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Continuing on...

Yesterday I voiced concern about pursuing what I saw as an unconfirmed "2nd tier" alliance without a strategic stronghold near us; after attending a meeting with the nations of the proposed alliance, my opinion is that there is a solid reason to believe this alliance will be founded and all it is currently missing is a name.

The meeting convinced me to further explore the military capability of the proposed alliance in the Serbia v SPoland dipole; Egov4you has recently just came back online, however last night was down, so I used the ranking tables to look at share of damage (so I'll probably do some analysis again). My overall summary is that the proposed alliance will be a vital partner to Sirius if they wish to resist Asteria, however specifically to Ireland, we fall within the area of Sirius's stronghold.

To those still wondering if they voted the right way in the Irish referendum... this article provides some strategic preceptive. My previous article dealt with fundamental attitudes I wished to challenge; namely, putting Ireland first in a world where there are no easy or correct decisions. I encourage voters to read both my articles and the comments - trust yourselves to form your own conclusions. If you feel like you keep changing your mind, then you'll find many Irish citizens had the same problem - I voted in a strong way and many of you shared my concern but come what may, Ireland must push on.



Based on declared information, i.e. line drawn in the sand, the nations separated by "camp" and their share of damage (based on ranking table) is displayed below - Ireland included in Neutral as not to bias:







As I've not used Egov4you so you won't be seeing any pretty maps or how this damage is separated by Division, but it gives a good idea of the "known" situation. However, I do not think it tells the entire story - there is a huge number of neutral countries yet to make a declared stance, but many fall under these categories: 1)formed a consensus, just haven't declared 2) under non-wilful occupation from an alliance member so de facto against them 3) declared 'neutral' but MPPs signed de facto give influence to a specific alliance.




After going through government members' newspaper, MPPs signed and current military situation - I've categorised nations by where their influence will likely be assisting a specific alliance. For example, the likes of Belgium might be pussyfooting again saying their neutral - but their MPP stack is only with Sirius so their influence will assist Sirius by de facto. Obviously not solid, but I have investigated with some zeal, so this isn't wildly inaccurate.







The colour coding is Green = Good position to assist allies, Yellow = Contested but some ability to assist allies, Red = Require ally assistance. Based on my analysis of fronts, the combatants influence output and current situation - Yellow would apply to nations like Spain who might be losing badly in some areas, but quite mobile in others. Green nations like Ireland might not be involved in any direct conflicts, or like Serbia who despite occupying core regions of Croatia, Italy, Bosina, Albania greatly outmatch them in local influence generation. Lastly then, nations like Brazil are coded as Red due to being occupied and outmatched in local influence generation.

I've tired to illustrate that ^ idea of military domination by the map below, blue = Sirius&Bg-Ch-Mkd-etc, red = Asteria&Pro, yellow = contested.



The proposed alliance role in this is that Chile and Mexico are in a prime position to directly intervene in South America - from everything I've considered, perhaps just one of them intervening would make the entire area contested. Given this area makes up the backbone of Sirius's night-time influence (which Asteria is currently strangling), the proposed alliance would be a vital factor in Sirius's European night war.

Members of the proposed alliance are less prominent in Europe, with Asteria nations having strong hold of the Mediterranean - occupying a good many nations of both Sirius and the proposed alliance. On the exception of would-be 3rd alliance member Germany, which with Poland, represent a formidable block. That said, cooperation between Bulgaria, Macedonia and Turkey could see a change in tide in Eastern Europe. Many of Sirius members within the Mediterranean would require substantial support from 'Green' nations to make any sort of comeback, which Sirius by themselves are unlikely to be able to gather.




My final thoughts is that Sirius makes up the bulk of influence, but do not have much room to manoeuvre and are fairly exposed in Europe. Whereas the proposed alliance does not particularly represent a pool of influence, but they have a greater strategic position to hit Asteria where they are weakest.

For Ireland in terms of border security, Sirius still represents the safest route. The proposed alliance would guarantee border security whilst cooperation between Sirius and the alliance was in place, otherwise our borders would be as hostile as Albania's.

That said, the proposed alliance would not be able to secure many regions for their members without the bulk damage of Sirius - but on the flip side, Sirius would have little hope of pushing Asteria back in Europe without the proposed alliance's key interventions. These factors should accumulate to really put emphasis on long term cooperation, meaning Sirius would have to treat the proposed alliance as an equal and not a vassal alliance - or risk internal instability.

My conclusion is that the proposed alliance is a viable option for Ireland from a strategic preceptive, whilst Sirius still represents greater security. My own position is far more torn than before - this is a difficult decision to make, but I urge citizens to really think on it.