Chaos Theory in eRepublik

Day 1,052, 14:16 • Published in USA USA • by The Libertine
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"Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, physics, economics and philosophy studying the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable. This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos."
- Wikipedia



This article isn't exactly about Chaos Theory, because, let's face it, if I was an advanced mathematician that actually understood chaos theory I would be off doing better things right now. Or maybe not. The RL economy still sucks.

When the V2 war module was reverted to the "V1.5" version he have now, there was a thread up on the forums asking for feedback, and while responding I realized something. It was so simple. Hiding in plain sight. The Complexity Paradox.

(Full disclaimer: I'm sure this idea has been discussed, if not already formalized into some sort of theory, already. But if it has, I haven't seen anyone write about if for a while, so here goes.)

The eRep Complexity Paradox

For all games, there is a truth that first must be accepted in order to analyze them any further:

All games are games.

No matter how realistic eRepublik feels, how serious people get about politics or the military, and no matter how little or how much money they have invested into things, eRep is still game. If people hate the game, they can simply stop playing. If people get bored, they can do their best mimesis of the guy who falls on purpose every time in the game Twister, crashing into everyone they can get close enough to on their way down. If people have initiative, they can look to build great empires or legacies using parties, government positions, or the media. If people like getting shiny medals, they can 2-click each day or seek to become a Battle Hero.

The point is, this is a game, and people play it for different reasons.

No one is trapped here. This is not real life. There has to be a reason to keep playing.

Onto the complexity paradox:

In eRepublik, simple structures (or initial conditions) lead to complex strategical planning by citizens (deterministic chaos). However, the more complex the structures get (without simultaneously increasing the enjoyability of interacting with these structures), the less complex the outcome will be. Satisfaction will likely decrease as well, as the ability to contribute to or influence the chaos wanes and predetermined outcomes increasingly become the norm.

V2 proved this. Sure many liked the new war module. But thousands more disliked it and quit the game. No matter how much some people liked playing the V2 war module (and some people are still extremely passionate about it), the fact remains that its complexity was driving people away in droves. And if everyone leaves, there isn't much of a game left to enjoy.

Same thing with the economic module. The jobs switch wasn't all that bad. The thing that really ruined the V2 economic module was small, like the flap of a butterfly's wings. It was the switch to wage per hour. Combined with the fact that workers could choose how many hours to work, business owners no longer could predict the cost of operating a company without minoring in finance or having one of those old calculators with the paper reels built in. This is a game, not a chore. Most of the younger crowd probably logs in to avoid doing RL chores. Hell, all of us do that, in one way or another. The good news is that eRepublik realized this folly and changed the economic module back for the most part. Economies and wages are now beginning to boom (world wide war helps too).

One of my favorite examples of how simplicity leads to complex planning (at an individual level) is the strategic planning and calculations for fighting in V1. Here is an article describing the history of tanking. Here is a very old forum post full of number crunching. Here is an old article describing a program that ran every iteration of actions in order to find the maximizing fights in one day (395,000 possible courses of action, only one could provide the maximum 53 fights in one day). Here is also one article explaining how to fight six times a day without having to spend anything extra. Here was one explaining how to fight 20 times in one battle without gold by using what was referred to as berserk mode. I cannot find an article/post explaining how "tanks" could completely maximize fights/damage in one battle using gold, but you get the picture here. The V1 war module, hated by many for its simplicity, led to vibrant discussion, strategic planning, and community debate.

V2 fighting made in-game war more complex. It made coordination complex. But it made thinking, debating, and learning about the module unnecessary and unfun. V2 economic changes made jobs and companies more realistic, but ended up being more of a hassle than it was fun or useful or profitable.

This game thrives when discussion and debate occurs outside of the game. As long as the initial conditions in eRepublik are kept simple enough, we'll find a way to provide the chaos on our own. And others will begin to register or revive old accounts and join us to be a part of that, as they have in the past.

With some recent changes, I'm glad we seem to be heading in that direction.

So that's the complexity paradox, not really in a nutshell. If you got this far, thanks for reading. 🙂

Best,
CRoy