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DISCLAIMER: No party has had any input for this article. It is completely based on my thoughts, knowledge and observation. It is fully an “opinion piece”, meant to be a nice read, and NOT to write off any coalition, party, or whatsoever. All implied party stances are my interpretation of current events. I have tried to write this as neutral as possible, as political analyst and not as member of IP. Therefore, none of below incorporates the opinion of IP!

As we currently do not have a CP government anymore, the excitement of forming a coalition has again been brought upon us by the Congress Elections. The results are in: I&W and LSD have 10 seats each, with IP (😎, GLD (7) and CPNL (5) also having substantial parts of Congress. What will the next government be? An analysis of the possible coalitions that have a majority:

BIG PARTIES: I&W + LSD (20 seats)
The two biggest parties together would have 20 seats in congress. Although this is not majority, it should give enough support to a government, especially seeing as the President (holding a congress vote) is part of I&W. What the concrete plans will be is unclear, although both parties have a babyboom in mind (but which party doesn’t?). Advantage is that only two parties participate, which could make the formation easy. However, I&W and LSD lately doesn’t seem to be the best friends, politically seen. That, and considering they do not have a real majority, makes this government not seem very likely. Score - Unlikely (1/3)

SUPPORTED BIG PARTIES: I&W + LSD + either IP (28 seats), GLD (27 seats) or CPNL (25 seats).
A coalition with I&W and LSD could make a good majority when one other party is included. Still, the differences in I&W and LSD exist, and even a possible “glue” (IP, GLD or CPNL) does not fully take this away. GLD is the first option, having worked together with both LSD and I&W a lot. However, they have publicly stated less than a month ago that they are “are unhappy with the LSD in their recent attitude towards our party and we are not thrilled about their policies”, and that their “coalition with the LSD is over and we are going to improve relations and work closely with our brothers and sisters in the I&W.” Chances are, that LSD is not thrilled about being in a government with I&W ánd GLD, as they might consider themselves “outnumbered”. IP is a more ‘neutral’ choice. Some members have worked together with I&W in former LP, but with guys like AndreasIsaksson, Dionysus and me joining the party, it is really a new party. However, it is unsure what the attitude of IP – being a party of individual, independent members – will be concerning joining coalitions, although their willingness to cooperate (according to their party vision) implies they will not block participation. So how about CPNL? It is possible, but due to their left orientation, it is unlikely that I&W will choose them over GLD or IP. Any of the above mentioned coalitions would give a coalition that can be considered center-oriented. Still it is good imaginable that I&W and LSD do not look forward to a coalition together. Scores – Coalition with IP: Possible (2/3); Coalition with GL😨 Possible (2/3); Coalition with CPNL: Unlikely (1/3)

RIGHT-WING COALITION: I&W + GLD + IP (25 seats).
Before the CP government, the country was governed for several periods by a coalition of I&W, GLD and LP. As the LP does not exist anymore, this will not happen. Many members of LP are currently in IP, and therefore, a coalition of I&W, GLD and IP doesn’t have to feel completely new. Although the parties mostly consider themselves center, this is the most “right-wing” coalition possible. We can expect a focus on free market mechanism, supported by state companies and an international orientation with focus on activity within Phoenix. There has been minor political friction between (mostly individual members of) GLD and IP lately, but relations seem to be better again and both parties could settle their differences. The history, good relations and comparable political views make for a highly possible coalition. Score – Good chance (3/3)

LEFT-WING COALITION: LSD + IP + CPNL (23 seats).
There is also a chance on the most left coalition currently possible: LSD and CPNL, combined with IP. LSD and CPNL (former Worker’s Party) have a good history together, and are the two parties oriented to the left. Together, they will lack seats for a majority, and both I&W and GLD probably do not have working together with (mainly) CPNL on top of their wish-list. IP, on the other hand, does not have much history that proves whether they want or do not want to work together with LSD and/or CPNL, but their party vision includes some words that apply to the views of LSD and CPNL. Such a left coalition would have mainly a social state in mind, with state intervention in the market where needed. Although minimum wages will probably not go up because of CPNL running their commune with low wages, state companies will be a good part of the market to provide goods. International participation will mainly be defensive activity within Phoenix. The success of this coalition mainly depends on IP’s stance, but with their statement that they are looking forward to work with all different parties within UNL, it is definitely not unlikely. Score – Good chance (3/3)

SMALL PARTY GOVERNMENT: IP + GLD + CPNL (20 seats).
Because of the highly dispersed votes, it is even possible to exclude the big parties, and have a coalition that include only the ‘small’ parties. IP and CPNL are the big winners in the elections. Together with GLD, a coalition can be formed with 20 seats (no majority). However, this is mainly noteworthy because of the unique possibility, and not because of the probability. There is no real reason for any of these parties to make this happen: GLD would rather look forward to work with I&W, and CPNL is more likely to be oriented towards LSD. Still, the smallest parties having enough votes to form a government is unique in UNL. Score – Impossible (0/3)

OTHER POSSIBILITIES: I&W + IP + CPNL (23 seats) or LSD + IP + GLD (25 seats)
Just to be complete, I’ll name the above possibilities. However, putting together I&W with CPNL in one government, instead of GLD or LSD, doesn’t really make sense. LSD/IP/GLD is a bit more likely, but only if I&W cannot agree to the terms being discussed. In any other case, it seems like GLD is not going to work together with LSD and leave out I&W, as stated above. Score – I&W + IP + CPNL: Impossible (0/3); LSD + IP + GL😨 Unlikely (1/3)

FOUR-PARTY GOVERNMENT or FIVE PARTY GOVERNMENT
Yes, it is possible that a government is formed out of 4 or even 5 parties. However, experiences with this are not good in UNL. Additionally, if a good government can be formed with 3 parties, there isn’t really needed a reason to include a fourth or even fifth party. The only chance is that – for example – LSD agrees to participate in a I&W/GLD government if they have ‘back-up’ on the left from CPNL, leading to a I&W/LSD/GLD/CPNL coalition. Also, it can be that a coalition of the two big parties is being discussed, and that both IP and GLD are equally likely to back them up, leading to a I&W/LSD/IP/GLD coalition. However, this will probably make the coalition talks unnecessary complex and other possibilities seem to be more easily formed. Score – Unlikely (1/3)

CONCLUSION
The coalitions having the most chances are coalitions with clear political orientation: either right-wing (I&W/IP/GLD) or left-wing (LSD/IP/CPNL). Another good possibility is a center oriented government of the two big parties, supported by a third party (I&W/LSD, plus either GLD or IP). Whatever happens, good coalition talks should form the basis. As both I&W and LSD have 10 seats, it might be wise to appoint a “neutral” (in)formateur, instead of the PP of the “biggest” (?) party. As the President is the one appointing the formateur, it’s up to him how to proceed. Maybe he is even the one that should be leading the coalition talks…

UNL, we will see. This is definitely a point where I can say: “… to be continued”

Boklevski,
Wannabe political analyst.