[J2M] The Incumbent vs The Messiah (CP Elections)
Day 1,626, 13:00
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Published in Belgium 
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by
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by Medrolke
The Incumbent vs The Messiah
So… elections. That time of the month when we choose which player is going to act as out President for the next 31 days. Although that’s not really true is it? Granted, the amount of support amongst the active (or at least semi-active) population a certain candidate receives is often quite a good indicator, but anyone who’s played this game for a meaningful amount of time knows that it’s the silent majority of two-clickers who really decide the winner, and since your reading this, I can be reasonably sure you’re not one of them.
And this is one of the things I’m going to talk about here.
In the end, it’s not just a candidate’s policies, or reputation, or experience that get him/her elected, as these are things that the majority of the electorate aren’t really all that aware of. The two biggest vote winners are exposure in the media and party endorsements which, although usually received through the above three things, are what’s really important when trying to predict who’s going to win.
The way I see it, there are two real candidates in this race (with all due respect to the other two). Zodiarch, with only the support of a 3-member party, shouldn’t be troubling anyone and Wim Vercauteren, although with the nomination of the 53-strong LLC, doesn’t quite have enough in my opinion to get it. Possibly enough for second if the mitte/Bruno voters are particularly one sided on voting day, but that’s about it.
That leaves us with two: the incumbent president going for a second term, and the old political giant who announced her intention to run upon her glorious return from the eUK. Both have some huge advantages over the other in terms of what can convince the 2-click voters and politicians alike to support them, so it should be quite a close race.
Both have a decent voter base available in terms of the parties that have graced them with their nominations, although mitte’s is slightly larger and means she has the added advantage of being placed first on the ballot and both have experience at being a CP and good political credibility, although Bruno’s will be fresher in people’s minds.
The big differences are elsewhere.
Mittekemuis has by a long way been the most visible in campaigning. Remember, since a lot of votes come from people who don’t necessarily read articles let alone consider the points made in them, the simple amount of articles on the front page about them with high vote counts to draw people’s eyes while scrolling through really does have an effect, regardless of their content, and mitte has had several over the past few days.
Bruno, on the other hand has the advantage of familiarity. Although he only has one CM term to his name, people will be much more used to seeing him on ballots, especially in last month’s CP election. Although mitte didn’t completely leave Belgium on the forum, she did in game, and unfortunately for her, that may lead to many people not recognising her.
As well as this, mitte hasn’t gained any advantage out of how she announced her candidature. Although most people who knew her before she left will have generally fond memories of her, the newer people may not be as familiar, and they may not take kindly to her going straight for the top spot. Although I don’t personally have a huge problem with it, so long as she does her job if elected, running for CP as soon as you return somewhere is generally just not done and it may hit a nerve with people who care about it more than I do.
Despite this, no one can deny that she is very good at what she does. Putting your name down as the best person to lead the country when you’ve only just got back may be a bit arrogant in some cases, but she has more of a justification for that than most people. She has proven that she is a capable leader before and I would hope people would value that over the circumstances, but then Bruno is also very capable, so it’s a close call.
In the end, it’s just going to come down to the whims of the masses come tomorrow. I think that whichever of the two wins (assuming it is one of them); we will still have a very good CP so I’m not too worried. I’ve been a non-voter for over a year now, and I personally don’t have enough to break out of that this time around. As for a prediction, I would probably put my money on mitte, purely due to the larger endorsements and greater media presence, but I would not be at all surprised to be proved wrong.
Comment Question:
Thoughts/opinions on my prediction? Do you think I missed something? And who do you think will win? Feel free to post below.
Anyway, thanks for reading. Feel free to vote/subscribe if you liked it (it makes me feel all warm inside
-JJ Medrolke
Side note: I know I still don’t have a new design. Sorry again.
So… elections. That time of the month when we choose which player is going to act as out President for the next 31 days. Although that’s not really true is it? Granted, the amount of support amongst the active (or at least semi-active) population a certain candidate receives is often quite a good indicator, but anyone who’s played this game for a meaningful amount of time knows that it’s the silent majority of two-clickers who really decide the winner, and since your reading this, I can be reasonably sure you’re not one of them.
And this is one of the things I’m going to talk about here.
In the end, it’s not just a candidate’s policies, or reputation, or experience that get him/her elected, as these are things that the majority of the electorate aren’t really all that aware of. The two biggest vote winners are exposure in the media and party endorsements which, although usually received through the above three things, are what’s really important when trying to predict who’s going to win.
The way I see it, there are two real candidates in this race (with all due respect to the other two). Zodiarch, with only the support of a 3-member party, shouldn’t be troubling anyone and Wim Vercauteren, although with the nomination of the 53-strong LLC, doesn’t quite have enough in my opinion to get it. Possibly enough for second if the mitte/Bruno voters are particularly one sided on voting day, but that’s about it.
That leaves us with two: the incumbent president going for a second term, and the old political giant who announced her intention to run upon her glorious return from the eUK. Both have some huge advantages over the other in terms of what can convince the 2-click voters and politicians alike to support them, so it should be quite a close race.
Both have a decent voter base available in terms of the parties that have graced them with their nominations, although mitte’s is slightly larger and means she has the added advantage of being placed first on the ballot and both have experience at being a CP and good political credibility, although Bruno’s will be fresher in people’s minds.
The big differences are elsewhere.
Mittekemuis has by a long way been the most visible in campaigning. Remember, since a lot of votes come from people who don’t necessarily read articles let alone consider the points made in them, the simple amount of articles on the front page about them with high vote counts to draw people’s eyes while scrolling through really does have an effect, regardless of their content, and mitte has had several over the past few days.
Bruno, on the other hand has the advantage of familiarity. Although he only has one CM term to his name, people will be much more used to seeing him on ballots, especially in last month’s CP election. Although mitte didn’t completely leave Belgium on the forum, she did in game, and unfortunately for her, that may lead to many people not recognising her.
As well as this, mitte hasn’t gained any advantage out of how she announced her candidature. Although most people who knew her before she left will have generally fond memories of her, the newer people may not be as familiar, and they may not take kindly to her going straight for the top spot. Although I don’t personally have a huge problem with it, so long as she does her job if elected, running for CP as soon as you return somewhere is generally just not done and it may hit a nerve with people who care about it more than I do.
Despite this, no one can deny that she is very good at what she does. Putting your name down as the best person to lead the country when you’ve only just got back may be a bit arrogant in some cases, but she has more of a justification for that than most people. She has proven that she is a capable leader before and I would hope people would value that over the circumstances, but then Bruno is also very capable, so it’s a close call.
In the end, it’s just going to come down to the whims of the masses come tomorrow. I think that whichever of the two wins (assuming it is one of them); we will still have a very good CP so I’m not too worried. I’ve been a non-voter for over a year now, and I personally don’t have enough to break out of that this time around. As for a prediction, I would probably put my money on mitte, purely due to the larger endorsements and greater media presence, but I would not be at all surprised to be proved wrong.
Comment Question:
Thoughts/opinions on my prediction? Do you think I missed something? And who do you think will win? Feel free to post below.
Anyway, thanks for reading. Feel free to vote/subscribe if you liked it (it makes me feel all warm inside
😃) and I’ll see you next time.
-JJ Medrolke
Side note: I know I still don’t have a new design. Sorry again.
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Comments
Zodiarch will not be able to run as his party is not in the top5 if i'm right.
just what a new citizen needed, tnx
v & s
Voted, and glad to see you writing. This is an interesting analysis. I'm not prepared to make a prediction, either, which is going to make it a very exciting election.
Good prediction.
I'm going to rethink mine now.. (:
voted
Great article Medrolke as expected of course 😉
nice article M thanks 🙂
Great articles about what will really determine this very interesting election!