Join the new world

I've held off from writing any articles during this war for a variety of reasons; I didn't want to contradict or even distract from the citizen orders, and I figured that since I wouldn't be writing about the immediate issues surrounding the war, my column would be unlikely to see a wide readership anyway. That said, I think it's time to pause and see what has brought us to our present situation, try to really assess where we are, and then offer some thoughts on what might lie ahead.

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

The eternal question. Leaving metaphysics aside, there are still a variety of "root causes" for our present predicament, and they all have some claim to veracity. Certainly we didn't recognize that, with the withdrawal of Romania from the global scene, we were the largest target on PEACE's radar. Our planning and national discussion didn't reflect the likelihood of an imminent attack.

Secondly, we didn't close any of our active wars, making it easier for PEACE to attack us on our home territory with their alliance intact.

Third, we didn't place our infrastructure in a fashion that is best designed to repel attacks or deal with the loss of regions.

Fourth, and perhaps most significantly, we - even those of us who claim to be rational game-mechanic-driven players - let our real life biases leak into our in-game perceptions. An invasion of mainland America? Unthinkable. Ultimately I think this hubris, not any tactical or infrastructural errors, will be the conclusion history reaches about how we came to be here. We believed ourselves to be invincible and didn't recognize Indonesia or Hungary for the equal or superior forces they represented.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Well, at last count we're in possession of about 1/3 of our original territory, we've lost some allies and had others weakened, we're faced with rising food prices as our grain regions were taken, and we're shedding land at a 1-2 state per day rate. We're losing.

but...

We still control more territories than most other nations in this game, have the third largest population of any nation, have some of the strongest and most adept military units, and command an impressive array of alliances that can go toe to toe with the combined might of the largest and second largest nations in this game. We're a force to be reckoned with.

How can we reconcile these two wildly divergent but still accurate pictures? I'm not certain but my suspicion is that we're approaching some sort of equilibrium point. As we grow more compact and yet still gain citizens the cost to continue the assault on the eastern seaboard rises even as our defensive capability grows. I suspect sooner or later we'll stop losing territory and settle into a period of stability at a reduced size.

WHAT THEN?

This could go a number of different directions. There's always the chance that things come completely apart and we're totally occupied. I think that's unlikely but it would be a disaster.

We also might see PEACE screw up, not keep using the poorly designed initiative strategy, and allow us to go on a successful offensive. This would be nice, but counting on your enemies to screw up isn't a wise or successful practice.

Ultimately I believe we're going to have to pursue diplomatic solutions that will not be acceptable to some of our citizens, even some of our oldest and most respected statesmen. However, as I see it, we're not going to be in control of California in the short, or even medium term. Indonesia has a large buffer area, has moved thousands of citizens to California and placed a Q5 hospital and a Q5 defense system there.

I believe our immediate goal should be to craft a functional and defensible nation consisting largely of our territory east of the Mississippi. Once we have that stable and defensible foundation, then we can look toward the re-capture of our lost territory.

I firmly believe we'll ring in the new year in possession of California. We may even celebrate Thanksgiving in LA. Halloween in Salt Lake? Maybe so.

At the end of the day we - as a nation - made mistakes and we're going to have to live with the consequences. I do believe we'll regain our lost land, but I don't think it will be soon, cheap, or easy, and we need to be practical and realistic about that.

However, if we learn from our errors, work with our allies, recruit more friends and acquaintances from real life, and follow our orders we will restore this nation.

As always, I welcome your comments and will respond to each of them.