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Opinion Poll, What party would you vote for in the congressional election?
DAL 10.26%
CPF 25.64%
CSD 15.38%
CPP 7.69%
UN 12.82%
Undecided 15.38%
None 12.82%

Vote share % last congressional election
DAL 29.1%
CPF 23.1%
CSD 17.2%
CPP 12.9%
UN 17.7%

Methodology
There were 39 respondents with a 65% response rate. The question was posed to every odd number eCanadian on the Online Now page list, going to the next odd number in cases of orgs, foreigners and repeats. This was done to limit bias by selecting randomly. Three sample periods took place on the 21st, at 1am, 5pm, and 8pm. 20 people were polled each time. A margin of error of plus or minus 15.69% exists 19 times out of 20.


Analysis
I will keep it fairly simple what I believe this poll says and doesn’t say. First off, the small sample size means that the extent that this poll reflects reality may be off. As well, only polling people online was done to increase response rate, as a way to weed out “dead voters”, basically a likely voter model. I only asked who someone might voter for this time, future polls will be more in depth. To the extent that i could in the future account for location and party affiliation in my polling I am currently looking at. However that said, there does seem to be some useful information here, even if such assumptions made may not have the statistics to back them up as much as preferred.


First it is clear that the CPF members are at least enthusiastic for this election, which bodes well for them and poorly for the other parties. I will predict that they should win the congressional elections by a 2-5 seat margin from looking at this poll and my own anecdotal evidence. I think the CSD, UN and CPP such within a seat or two perform as they normally do, with DAL probably losing 2-5 seats. For being the largest party, such low support is quite disconcerting, being their ceiling for support is probably no more than 25%, when they had 29% last election.


As well, it was interesting to see the number of people that replied that they wouldn’t vote or were undecided, which together is more than a 25% of the electorate. This suggests that despite the hyper partisan nature of erepublik politics, the mythical “swing vote” or “independent” does exist. In both congressional and presidential elections, politicians should put more emphasis at winning these voters. Indeed, party politics appears not to be the only factor in determining who one votes for, but personality seems to be perhaps a factor as well.


Conclusion
Finally I would like to say that this poll was done anonymously and that this polling and my analysis in general is meant to be non-partisan. I am indeed a ranking member of the DAL party, however, i have neither am working for them on this or have told them any information outside what has been published publicly. My success as a pollster and election analyst depends on being as non-partisan as possible. Any questions of my methodology or any suggestions to help improve it are much appreciated.