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On the 29th of December, Phoenix collapsed. The signs that a shift in alliances was coming had been seen for a few days, with Brazil withdrawing from Phoenix, the formation of the new PANAM alliance, and perceived instability in EDEN. Yesterday, Serbia and Hungary withdrew from the alliance, quickly followed by Turkey. This article seeks, through interviews with the Phoenix Command, to find out what exactly what happened and why, and to trying and make some sense of the situation.

This first interview is with IAIN KEERS. He requested I was brief.



The London Inquirer: At this point in time, does Phoenix still exist?
Iain Keers: Officially yes, in reality, no

TLI: You are still Secretary –General of Phoenix, correct?
IK: technically I am still SG by default, though my term ended a week ago.

TLI: Where you aware that Serbia, Hungary and Turkey were about to pull out?
IK: It seemed likely that both alliances would break up due to rule changes which forced large countries into a near-constant state of war with their neighbours. This made defending small countries impossible and meant that large countries were also largely unsupported. We were aware that both alliances were quickly becoming friendships rather than military groups.

TLI: What alliances do you expect to see formed in coming weeks?
IK: I don't expect alliances to form in the same way they did before, however I think some friendships (especially in East Europe) exist because of necessity: for example Romania+Croatia will always be allied, and Romania will always fight Hungary, and Croatia Serbia. So Serbia, Hungary and Poland look like they'll form the core members of a new bloc. USA and Brazil will form the core of another bloc, with maybe a couple of peripheries like Argentina and France perhaps.

TLI: Who should the eUK be looking to ally themselves with, based on your experience in Phoenix command?
IK: Having been in two major alliance collapses, the best thing for us to do now is maintain relations with our friends from Phoenix, open communications with other countries interested in our friendship, and simply wait to see what solidifies. It would be a disaster for us to commit to the wrong choice as a knee-jerk reaction, and often these things take at least a week to work themselves out....After ATLANTIS collapsed in May [2009], it took us over 2 months to find PEACE

TLI: You say you "don't expect alliances to form in the same way they did before". Does this mean we can expect a very different game of eRepublik? Or what will be the change in alliance structures?
IK: Well, traditionally how an alliance used to work is this: each alliance would have 10-15 members. At any one time, 1-4 of them would be involved in a war. All of the armies of each alliance would struggle for control or supremacy in those wars, and the job of the SG was to marshal troops from various countries and then focus them into the battles where they were needed at that time. What has changed is that now all of the major powers are at war. Those countries will therefore be fighting for themselves forever. Small countries will not be defensible. Large countries will have no motive to defend them. So any alliances which form will be mainly between large countries with common opponents. Small countries might end up being part of the big groups later (it happened the last 2 times) but there isn't a massively good reason for it to happen strategically.

TLI: Will you be officially abolishing Phoenix in the next few days?
IK: No, there is no official position; there is no way to officially end an alliance. It is a living thing, and like PEACE and ATLANTIS before it, when PHX died it needed no announcement or formal end, and to do so would be a mistake in my opinion

TLI: Thankyou, and goodnight


My next interview was with another former Prime Minister, MR WOLDY. This was the longest of the interviews, and has been edited for length.



The London Inquirer: Hello Mr Woldy
Mr. Woldy: Hello, Hardy

TLI: What is, or perhaps was, your position in Phoenix?
MW: My positions is heading up the DIFA, which stands for Department of Internal and Foreign Affairs; basically MoFA dealing with region negotiations or general disgruntlements.

TLI: The obvious question, which most eUKers will be wondering is ”Why have Serbia and Hungary left Phoenix?”
MW: Well there are quite a few reasons. Most significantly, I feel are the following: One being the new war module rules, specifically, free wars and auto-attacks. Secondly is the obvious shift in the balance of power; Brazil leaving PHX, the creation of PANAM and the breakdown of Eden symbolised in the refusal of a Polak-Romanian MPP, which has left lots of countries wondering what will be going on these next few months, and to a large country, who can make a difference, you want to be able to quickly join a side which has the apparent advantage, or upperhand. Everyone knows that alliance wise, things were going to be changing. The big countries obviously have more appeal to any new alliance makers, and by leaving they effectively say we are open to new things, make us an offer. So in a way it is natural for them to pull out, and see what they can get out of the shifts in the balance of power.

TLI: Do you know of any offers being made by alliances then?
MW: Well. Hungary and Poland consider themselves great RL friends, and always question why they shouldn't be RL allies - Which admittedly is probably hard for UK'ers to grasp, seeing as we kinda ditched RL bonds last time this kinda stuff happened ^__^
PANAM has offered spaces to France and Spain, both unsurprising. However I think again Spain and France will see what other offers appear, which is also what I guess Serbia will be doing.

TLI: Was this split unavoidable, in your opinion?
MW: Well, after Brazil left and especially after PANAM was announced...It is again to do with a shift of Power, and the big guns often want to make sure they are on the right side. The other thing to consider is how, dare I say it, bored people have been getting, and they look for new things to do. What I'm trying to say is in this game nothing lasts forever, people either get annoyed or bored, and once a large shift in power occurs everyone wants to make sure they get a good deal out of it 😁

TLI: Where would you, personally, prefer to see the United Kingdom allied with?
MW: Mainly, France, Germany, Serbia and the Netherlands, followed by Russia and Indonesia as 'foundation' countries, but that is a somewhat utopian view. There are also old enemies we could choose to include. It seems that Scandinavian countries have been left out of any current talks, and if Poland doesn't want them we could even consider talks with them. I would for the time being focus on France, and try to get some guarantees from Serbia.
We should open the idea of a Euro alliance, and build on that. Obviously countries such as Poland (and ergo, Hungary also) may be out of the question. There are however, many exciting opportunities that arise should we consider entering a Euro alliance.

TLI: So what is the greatest external threat to the eUK? The Americans? The Poles?
MW: I somewhat doubt that PANAM's description as a defensive alliance AND Brazil's membership mean that we will see trouble from the USA, UNLESS they decide to take the apparent opportunity to invade us for kicks. If they did it wouldn't be a PANAM war so much as a USA one. But if that did happen, I can say with confidence that Serbia would back us anyway.
As for the Polaks... Obviously they have stomped Germany, but are they interested in getting one over on the eUK? They may be. They don't seem to like France either. I would say they are more of a risk to us than the States, but ironically also pose as the main factor to unifying an opposition against themselves

TLI: Do you have any advice to the incoming and outgoing Prime Ministers?
MW: To get a Euro alliance in the works, to secure our eastern borders, and not to lose France to the yanks

TLI: Do you think this is a genuine paradigm shift in international relations, or just a slight reshuffle of bloc membership?
Not necessarily international relations. For example, I see the possibility of two power blocks building around Poland-Hungary, and possibly PANAM, with a third alliance in the mix which is aligned to one of the previous two. It may end up the case that PANAM is the 'third' alliance, but we can be fairly certain Poland-Hungary will be a power block. A lot rests on where Serbia goes, and we can be fairly sure it will be where Romania/Croatia don't go
It will be more of a power shift than a relations shift, and we may see 3/4 alliances (more likely 3). In a way smaller alliances is what many people, including myself have longed to see

TLI: Why?
MW: Well you need to consider what some of the stronger countries will do. Poland and Hungary will be the foundations of a new team, but who will join them? Romania won't, Hungary don't like them. Croatia is on OK-ish terms, but it seems to me that Poland and Hungary already have Serbia in mind - the fact that Hungary and Serbia left together implies they have already been in talks. In which case, Croatian talks may be kept at length until Serbia makes its mind. And let’s be honest, who wouldn't be tempted by a Hungarian-Polish alliance. I don't think we could blame Serbia for exploring the idea.
The next thing to consider is what PANAM want. Now I don't know it as a fact, but to my knowledge Romania/Croatia haven't been approached yet, nor have China. It seems they are trying to stick to the 'regional' idea, and are only really poaching medium/large sized power bases in western Europe, i.e. France and Spain. Russia and Indo are interesting ones, I don't see either ending up anything to do with PANAM and may not be approached by the Polish-Hungarian bloc
Now, the possibility of a third alliance arises in Europe, but the issue is, everyone wants to end up on a winning side. If France and Spain don't go to PANAM, there is a very real possibility that significant power block can be formed in Europe, but it would depend on countries such as Russia and France are OK with working with Croatia and Romania. Which again, I feel there is a fair chance at. If that did happen, it would be likely that PANAM would be the 'third' alliance shadowed by two greater power blocs, and that the European bloc and PANAM may end up working together in order to resist Polish advances.
Alternatively, Spain and France may go to PANAM, and Croatia and Romania may also apply to join. In which case whatever European bloc that forms with Russia and Indo would be the third power
This is ofc all hypothetically based on a Serbia-Hungary-Poland bloc. That’s just me extrapolating, but I think we can idealistically hope for a large Euro alliance that includes the mediocre powerhouses Europe has. But as I say, a lot depends on where France and Spain go, and what happens with Croatia/Romania. A lot more is dependent on what Serbia decides to do, and some people already think they are going to join the Polaks and Huns.

TLI: Has the UK been approached by any powers?
MW: I am currently but a mere apprentice in the eUK MoFA, it may please you to know I have been invited in on our discussions though. To my knowledge, we are in talks with our immediate allies,but haven't been approached by any 'major' powers, even though we are good friends with Serbia, you have to keep in mind that they haven't yet committed themselves to an alliance talk.

TLI: Just a last few questions. Are there any countries which the UK has formerly found itself opposed to who you would like to see this opportunity used to reconcile with? And conversely, are there any countries you are happy to get out of an alliance with?

MW: Hehe, the second part will be fun.
When you think of reconciliation, or even new friendships, people often neglect to think of the other side of the coin: do they want to reconcile with us? For that reason I feel PANAM is out of the question for the eUK. Even if we did want to side with the eUS, would they want to side with us? Imo, the outcome is somewhat bleak, and as I imagine whatever arrangements come out of the alliance discussions over the next few weeks will produce a Poland vs world scenario we can maintain the brazil MPP anyway, we don't even need to consider it
Personally, for border reasons, and because a few of them are cool, I feel the eUK could perhaps seek reconciliation with Sweden,and depending on whether or not they choose PANAM, Spain. You have to keep in mind though, that the Swedes will probably cling to Eden. Well, I guess so anyway.
I also think Ireland may seek reconciliation with us, as they didn't join Eden and they no longer have Brolliance. I wouldn't be opposed to that on the grounds that we need all the help we can get, and again, borders.
On a reconciliation note it is interesting to look at Spain and France, who have been asked about PANAM; these guys fight a lot, but if they are in such talks perhaps they have seen the need for reconciliation? Or at least they are open minded about it. In which case Spains involvement in a euro-alliance seems more likely.
Getting out of an alliance though... Well immediately one country comes to mind.

TLI: ...
MW: I was involved in the writing of the PHX charter, since its creation I have served as deputy SG many times, DIFA about 3 or 4, and Secretary General. I have had access pretty much over PHX's lifetime. Countries always seem to have their ups and downs, but one always seemed pretty tricky to deal with, and it is Hungary. It may interest anyone who will be in discussions with them, but one of my fondest memories was of diplomats from Hungary leaving discussions in an apparent rage, hoping that the opposing side would make concessions. In one particular discussion it ceased working after the 4th or 5th rage-leave.
I have always however found them pretty tricky to work with, or at times work around and I believe they are the cause a great deal of edrama once want they want something.

TLI: Who is it that Serbia and Hungary were sick of defending (in their eyes)?
MW: I don't think they had anyone specific in mind, Hungary are somewhat notoriously selfish tbh

TLI: I think I will wrap this up now, as I want to go to bed. Do you have any closing remarks?
MW: FUCK YEH, EUROPE. In defiance of St Krems

TLI: Thank you Mr Woldy, and goodnight!
MW: Goodnight! o/


Finally, an interview with the Iron Lady herself, MARGARET H THATCHER


Couldn’t get the actual image, oh well

The London Inquirer: Hello Thatcher
MHT: Hello

TLI: What was your position in Phoenix?
MHT: I was Phoenix Treasurer along with my friend Krikan

TLI😒o did you see the exit of Serbia and Hungary coming?
MHT: I knew Phoenix could not last for very long as it was, and i knew which countries were unhappy, but i didn't specifically see Hungary and Serbia's joint exit coming

TLI: Where do you see the future alliances of erepublik heading?
MHT: There are some superpower countries who will never be on the same side: Hungary/Romania, Serbia/Croatia, turkey/Greece. A combination of 3 of these countries will probably always form the bedrock of any alliance

TLI: Do you think there is any possibility of a multipolar world, or is the game just doomed to a bipolar approach?
MHT: I think that ultimately it will always end up in a bipolar setup. With three big alliances there will come a point where it will suit two alliances to align against the other, and the media will be flooded with flowery rhetoric about how much team A respects team B, and listing the grievances against team C. At which point team AB takes on team C and little has changed

TLI: Indeed. With the elections fast approaching where would you advise the incoming and outgoing governments to look for friends?
MHT: I would advise everyone to remember who their friends really are, but also to keep an open mind. In the UK's case, France has been an exemplary, selfless ally, and whatever happens, to stay with France and to continue to cultivate good relations with them

SUMMARY
For those of you who just though tl;dr at the sight of my marvelous wall of text, and just scrolled straight to the bottom, I will break down what I feel are the key points of the above interviews:

-Phoenix is dead; killed by a change in game mechanics and increasingly fracticious relationships

-Alliances will in future form in a different way to they have in the past

-We are on the market: We love France, and we need Serbia to love us

-Likely alliances look to be :
...PANAM, maybe with Spain and France
...An Eastern alliance built around Poland and Hungary, perhaps with the addition of Serbia
...A Western European bloc
But nobody really knows!

A More detailed analysis of recent events will be included in the next issue of The London Inquirer.

The art of the day is Alexsandr Rodchenko’s portrait of the lovely Lilya Brik. Do you recognise it from a certain album cover, liked by eveyone who isn't a massive pain in the arse? Answers on a the back of a postcard.