Long term politics in eUK
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by Alphabethis
Long term politics.
My personal bet of share of power in eUK will be this:
- TUP-UKRP-ESO: It'll shrink a bit more, till get 20% as a whole. Causes ?
Less perceived dynamism, lack of ideas, "elitism" ( like a couple of
TUP guys in the high spheres of alliances and so on), no supplies,
less support to new players.
- UKPP: new hub of power, upto 30% of votes itself. Causes? Excellent
recruitment. Good dynamism, reliability, "center" like.
- New Era: stagnant or declining, upto 15% of votes. Causes? Dynamic
but in the same area of political spectrum than UKPP and One
vision, good supplies, lots of support.
- ONE VISION: rising, upto 15% of votes. Causes? Excellent supplies
and dynamism.
Let's check this in a couple of months.
In the meantime, more people will leave TUP-ESO ( UKRP is so small
that not many will leave) and there'll be surprises in New Era.
Don Dapper's British army:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-official-british-army-armed-forces-updates-and-dispatch-day-1-878--2191126/1/20
Tatschner's:
http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/prepare-for-the-feast--2190776/1/20
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Comments
Interesting predictions mate. One Vision are wholly reliant on Alfa at the moment but I think he will actually have them on their feet soon enough.
TUP will be there or there abouts for a while yet, while I think UKPP will see a bit more of a surge.
UKRP have a dedicated base so I think ESO should be worried, though the top 5 have been the most competitive in my time in eRep.
Shame to see PCP where they are.
Oh and New Era will cement their position and build from it...cementing the foundations are always the most important step and I believe we have achieved this and proved we are here for the very long haul \o/
TUP (plus other old parties) will probably stay above 30% by virtue of being the centre of the 'opposition'.
UKPPs future will depend on their ability to nurture and bring thru another wave of leaders, not only to support the current crop for the immediate future but to take over and lead the party in the latter part of the year. Failing to do this may result in them becoming TUP-like in appearance - Constant turn-over of same faces, same/unchanging policies, an attitude of 'right to rule by virtue'.
NE need to establish a proper direction as a party as they cease becoming 'New' and definitions will be needed to avoid becoming a 'collection of individuals' as ESO did.
1V is too new to get a read on as its in its 'getting established' phase and as I'm not getting involved in policy it'll be intresting to see who leads us and what direction they take us.
ESO/UKRP's future will depend on the battle for 5th! If UKRP keeps dipping out then they will remain a sub-junction of TUP, If its ESO that drops then they will have to sell their independence in order to congress as failure to congress for a party with no direction means they will be disregarded in national debates and fall back on their core as PCP have done.
Any arriving parties wanting to make it big will need an 'issue' to do so and as the 'divide' is pretty much and all encompassing battle on society then the options are limited to;
1. A party calling for a 'crusade' against a beatable opponent for resources, empire and glory. (only likely if eUK enters one of the usual passive lulls of inactivity i.e TUP get elected 😛 )
2. An off-shoot of TUP or UKPP railing against the failures of their parent party and managing to convince enough active and hot-headed members to leave with them.