Player Retention Study pt2

Day 841, 17:43 • Published in USA USA • by system0101
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It's early, I wasn't going to publish this for another couple weeks, but it's interesting enough to get it out. I've went through my control group (the only one I've checked so far), and some of the trends are clear enough to start making hypotheses. For those who do not know, a hypothesis is a question based on observation that can be tested scientifically. Once a hypothesis is tested and confirmed, it is p much a theory. Remember theory is not fact, it's just a verified hypothesis 😃

So without further ado, here is how much EXP each player in the control group gained in their first day of playing. The almost even amounts were closer than I anticipated.

EDIT: Sorry for any confusion, these players are 14 or 15 days old today, and were born in eAmerican occupied regions. Read the first article for more info.


In addition, here is the current wellness breakdown of the control group, G1.
[img]http://i44.tinypic.com/2eohzyd.png G1 by Wellness[/img]

Now the 35-70 wellness group is deceptive. A majority of these guys are between 35 and 45, and are likely on the way to eDeath. I would venture a guess that only a third of the players in that group are going to have a chance at making it. In addition, only about 10% (41 out of 414) are healthy and on their way to being productive players. This is approximately where I thought the control numbers would be, though on the low side. For the record, my guess was in the 10-15% range. A significant minority of these active players have moved away from the eUS.

Let's take a look at the wellness breakdown by EXP group.




A couple things really pop out. Literally none of the 0-5 EXP group is in the 70+ range today. This is my first hypothesis, that players who gain 5 or less EXP on their first day are essentially lost, and can be excluded from broad-spectrum assistance.

The other thing that pops out is that even among the 10-13 first-day EXP group, only ~22% are at 70+ wellness two weeks later. This is something that I hope will improve with the other groups.

Now, to a hot button issue, do hospitals in a players' native region help with retention? Initial data is mixed. Look at these two charts.



Yes, hospitals help with retention. This could partially be due to the fact that we have long directed new players on external sites to move to Florida and California, thus they may naturally get more active players who are willing to learn.

As you can see the retention rate between players born in hospital states is almost double the rate of players born in wasteland states. Though it's true that the hospital state retention rate is still abysmal. I have not concluded if this difference is statistically significant, but it is something I'll keep an eye on. For now I'll say that players born in a hospital region have a higher percentage chance of becoming active players, but that percentage change is IMO not enough to support dissention from the fortress strategy to place more hospitals.

HERE is Population Totals by Region across the entire study. This will get a lot more use later, but for now feel free to check it out.

You will likely see another piece of this study get published in a week from now. I wouldn't expect it sooner.