[CP] Evaluating alliances and the state of the eRepublik world

Day 1,867, 14:30 • Published in Canada Canada • by Foxfire

In a sea of opinions it is very easy for facts to get lost. There are those that need you to believe their opinion to push their own agenda and if they have to talk until no other opinion can be heard they will do so. Opinions are also by their very nature difficult to quantify and weight.

I have read some very well written articles all month about the future of EDEN, TWO and CoT. Unfortunately all of these were opinion pieces and no one has dug up the cold hard math of it and run the numbers. Until now.

Rank - County - Average Daily Influence - Alliance - MPPs
- 1 - Serbia - 5,013,463,291 - TWO -
- 2 - Poland - 4,796,403,727 - TWO -
- 3 - USA - 3,989,423,015 - Neutral - CoT/neutral
- 4 - Greece - 3,779,795,049 - EDEN -
- 5 - Turkey - 2,952,609,010 - EDEN -
- 6 - Macedonia - 2,808,184,745 - CoT -
- 7 - Bulgaria - 2,696,848,220 - CoT -
- 8 - Romania - 2,581,941,208 - EDEN -
- 9 - Croatia - 2,468,770,785 - EDEN -
- 10 - Hungary - 2,409,538,395 - TWO -
- 11 - Argentina - 1,968,607,464 - EDEN -
- 12 - China - 1,775,686,657 - EDEN -
- 13 - Spain - 1,697,315,138 - TWO -
- 14 - Brazil - 1,554,510,309 - Neutral - CoT/neutral
- 15 - Slovenia - 1,105,388,736 - TWO -
- 16 - Russia - 1,087,262,397 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 17 - Chile - 1,057,648,092 - CoT -
- 18 - Indonesia - 1,018,721,727 - CoT -
- 19 - Taiwan - 782,885,220 - EDEN -
- 20 - France - 614,086,384 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 21 - Portugal - 611,471,003 - EDEN -
- 22 - UK - 603,916,914 - TWO -
- 23 - Ukraine - 584,686,096 - EDEN -
- 24 - Germany - 558,059,071 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 25 - Finland - 554,061,532 - Asgard -
- 26 - Lithuania - 514,943,121 - CoT - Former ABC
- 27 - Sweden - 498,703,004 - Asgard -
- 28 - Canada - 468,576,002 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 29 - Latvia - 395,306,663 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 30 - Colombia - 392,168,609 - EDEN -
- 31 - Italy - 358,012,917 - EDEN -
- 32 - Iran - 339,903,108 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 33 - BiH - 329,114,119 - EDEN -
- 34 - Mexico - 327,818,416 - CoT -
- 35 - Albania - 269,090,583 - EDEN -
- 36 - Estonia - 232,489,170 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 37 - Australia - 223,638,266 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 38 - Moldova - 211,375,487 - CoT -
- 39 - New Zealand - 208,749,171 - CoT -
- 40 - Ireland - 173,572,046 - Neutral - Asgard
- 41 - Venezuela - 166,851,719 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 42 - Thailand - 164,552,745 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 43 - Peru - 163,628,524 - CoT -
- 44 - Paraguay - 163,469,208 - CoT -
- 45 - Cyprus - 161,289,152 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 46 - India - 154,586,154 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 47 - Belarus - 152,542,422 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 48 - Israel - 138,483,882 - EDEN -
- 49 - Philippines - 131,602,247 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 50 - Slovakia - 129,864,192 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 51 - Netherlands - 129,349,179 - EDEN -
- 52 - Japan - 116,087,155 - CoT -
- 53 - Montenegro - 103,246,013 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 54 - Norway - 101,906,492 - EDEN -
- 55 - South Africa - 99,560,101 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 56 - Austria - 97,872,022 - Neutral - (Pro-CoT MPPs)
- 57 - South Korea - 92,793,876 - CoT -
- 58 - Pakistan - 86,228,995 - Neutral - (Pro-CoT MPPs)
- 59 - North Korea - 83,140,941 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 60 - Belgium - 80,808,760 - CoT -
- 61 - Switzerland - 79,149,724 - CoT -
- 62 - Egypt - 60,138,816 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 63 - Denmark - 58,421,275 - Neutral - No allies
- 64 - Czech Republic - 56,370,572 - Neutral - No allies
- 65 - Uruguay - 52,437,262 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 66 - Singapore - 48,184,334 - Neutral - (Pro-EDEN MPPs)
- 67 - UAE - 47,869,182 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)
- 68 - Saudi Arabia - 40,344,231 - Neutral - No allies
- 69 - Malaysia - 39,170,886 - Neutral - (Pro-CoT MPPs)
- 70 - Bolivia - 35,586,331 - Neutral - (Pro-TWO MPPs)

Average Daily Influence was calculated by dividing the last month's worth of countries' influence and dividing it number of days in a month.

To start with EDEN is not over. It definitely has problems but it is still the biggest show in town.



All alliances - Avg. Daily Influence
Asgard - 1,052,764,536
CoT - 9,540,226,228
EDEN - 19,224,578,273
Neutral - 11,606,686,021
TWO - 15,626,026,201

There are no atheists in foxholes and no neutrals when the bombs fall

There are a lot of countries in eRepublik that fly under the banner of 'Neutral' but their MPP stacks, who they fight for and receive support from shows a distinct alliance. The only two countries that could truly claim a neutral status are the USA and Brazil, in part due to their large size allowing them to write their own ticket. That being said, although they have not signed on to any alliance they definitely lean towards CoT.



Identifying the Neutrals - Avg. Daily Influence
(Pro-CoT MPPs) - 223,271,903
(Pro-EDEN MPPs) - 4,174,867,839
(Pro-TWO MPPs) - 1,335,904,831
Asgard - 1,226,336,583
CoT - 9,540,226,228
EDEN - 19,224,578,273
TWO - 15,626,026,201
No allies - 155,136,078
USA - 3,989,423,015
Brazil - 1,554,510,309


When we match the neutrals with their parent alliances we can get a bit more of a clearer picture.



Matching countries with their allies - Avg. Daily Influence
Asgard - 1,226,336,583
CoT with pro-CoT countries - 9,763,498,131
EDEN with pro-EDEN countries - 23,399,446,112
TWO with pro-TWO countries - 16,961,931,032
No allies - 155,136,078
USA - 3,989,423,015
Brazil - 1,554,510,309

Now while EDEN still has a significant lead over TWO and CoT in terms of daily influence it can level, what has changed in recent months has been the unspoken alliance between TWO and CoT to only attack EDEN and not each other. When you take all the pro-EDEN countries and compare it against the anti-EDEN countries a different picture forms.



Pro-EDEN vs. Anti-EDEN - Avg. Daily Influence
Pro-EDEN - 24,625,782,695
Anti-EDEN - 32,269,362,486
No allies - 155,136,078

32,269,362,486 (56.56😵 - 24,625,782,695 (43.17😵 = 7,643,579,791 (13.39😵

When all is said and done, the anti-EDEN alliances have a 7,643,579,791 lead over EDEN which equates to a 13.39% lead. With huge wild cards in play, such as the USA (7😵 who switching from CoT to EDEN could instantly restore balance, and the newness of TWO and CoT, this is not a large game changing lead.

Also will the end game of CoT and TWO maintain or will either of them eventually look upon the other as a eventual threat. TWO is clearly the more aggressive of the two alliances, I'm curious if the agreement between the two is motivated in part that TWO is larger than CoT.

Influence is also a fickle thing. Just because a country wins a battle, a campaign or even a country, the influences of countries doesn't disappear.

The price of occupation

The mechanics of the game create a diminishing influence the more territory that is conquered limiting possible expansion.

For example, out of the current 40 territories that Poland's current holds on 6 are original core Poland territories.
Country – territories – alliance – average daily influence
Poland – 6 – TWO - 4,796,403,727
Ukraine - 2 – pro-EDEN – 584,686,096
France - 17 – pro-EDEN -614,086,384
Germany - 9 – pro-EDEN – 558,059,071
Netherlands - 4 – EDEN – 129,349,179
Philippines - 2 – pro-EDEN – 584,686,096

So in order to retain the territories that it has conquered, Poland needs to set aside 2,470,866,826 of it's 4,796,403,727 daily influence leaving it with 2,325,536,901 daily influence. This means Poland's occupation of other countries essentially cuts it's power in half. The more it conquers the weaker it gets as an attacking power.

The new and shinny verses the old and tested; attempting to look beyond the math

First established in September 26th, 2009, EDEN has endured for more than three years. More than half as long as the game has existed. Founded in June 22, 2012 Circle of Trust has existed for 7 months. Asgard was formed in August 22, 2012 and is 5 months old. TWO was created on created on December 3, 2012 and has existed for 27 days.

Given how quickly governments and alliances can change in this game, to count EDEN out now is unfortunately short sighted for the track record it has already set for years. CoT and EDEN are obviously enjoying good times now, but they have no record of consistency to judge how they will weather the ups and downs that this game can easily through at them. EDEN also is burdened with a history that CoT and TWO don't have.

While CoT and TWO are new and shinny, EDEN has had to make the hard decisions that campaign after campaign brings. CoT and TWO haven't been around long enough to create the inevitable hard feelings that will come from years of warfare. In every war someone will have to take the hits, be used as cannon fodder, just generally get the short end of the stick and that can obviously lead to some hard feelings in the long run. For example, although the allies won World War II, 44,198 Canadians were killed. If you could ask those 44,198 Canadians they would probably not see World War II as a win. But did the Allies win. Yes.

So given the long history of EDEN and the sort history of TWO, CoT and Asgard it is almost like trying to compare apples to oranges and makes a fair evaluation of an alliance's sustainability very difficult.

Two verses one (so to speak)

EDEN is facing the same problem any large organization faces. It's too big for it's own good. It has inefficiencies that any top heavy command structure faces. It can not hope to effectively organize every country under it's banner. This is compounded due to facing two opponents at the same time. Two smaller command structures that take less time to plan, organize and implement then the larger EDEN.

Organically the EDEN countries who have felt ignored have fallen into a neutral pro-EDEN state. EDEN needs to start delegating power among it's alliance. Divide up the responsibilities of facing CoT and TWO between the existing EDEN countries and create a new command centre. This could be done through Asgard or a new secondary EDEN alliance.

What does this mean for Canada?

Canada maintains it's pro-EDEN status and loyalty to it's EDEN allies fiercely. That loyalty was also strongly returned to Canada in our fights against the UK. This is not just a loyalty held by it's government, but also it's people. I could easily see our country getting ripped apart from the inside if the government ever moved forward with a TWO or CoT plan.

Thankfully our solution could easily be the solution for EDEN mentioned above. Join a new secondary EDEN alliance or Asgard. Currently Asgard enjoys a security through obscurity. They are at the edge of the eRepublik world and not in the middle of the regular combat. The second the smaller 'neutral' pro-EDEN countries start to pile into Asgard's backyard that reality will change.

There is a huge opportunity to unite the dissatisfied pro-EDEN countries under a new banner, maintain the long held alliances we have enjoyed and create a new command center that will respond more quickly to the smaller countries needs. This can be accomplished either through Asgard or a new secondary EDEN alliance. Hopefully this break down of information will assist in that endeavor.

Foxfire
President of eCanada

See the Boomer’s Academy for mentorship.
Get Food/Health up to 500 per day.
Join the Ambassador Corps.
New player or interested in mentoring a new player, fill out this form.

Your CP is listening to CP – track 7.