[eUK] July '14 CP Election Special
Day 2,419, 01:18
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Published in United Kingdom 
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by
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by Neil Lewis
eUK July '14 CP Election Special
I thought I'd analyse the party support of the CP candidates and have a totally unbiased go at predicting the result.
So here are our candidates for CP:
BigAnt
Officially backed by The Unity Party [but, in reality, that's 108 Vendetta plus about 40 TUPers - either imported members or dozy feckers who only see the party-line] and the 3 members of the Progressive Democratic Party.
Total declared support: 151
Prof. J Moriarty
Backed by 78 UK Reform Party, 9 Spammicans and 2 Skatalites
Total support: 89
Rodney Mckay
Backed by 27 Every Single One
Total support: 27
VaultGuy
Officially supported by 66 Worker's Rights Party [until Huey's article] and 1 UK Change Demanded
Total support: 67
UROSZero
Backed by 12 Jack Jockson's party members
Total support: 12
However there are some floating voters:
The "Real" Unity Party: 100
The UK Progression Party: 94
The People's Communist Party: 62
Team Rocket: 40
There's a lot of votes here. If UKPP vote for BigAnt, then Moriarty will need TRUP & PCP votes to win. However, with Angela Williams on his team, BigAnt can probably count on most, if not all, Team Rocket's votes.
Prediction:
BigAnt: 285 (275 - 295)*
Prof. J Moriarty: 251 (241 - 261)*
VaultGuy: 67 (57 - 77)*
Rodney Mckay: 27 (17 - 37)*
UROSZero: 12 (2 - 22)*
[*spread +/- 10 votes]
Ooh, but hang on, WRP are unlikely to vote, in their droves, for VaultGuy! In that case, the result could, and probably should be:
Prof. J Moriarty: 301 (291 - 311)*
BigAnt: 285 (275 - 295)*
Rodney Mckay: 27 (17 - 37)*
VaultGuy: 17 (7 - 27)*
UROSZero: 12 (2 - 22)*
[*spread +/- 10 votes]
Taking Alfagrem's notes on activity as a base and, as I think he's over-egged the TUP support for BA, here's a revised prediction:
Prof. J Moriarty: 224 (204 - 244)*
BigAnt: 188 (168 - 20
VaultGuy: 31
Rodney Mckay: 30
UROSZero: 12 (anything over this is a bonus)
* spread of +/- 20 votes
This could be a very close-run election, not the 70+ lead Alfa's suggesting below.
Called it earlier and have been waiting for the usual denials, but i think this confirms Vendetta's backing of BigAnt:
Suppose their PP was too busy to press the button so BA has to show themulties drones the way to vote.
Written in a totally unbiased way by
Neil Lewis
PS: I wouldn't normally back Moriarty; it's just I hate the BA/AW ticket even more
The now mandatory Leanna Decker GIF drop
I thought I'd analyse the party support of the CP candidates and have a totally unbiased go at predicting the result.
So here are our candidates for CP:
BigAnt
Officially backed by The Unity Party [but, in reality, that's 108 Vendetta plus about 40 TUPers - either imported members or dozy feckers who only see the party-line] and the 3 members of the Progressive Democratic Party.
Total declared support: 151
Prof. J Moriarty
Backed by 78 UK Reform Party, 9 Spammicans and 2 Skatalites
Total support: 89
Rodney Mckay
Backed by 27 Every Single One
Total support: 27
VaultGuy
Officially supported by 66 Worker's Rights Party [until Huey's article] and 1 UK Change Demanded
Total support: 67
UROSZero
Backed by 12 Jack Jockson's party members
Total support: 12
However there are some floating voters:
The "Real" Unity Party: 100
The UK Progression Party: 94
The People's Communist Party: 62
Team Rocket: 40
There's a lot of votes here. If UKPP vote for BigAnt, then Moriarty will need TRUP & PCP votes to win. However, with Angela Williams on his team, BigAnt can probably count on most, if not all, Team Rocket's votes.
Prediction:
BigAnt: 285 (275 - 295)*
Prof. J Moriarty: 251 (241 - 261)*
VaultGuy: 67 (57 - 77)*
Rodney Mckay: 27 (17 - 37)*
UROSZero: 12 (2 - 22)*
[*spread +/- 10 votes]
Ooh, but hang on, WRP are unlikely to vote, in their droves, for VaultGuy! In that case, the result could, and probably should be:
Prof. J Moriarty: 301 (291 - 311)*
BigAnt: 285 (275 - 295)*
Rodney Mckay: 27 (17 - 37)*
VaultGuy: 17 (7 - 27)*
UROSZero: 12 (2 - 22)*
[*spread +/- 10 votes]
UPDATE ... UPDATE ... UPDATE
Taking Alfagrem's notes on activity as a base and, as I think he's over-egged the TUP support for BA, here's a revised prediction:
Prof. J Moriarty: 224 (204 - 244)*
BigAnt: 188 (168 - 20
😎*
VaultGuy: 31
Rodney Mckay: 30
UROSZero: 12 (anything over this is a bonus)
* spread of +/- 20 votes
This could be a very close-run election, not the 70+ lead Alfa's suggesting below.
LATE UPDATE ... LATE UPDATE ... LATE UPDATE
Called it earlier and have been waiting for the usual denials, but i think this confirms Vendetta's backing of BigAnt:
Suppose their PP was too busy to press the button so BA has to show the
Written in a totally unbiased way by
Neil Lewis
PS: I wouldn't normally back Moriarty; it's just I hate the BA/AW ticket even more
The now mandatory Leanna Decker GIF drop
😛
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Will be interesting to see how it all works out.
That's an optimistic prediction for Moriarty, if only...
let's hope AW hasn't brain-washed Team Rocket to back BA
I doubt it, the party did not like AW being vCP for BA and that's why the leadership changed hands and a lot of people left with the leadership.
about PCP.
half will vote BA and half will vote Moriaty, around 40 members will vote.
probably closer to the truth; but, apart from TUP, I was going with an all-or-nothing approach
Yeah, seems you earned nothing Neil about sticking a red head at the bottom of your election articles...
I'll fix that shortly
there
Man of the people \o/
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by your reckoning Prof's already running out of steam after 4 hours voting
if I apply a 2/3rds modifier to my totals it might be closer to the final results .. i'll update with that laters
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PCP going half to BA would be rather a lot, I imagine a couple may... but given the fact he's threatened our party and Winnie came over and gave us all shiz in the feed I'd imagine most PCP will vote Moriarty.
Team Rocket are unofficially still supporting me, as they were meant to before things went tits up about a week and a half ago.
I've also received quite a few messages of support from inside UKPP and WRP, especially after mass-messaging UKPP members, bar of course the ones who I know not to bother with.
Having been a member of ESO in the past, and their party now being called Vote Moriarty, I can reasonably say I have their support.
Likewise I have a lot of support from inside PCP.
I'm optimistic.
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I think (as much as I don't want it too) that BigAnt will win.
Indeed - even BA and V and the Serbs aren't stupid enough not to ensure enough Serbs and friends aren't let in to vote for them
Or create the necessary multi's required before hand
nuthing TUP never used to do with polski's and dead old accounts