO is losing momentum.

Artela
Artela Day 1,864, 00:44

Viarizi: would that "silent majority" be people like you who are in non-allied foreign MUs perhaps?
LOL

Tiamati
Tiamati Day 1,864, 03:15

AFA has little to do with any majority, let alone a non-existent 'siilent' majority of EAmericans whom they claim to represent; alas the core parties of our eAmerican unity government represent a small core of elitists backed by their zombie supporters.

After having sown the political winds for so many months perhaps its fitting for the elitists to endure this current political whirlwind.

Pusi mi kurac Day 1,864, 03:35

Comment deleted

Drew Blood
Drew Blood Day 1,864, 03:42

Bia Pandora
'Unity might want to select a candidate that is more well liked instead.'

Bingo.

Or as I like to call it, the candidate that would have won in a fair election.' x2

Civil Anarchy
'The USWP and AMP specifically have a large number of inactive accounts that boost the total number of the party, but obviously don't vote.'

After reading the thread What's this about forum admins/someone asking for help from retired players? I find statements like this naive and total BS. You can not point to one party with claims of cheating when the 'Unity' parties do exactly the same thing.

 
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