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Welcome to the first edition of the D.I.R

What is the D.I.R? D.I.R is the product of Analysts proficient in All Source processing of information to provide an open source intelligence review for national policy makers and general citizenry. The contents of this paper are not official policy. Anyone with background in this kind of work and interested in helping to support D.I.R publications are more then welcome to apply.

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SITUATIONAL UPDATE; NORTH AMERICA

Canada

With the fall of Ontario, Canada has ceased to exist as a nation. Monitoring of Canadian press releases indicates a general desire to continue the fight; however coordination seems limited with various members of the citizenry pushing their ideas and recommendations. This confusion may delay general Canadian evacuation as well as the time it will take for the formation of a Government in Exile. Ontario’s capture by France effectively walls off Hungary from further offensives in North America. Should the enemy offensives stall in the remaining regions of the United States to the south, France may be forced to give up Ontario. While it remains unlikely that such faults will cause any major fracture in the foreseeable future, this action could strain relations and should bear careful observation in the event of political fault lines forming within the PEACE GC community.

United States

Attacks by PEACE GC in the United States have seen a markedly reduced level of intensity, leading to a high degree of certainty that PEACE is viewing the North American campaign as a diversionary method for the moment. Failures to make significant gains further east over the past few days appears to be prompting a strategy shift by PEACE. There is a high probability that the major focus will shift to the Portuguese front in order to Secure Maryland, and Virginia. This action will open up a common border with Asturias, allowing for a “Cats Claw” maneuver by France and Portugal to knock out the last remaining High Iron region currently under allied control. On the Western Front, Russia and Indonesia will continue their offensive, keeping the battle minimally controlled by the Americans until late in the evening for the North American time zone before launching massive tank assaults to end the battle before over time. This strategy will be dependent on American preoccupation with defending Spain.


SITUATIONAL UPDATE; EURASIA



France and Spain

Review of French government media releases (published in French) indicate general orders to the French military to launch a full blown invasion of Spain, which has resulted in the collapse of the Spanish Army in the Navarra province. PEACE has correctly viewed Spain as the lynch pin ally of the United States and it can be stated with near certainty that PEACE GC has marked Spain for annihilation. Once Virginia is taken by Portugal, it is believed with moderate certainty that Portugal will open a Western front, either along the common border, or in Asturias. Indicators of this will be the direction the French army goes following the capture of Navarra. Should they proceed to the Population centers around Madrid, expect a Portuguese attack within the next 24-48 hours following the securing of Virginia. Should France move on Asturias, Portugal may continue its focus on the Eastern United States.

Hungary and Switzerland

Having lost other common borders, Hungary has launched an invasion of Switzerland. Due to insufficient military strength, Switzerland will most likely fall within the next few days.

Greece and Turkey

Turkey has declared war on Greece. This action is most likely ordered by PEACE command rather then the traditional Greek/Turk history of animosity and rivalry (which is vast). D.I.R expects Greece to be able to clear much of the Peloponnesian Peninsula of Turkish control; however the effort will take some time and effectively knocks Greece out of the broader conflict for some time to come. Of additional note, Both Turkey and Greece have been courting Israel to support either side in the campaign. Israel is presently in an uncomfortable position, as both sides are significantly more powerful then they are. At present, Israel remains nominally allied with the FORTIS/EDEN block. However, the outcome of the Turkey/Greece campaign will have serious ramifications for its future security. D.I.R States with moderate certainty that Israel will attempt to remain neutral in the conflict. However, should Turkey prevail against Greece, Israel may be forced to change sides in the war or else face annihilation.

United Kingdom

The betrayal of Canada to PEACE GC by the United Kingdom was sold to the people under the pretext of the United Kingdom being able to receive the spoils of the conquest, and perhaps some new colonies from other PEACE GC controlled regions around the globe. To date, this has not occurred in a satisfactory manner and there has been significant political fall out as consequence. D.I.R does not expect the complaints to cause any major shift in the UK’s political alliance with PEACE due to the fact that the Governments options are now limited, having surrounded nearly the entire eUK with Peace controlled territory and the simple act of betrayal assures little chance of reconciliation barring a major shift of policy. Shifts that will be impossible from both a military and political stand point.

Russia

Reviews of reports in Russian indicate growing discontent at the wars cost, particular due to a shortage of sufficient weapons and rising prices of the same. Additionally, there has been significant political damage to the Russian Presidency due to ministerial appointments that are considered improper, and some calls have been made for impeachment. Regardless of the fate of the present Russian Administration, support for the war will remain high in Russia so long as significant gains are being made in North America. Should reversals occur in the near term, it could very well bring down the Russian Government. For the time being Russia’s primary focus will remain North America, in the hopes of running interference for the offensive in Spain, though that focus could shift if that campaign fails to score significant gains.

Indonesia

Indonesia continues to hold North America as its primary focus. Of important note is the Indonesian emphasis on the State of Maryland. This focus for Maryland as opposed to the states bordering its present North American holdings gives D.I.R a high degree of Confidence that the ultimate objective for the PEACE Campaign is to secure a common border with Asturias in Virginia as this can be the only conceivable strategic benefit for Indonesia in delaying its march to the Atlantic. All other Indonesian offensives outside the East Coast can be perceived as diversionary in nature, and sacrificing East Coast states for western ones may result in a dire military situation for Spain once Portugal launches its Western Attack.

FINAL ANALYSIS

PEACE GC’s maneuvers over the last 24 hours indicate a strategic shift away from North America towards Europe. The severe weakening of the United States has left Peace confident that they can now focus on Europe. The Expense of the Ontario campaign has most likely given Peace pause as it considers moving towards the more heavily defended American East Coast. An Assault of Western Europe will give PEACE time to recuperate funds before it considers a death blow on the United States. A collapse of the EDEN nations and Spain will effectively mean defeat for the United States and this is a fact PEACE is aware of. These factors combine to give D.I.R a high degree of certainty in claiming Western Europe is now PEACE GC’s primary focus. This pause is a mixed blessing for the United States as it means the US can now hold the line better. However, Combat Mechanics will prevent the United States from opening up counter offensives in either Europe or North America for the foreseeable future.