There is a lot of talk in the media about EDEN vs CoT, that EDEN is collapsing and Ireland must now choose between the entirety of these alliances' aspects.
In reality, this is not the right way to look at it. The fact of the matter is this; Our choice is a lot more simple than that in practical and moral terms.
Ireland's foreign policy is heavily influenced by our three neighbours, and in turn, their relationships with each other. Our survival as a nation depends on their place in the world as much as our own.
Before the US-UK Schism, Ireland was neutral with a friendly relationship with all three. This lead to very little enthusiasm for the game, and a huge need for training wars in order to train up citizens. We lacked a purpose, and despite the insistence of Artaxerxes Pavonis, I can tell you as an ex-MoF of that period, we did not have a thriving economy by the standards of the time. Either way, war with any one of our neighbours would bring a multi-front war with countries many times our size and strength. This may very well be the diplomatic situation we find ourselves in, but neutrality is not an option due to the problems it brings, so the EDEN vs CoT issue springs up.
Except neither of them are a real choice.
Circle of Trust, for all its credentials, is full of countries that are known to do exactly the same thing as the countries in EDEN that people are complaining about so much. Furthermore, despite adding new countries, its damage is not anywhere near that of EDEN, which even a fraction of which is decisive for the defence of the country. We do not know which countries will join, or if our longstanding allies will be among them, while we do know that longstanding enemies are in the alliance. Lastly, being in CoT if the US, Canada and/or the UK aren't is a strategic and diplomatic liability.
EDEN on the other hand seems to be sickly. Certain smaller EDEN countries have been scapegoated (although their own decisions have often helped that process along). Colonial wars in various parts of the world have diminished enthusiasm for supporting the alliance. Furthermore, EDEN is swiftly being distanced from our largest neighbour, the United States, which is possibly an even larger strategic and diplomatic problem for our Atlantic position.
Frankly, it is too early to make an informed choice. We can decide this month, but the circumstances could have changed by the time the next Congress elections have happened, and we could be placed in a very awkward position indeed. At the very least, we should remain in EDEN as long as its damage output remains high and Croatia remains within the alliance.
The decision to leave should be based on the choice of our larger neighbours, particularly the United States. Whatever happens, we cannot hope to oppose them without fatal consequence. While I certainly hope that their position does not place them in opposition to Croatia (and in alliance with the UK), our only other option is to secure good relationships with countries we have been fighting for years who hate many of our current friends. Furthermore, with boredom in the UK at a high, we could see an invasion attempt if we abandon our friends so readily, we need to maintain a deterrent.
We can also afford to wait, with the alliance scene shifting dramatically, we are not the only ones caught on the back foot. We must see how the alliances splinter and then merge. Then and only then can we make a decision about our future, until then, we must keep our friends close.
1. Our neighbours positions are very important, and we need to wait to see what they do before acting.
2. We do not know how the alliances will break up and what countries will be aligned with who, another month or two will give us a better picture.
3. We need to keep our friends close for the moment in order to guarantee some level of security in this chaotic period.
4. Therefore, we should stay in EDEN until we get a clearer picture of what is going on, while engaging in robust diplomacy.
Vote for prudence and good judgment, vote No to leaving EDEN.
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