Prediction: CoT Will Be Dead By September

Day 2,015, 06:14 • Published in Ireland Ireland • by Arjay Phoenician III

Let me preface this by saying I hope the two major world alliances, Circle of Trust (CoT) and The World Is Ours (TWO), burn down. I have no rooting interest. Unlike the majority of the world, I could care less which alliance can whoop up on the other. I am a spectator, completely neutral on the subject, and as such, I get to enjoy the show for what it is.

Having said that, I believe CoT’s days are numbered. I’ll be surprised if they remain intact through the summer. My guess is, they’ll start fracturing by the end of July, on their last legs in August, and be tossed upon the same heap of failed alliances that you’ll find PEACE and ATLANTIS by September 15th.



This prognostication came to me when the President of the eUnited States, Artela, published her bellicose declaration, promising to punish Serbia for their recent semi-successful PTO attempts. You can read it for yourself at http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-potus-important-time-for-war--2267224/1/20. It was as brazen a call to arms as you’ll ever see in this world, and if the US truly commits itself completely to the destruction of all things Serbian, they will doom CoT.

I say that because, on a day when the US’s focus isn’t completely focused on kicking the crap out of a single enemy, they gladly send their forces throughout the alliance to fight for other countries. Without much to fight for, they saw no problem sending their forces to Paraguay or Mexico or Moldova. If Artela is to be believed, and the US is going to commit their forces to the Serbian operation, these countries that lived off American largesse are going to be hurting for help. Truly, if the US is able to convince the powers that be in CoT that their campaign is worth the alliance committing all resources, these smaller countries are screwed. Even the trite bumper-sticker slogan, WE FIGHT FOR OUR ALLIES, will be ripped away for the sake of taking the fight to Serbia, and thus, TWO.



When superalliances collide, one ultimately is defeated and dissolves. From my observations, it tends to be the aggressor, which will be CoT. Serbia is certainly the instigator, the mosquito that crawled all over the US’s arm until it finally found a vein to suck into, but they and TWO will be in the defense on this one. It’s CoT that has to plan, and if the US is truly going to get itself into Eastern Europe so they themselves can squish their enemy underfoot, they’re going to have to REALLY extend themselves. They’ve done this before, they’ve crossed the Pacific to control iron-high regions in India and China. It’s not hard, they’ll region-hop through Eastern Canada and into Scotland, where they’ll ram through the UK and Polish-occupied Europe. Doing so, however, will take an ENORMOUS amount of gold, weapons, and above all, goodwill from within the alliance. Such an undertaking will no doubt strain logistics.

By the time they reach Serbia (which I’m sure other member nations of CoT will have been softening up for the American death blow), not only they will be exhausted, but so will the rest of the alliance. These countries that relied so heavily on American generosity will have had to return the favor, and odds are it will cost them. Whatever foreign regions they may have held will be gone via RW because they will have been coerced to send their forces to the American campaign.

That’s where the true test of the alliance will come. Are the lesser members of the alliance, especially those nowhere near the Road to Serbia, going to be committed to their American ally long enough to see it through? Or are they going to eventually realize the cost of American vengeance is too great and scale back the help, or cut it off altogether? Truly, are other countries truly going to give up their own empire for the “greater good”?

I read the CoT Charter this morning and stumbled upon Amendment #1. I call it The Supremacy Amendment. Clearly state😛

All member states agree to this Charter and its supremacy over their national constitutions or army regulations.

Be assured that at the first sign a member of the alliance starts having second thoughts about committing their military and economic power to the American cause, someone from the US is going to wave that clause in their face and remind them they HAVE to do it. The members of CoT all signed their sovereignty away to the alliance bureaucracy. That means, if CoT commits to the American campaign (and they will, I’m sure the US sees the CoT as THEIR alliance, and who the hell are New Zealand and Peru to say no), if kicking the snot out of Serbia is now the singular goal of the CoT, the alliance will dictate to every other country where their armies and gold go. Under the Supremacy Amendment, country presidents and legislatures are worthless and impotent, mere clerks carrying our alliance orders.

I strongly doubt the member nations will allow themselves to be so meek. When these countries are attacked by their neighbors, when they can’t count of America to bail them out, when they can’t use their own resources because they’ve been committed to the alliance, you’re going to see some pissed off presidents reasserting their nations’ status. They’re going to raise holy hell.

The Supremacy Amendment is going to be a dealbreaker for several countries therein, if not most.

The US needs to deeply consider what it’s about to do. Instead of being the military sugardaddy for the underlings of the alliance, they’re going to insist everyone get on board with them and tow their line all the way to Serbia. Enthusiasm will be high at first, but reality will set in quick, and when the lesser countries start to suffer, when they start losing their foreign regions and they’re being commanded by alliance bureaucrats, national dignity will eventually rise. When that happens, when the individual nations start seriously weighing their commitment to the American war versus their suffering because of it, directly and indirectly, the alliance will fracture.

Don’t tell me it won’t, because it’s happened before, exactly like that. The best example I can give is the summer of 2009, when PEACE was carving up the United States over and over again. Does anyone remember 8,000 Americans cramming into Florida because that was their final sanctuary, the anticipation for what would have been the greatest single battle this world will ever see, and the deflation when then-president Emerick pulled off the miracle that not only made the battle unnecessary, but pushed PEACE back, and back, and back, until they started to fracture? I believe the PEACE offensive began in late June or July; after the Florida miracle, they began to weaken, and by November, the unthinkable happene😛 for all their strength and guile, PEACE broke up.

[IMG]http://wiki.erepublik.com/images/3/3e/P4_moustache.JPG[/IMG]

Something similar happened recently in the British Isles. Argentina had wiped the UK, and Ireland was reaping the rewards of having a singularly strong ally at her side. Then, out of the blue, very suddenly, Argentina was gone. Wiped themselves. Ireland was without their ally, and the UK took immediate advantage. Irishmen know the rest of that story.



So go ahead, CoT. Shake your pom-poms. Cheer your little hearts out. Rattle your sabers and beat your drums. War is coming with the dawn. Enjoy patting yourselves on the back now, because the camaraderie won’t last long. The US’s crusade to vanquish Serbia will test how committed its constituents truly are. It was fun playing alliance when nothing was at stake, smaller countries could fight their neighbors and get away with it because the US had nothing better to do than be a good ally. Now that America is pissed off and looking to kick some ass, the rest of CoT had better prepare themselves for a long campaign, one that will exhaust their resources, their gold, and their patience.

I just don’t think CoT will survive America’s war on Serbia, and in six weeks the member nations will be at each other’s throats.

Then the alliance will fracture, collapse, and die.