Economical analysis, food crysis?
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by Xavinyo
In this article I’d like to analyze eRepublik’s food economy. And try to guess the future trends and the controls.
Backgroun😛
- productivity formula tweaked
- no free fight
- 300 wellness maximum/day
- less durable weapons
- demand>productivity
- skyrocketing wages/prices
If you remember in V1 there was overproduction in weapons, food; the product prices and consecutively the wages were continuously dropping. This trend changed in V2 temporarily, but we could not see it stabilizing due to the short life of V2.
The next huge changes in V1.5 were the down tuned productivity formulas (old players got the short end of it). Right now a worker with guru skill (10) can produce 401 grains, another worker with the same skill can make 22.29 q3 breads from this amount of grains. This means if there are no taxes, and the factory takes no profit from the workers, these two workers can produce 133,74 wellness a day. This means that one player can produce 66 wellness/day which covers roughly 6 hits without weapons/day + wellness for working & training.
However at the moment lot of people are trying to hit all the 300 wellness to gain exp, help their country or allies. But it also means that the food has to be redistributed. And also that players using up their reserves (gold from medals, etc) should buy this food from the so called “two click” people who just produce and do not fight.
The wages are rising daily while the monetary market is more or less stable. The prices of goods are also following the wages. Higher wages at higher product prices means that the value of work increased in comparison of the value of gold (you can buy roughly the same amount of goods from your wages, but you can buy less products from the extra gold).
While in V1 for the overproduction the solution was price drop and value of gold increasing to a psichologycal limit where for 1 gold you could buy so many goodies that people would not sit on their gold anymore it seems in V1.5 the stabilization point is kind of “exhaust point” where gold is so much devaluated that people can’t buy enough goodies from their extra golds and the demand and production is stabilized again (actually demand is cut back by lack of income: wage and gold medals)
The vicious circle:
Globally a country in V1 wanted to make export and sell the extra production abroad. In V1.5 there is shortage on produced goods, thus if we sell them to abroad we get money but since gold is less economic option to fight with (at the moment), it also means the country will have less fighting capability with the smaller food reserves.
Import on the other hand increases fighting capability, decreases the extreme waves in prices depending on importance of battles, decreases the profit of the factories and theoretically increases the fighting capacity of the whole country. This can be of course debated. It depends on how much percent of the “workers” fight and how much percent of the companies are saving up their profit for improving factories or opening new ones.
About changing import taxes. I think we must distinguish between short term and long term effects.
Increasing import tax
- short run:
- less import
- less competition on country market
- higher prices (greed of factories)
- higher wages (golbal job market)
- long run:
- food shortage at important battles
- same import (if high enough prices to world wide global)
- your gold medals worth less products
- you get better if you buy products from abroad for gold
- more import TAX to the state
Decreasing import tax
- short run:
- no changes on import (licences costs a lot!)
- long run:
- more competition on country market
- no food shortage at important battles (buffer from neutral countries)
- controlled prices (companies have to compete world wide)
- lower wages (with lower prices your relative spending power is still better )
- bit more import (your work and gold worth more, you can buy more)
- your gold medal worth more products (but you might give gold to neutral countries)
- you buy products at home cause it is cheaper
- less import TAX to the state
Might seem a lot but in my opinion it is more about the distribution than REAL changes. Higher import tax will distribute the money to the companies and the state, lower import tax will distribute to the people. Only real advantage I see is competition -> which means people cannot be abused by their employers, and may be that at important battles there is no food shortage.
I tried to guess the expected changes, but it might be incomplete and even incorrect, if you have any addition please comment.
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semmi magyar szó? : O
@ADIZS köszönhetően a "kedves" adminoknak az újság rossz helyen jelenik meg, a magyar verzió az új jságomban lesz délután vmikor
de ha máshol adod ki attól még a madzsar subolók is látják : P
[removed]
They should add bilateral and multilateral trade pacts that way you could actually create trading areas instead of setting tariffs against everyone.
future trends: erepublik collapsed in (very) few months.
Crisis.
Since the rules applies to everyone and it is a "closed" economy. There should be a balance point.
Although with cheats and bugs this balance can be altered. Forexample the unlimited grain bug I reported earlier could unbalance the whole economy. If such bugs exists then the balance can't be predicted.
I don't know how the current administration chooses to adhere it's import policy. But there are emergency bailout companies out there, for a fee will export food to the country in times of war. Japan in all honesty does maintain a neutral stance which does keep it from war for some time. But there is a 'golden mean' to the import tax ( that the policy makers come up with in other countries) that you can achieve with heavy number crunching. It'll bring us closer to the equilibrium
Whac, Japanese is not neutral. That's one thing.
Second, food crisis is happening in the every part of the world. Simply, with people using food as the mean to tank, people's consumption of food just cannot match production of foods (I had some people run the calculation and it is not pretty).
To comment for this article, At the current point, it's mainly problem with game mechanics. Skill 10 workers produce only like twice of Skill 1 workers now with new formula. Furthermore, wars are cheaper, so there is great incentive to keep fighting. Unless the formula is tweaked again, or the military module is fixed, or unless everyone runs out of money to wage war, the eworld will continue to produce BELOW the level needed to sustain all of the active players. Well, "impossible" is the wrong word as it is plausible, but solution is ugry and nearly unrealistic.
@Akki There are always differences betewwn countries etc, small ones still it can make advantage or disadvantages. Today you try to keep your production inside the country OR sell for some expensive country and buy from a cheaper contry. However on the long term the balance is always restored quicker or slower but there are people who will move their orgs to a "cheap" country and buy out stuff and it means it won't be cheap anymore. Anyway I wanted to point out that right now import is good and export is bad, also competition is good because the workers cannot be abused by a few select companies, the profit of factories will be slightly less meaning the spending force of players get better.
On the game mechanic thing, if there would be no cheats then we would theoretically go back to something like V1 (after all the xtra reserves and products used up in the following2-3 weeks). Meaning ~5 hit/day barehanded is sustainable at the moment for skill 10 guy. And you can spend up to 300 in one day in an important battle (berserk) if you were making reserves. Meaning it is more flexible than V1 (there you could do 5 + 5 at best).
Unless there will be again changes in the rules, or some uncovered bugs abused in the background the above mentioned balance will be reached.
@Akki I meant that "buffer from neutral countries" the ones which are in other alliance which is not in fight with eJapan and has no important battle at the same time. Although SOL is dieing and with new rules the admins strengthened the two super alliance idea again :/
Anyway when Phoneix is conquered there will be a new playground, EDEN will broke (players will either realize that in this strategy castrated game there is no fun left only clicking for train and work and leave the game or they will create excitement because without challenges the game is boring) and may be some interesting happens with new smaller alliances.
rsd mm rulz xD