Congressional Election Feb 2015 - Winners will be decided by the GRASS ROOTS CAMPAIGN
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by Harry Dalton
Although I admit that I am a very new player (only joined yesterday!), as a professional political statistician I thought I would apply it to the eRepublik UK.
The CRUCIAL WINNING FACTOR IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH EITHER PARTY CAN DRUM UP GRASS-ROOTS SUPPORT
Both the Unity Party and the UKPP have strong membership figures (120 and 101 respectively), which constitute the vast majority (if not all) of the votes for these parties in most elections, barring the exceptions of Presidential races.
Although UKPP have seen a rise in votes from December to January in the Congressional elections from 62 to 79 (giving them one more seat), the Unity Party has a far more intense political core, with 93 voting in the recent leadership campaign with Leo Balzac taking a decent win with around 45%. In the case of UKPP there were only 64.
Furthermore, the NUMBER of candidates (even the 'joke' ones) for the Unity Party leadership campaign shows political interest in the party is generally high, which is what is crucial for Congressional elections, while in the UKPP party it was a one candidate race.
With a estimated turn out of 80% of UKPP voters voting for their party in the January election (75% for the Unity Party), it is relatively likely that the UKPP has hit their glass ceiling UNLESS they can find significant voter groups outside the party.
With the Unity Party having 40 more members in spare capacity (i.e. didn't vote for the party in January), the win is perhaps likely to be with the Unity Party - the importance of grass-roots politics rather than politics just for those at the top is how the Unity Party will take a win (ALTHOUGH AS NOTED BELOW THE UKPP ARE APPEALING TO GRASS-ROOTS TOO), possibly taking a seat from either the UKPP or the Workers Party (in crisis as they lost 20% of their voters in the space of a month).
HOWEVER, UKPP are making headway in their participation media battle and have realised that the grass-roots battle is key http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/-ukpp-participation-2498965/1/20, so it will make for a close race
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You get paid to do that IRL? Like some people act stupid on this game but 99% know that 120 is bigger than 101 (Bruce Wayne doesn't understand basic principles of English so I don't know what his maths levels are)
I don't think at any point I claim that 120 isn't bigger than 101?
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I'd like to call you a TUP multi, but that would be to state the obvious and I guess this article does that well enough itself.
I apologise - I have edited it since having read the participation campaign that UKPP have put out in response to realising how important this grass-roots campaign will be. Should be a close one.
I guess that's why Dapper was so inactive these days... but on the hand, you do seem literate.
This puzzles me.
Haha cheers, would have hoped an Oxford degree would have helped! Not 100% sure who Dapper is (sorry!) but I'm guessing it wasn't meant as a compliment! 🙂
You have an Oxford degree and he's a professional banking investor.
What a lucky community we are to have such successful people around.
I've been told by various players that there's been a lot of 'multis' doing a similar thing in the past... Apologies if this was the case - I genuinely am just a bored student. 🙂
ain't we all 😉
I thought you were a Swedish cocktail waitress? That's what you told me on IRC :/
Gotta earn dem monies to pay for me studies brah...
DIE YOU MULTI SCUM! DIIIEEEEE
Jokes. If you're legit then best of luck in eRep Squire o7
Haha cheers - didn't realise that there had been such a problem! lol
You've just started playing yesterday. How would you know that...
The number of candidates in the UKPP PP elections was low in an attempt to keep control out of the hands of potentially damaging forces. Hence no "joke" candidates and others rallying behind the two main candidates rather than stand themselves (with one exception).
Grass Roots?
Don't you know it's the middle of winter where grass roots stay underground
Definitely seems like it, but I believe grass roots tend to stay underground irrespective of season 🙂
Interesting analysis. TUP under my leadership will be a juggernaut not seen since the days of yore... If we can set aside our internal squabbles. I look forward to more of your analysis.
Multi http://www.erepublik.com/en/article/harry-dalton-is-fishy-2500227/1/20