CPM: Money-market (Day 680)
Day 680, 16:29
•
Published in Canada 
•
by
•
by Addy Lawrence
Day 680
The CA$ did not hit 0.0283 as I had predicted, the almighty CA$ is a valuable and consistent currency, our economy is kickin' ass!!!
International Market
The pool of CA$ offers on the market hit its lowest level today, dropping to $2,894.58, a 75.14% drop of $8,750.28. This is the largest single day drop observed to date (study began on Day 662).
On average, these offers are seeking 0.0293 gold per CA$1.00 which up .0002 from yesterday. The CA$ has enjoyed a 10 day run at this level, a remarkable standard of consistency, its almost as if the dollar has chosen to spite me decided not to fluctuate. The marked lack of CA$ offers would suggest that the CA$ is poised to strengthen.
The eCanadian government approved the issue of CA$30,000.00 on Day 663 (seventeen days ago) and and another $40,000.00 on Day 671 (nine days ago). The CA$ dropped 10 basis points after the first approval but it hasn't moved much with the second. The CA$ was trading at .291 gold at the time of the most recent approval, I'm still waiting for the shoe to drop. In hindsight, these issues may have been consistent with the need for cash.
Today I'm changing my recommendation from moving to gold to moving to CA$. There hasn't been a money issue in nine days, offers have nearly completely dried up, and the CA$ has strengthened for two days in a row.
Local Market
The offers of gold totaled 194.96 and is up, 49.96 or 34.5%, over yesterday's 145.00 gold. The steady supply of gold combined with a drop in available CA$ has resulted in a slight drop in the CA$ sought in return for offers of gold, the average offer of gold is CA$36.644, down slightly by $0.039 or 0.1% from yesterday's $35.687.
The gold available to holders of CA$ is flat. With the recent issue of money by the Canadian government ($30,000 on Day 663 and $40,000 on Day 671). There is proportionately more CA$ available than gold. All logical economic reason points to an increase in the number of CA$ per gold in the near future. Or does it? What is the supply of gold? There was just an election, there were 40 Congressmen elected, each earning 5G, that's 200G last week alone. There are about 5,000 people in Canada and about 55% of them are employed, so 2,750 people, each of whom could earn a worker medal in a month, that's 13,750G. Assume 1 in 10 actually earn the medal (not sure if that's reasonable or not). That is nearly 1,400G per month or 47G per day. A little simplistic, but consider that not just Canadians generate gold nor that not just Canadians trade the CA$ on the money market. The supply of G is steady, unchecked and unmeasured; the supply of CA$ is easily found. I think I've latched on too easily to what is easy to measure. Given how consistent the CA$ has been the last 20 days, the money issue of $70,000 must have been consistent with the gold earned and introduced. At a ratio of .0293, CA$70,000 is equal to 2,051 gold. Not completely out of line with the worker medal, it makes sense that the international market would introduce gold too. Sorry about the rambling, having a little epiphany, that's all.
The cheapest offer for 1 gold was CA$35.100.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage represents the opportunity to make money via trading currencies. The opportunity exists if you can find another currency which trades with CA$ or gold, depending on what you are holding, between these two sums. The trick is to find it. If I find one, I'll publish it however they are tough to find and don't last long.
The implied rate on the local market is 0.0281 gold per CA$, calculated as 1G/CA$35.644. The international rate is 0.0293. The arbitrage, or spread between the two, is 0.0012. This tight spread will slow down the trading activity as it is difficult for gold holders to find a third instrument within that spread.
Who's your daddy? Addy's your daddy!!!
The CA$ did not hit 0.0283 as I had predicted, the almighty CA$ is a valuable and consistent currency, our economy is kickin' ass!!!
International Market
The pool of CA$ offers on the market hit its lowest level today, dropping to $2,894.58, a 75.14% drop of $8,750.28. This is the largest single day drop observed to date (study began on Day 662).
On average, these offers are seeking 0.0293 gold per CA$1.00 which up .0002 from yesterday. The CA$ has enjoyed a 10 day run at this level, a remarkable standard of consistency, its almost as if the dollar has chosen to spite me decided not to fluctuate. The marked lack of CA$ offers would suggest that the CA$ is poised to strengthen.
The eCanadian government approved the issue of CA$30,000.00 on Day 663 (seventeen days ago) and and another $40,000.00 on Day 671 (nine days ago). The CA$ dropped 10 basis points after the first approval but it hasn't moved much with the second. The CA$ was trading at .291 gold at the time of the most recent approval, I'm still waiting for the shoe to drop. In hindsight, these issues may have been consistent with the need for cash.
Today I'm changing my recommendation from moving to gold to moving to CA$. There hasn't been a money issue in nine days, offers have nearly completely dried up, and the CA$ has strengthened for two days in a row.
Local Market
The offers of gold totaled 194.96 and is up, 49.96 or 34.5%, over yesterday's 145.00 gold. The steady supply of gold combined with a drop in available CA$ has resulted in a slight drop in the CA$ sought in return for offers of gold, the average offer of gold is CA$36.644, down slightly by $0.039 or 0.1% from yesterday's $35.687.
The gold available to holders of CA$ is flat. With the recent issue of money by the Canadian government ($30,000 on Day 663 and $40,000 on Day 671). There is proportionately more CA$ available than gold. All logical economic reason points to an increase in the number of CA$ per gold in the near future. Or does it? What is the supply of gold? There was just an election, there were 40 Congressmen elected, each earning 5G, that's 200G last week alone. There are about 5,000 people in Canada and about 55% of them are employed, so 2,750 people, each of whom could earn a worker medal in a month, that's 13,750G. Assume 1 in 10 actually earn the medal (not sure if that's reasonable or not). That is nearly 1,400G per month or 47G per day. A little simplistic, but consider that not just Canadians generate gold nor that not just Canadians trade the CA$ on the money market. The supply of G is steady, unchecked and unmeasured; the supply of CA$ is easily found. I think I've latched on too easily to what is easy to measure. Given how consistent the CA$ has been the last 20 days, the money issue of $70,000 must have been consistent with the gold earned and introduced. At a ratio of .0293, CA$70,000 is equal to 2,051 gold. Not completely out of line with the worker medal, it makes sense that the international market would introduce gold too. Sorry about the rambling, having a little epiphany, that's all.
The cheapest offer for 1 gold was CA$35.100.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage represents the opportunity to make money via trading currencies. The opportunity exists if you can find another currency which trades with CA$ or gold, depending on what you are holding, between these two sums. The trick is to find it. If I find one, I'll publish it however they are tough to find and don't last long.
The implied rate on the local market is 0.0281 gold per CA$, calculated as 1G/CA$35.644. The international rate is 0.0293. The arbitrage, or spread between the two, is 0.0012. This tight spread will slow down the trading activity as it is difficult for gold holders to find a third instrument within that spread.
Who's your daddy? Addy's your daddy!!!
Facebook
Twitter
Discord
Comments
Great as always, keep up the good work!