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I was going to write an article about how to create the perfect, unstoppable alliance which would achieve almost complete global domination. However, I went about that by making a simplified model about how the military module works on eRepublik. I am a RL statistician so I got a bit carried away 😮

So, instead, I'm going to share my enthusiasm for mathematics and talk to you about my military module model! YAY! Now, this model is meant to loosely reflect reality (as in, eRepublik reality) but it has many assumptions to make it simpler.

Just below this is a 'Let's Talk' banner. This is a long article! If you want to skip any parts of this, you can scroll down to the next Let's Talk banner. I personally think all of it's interesting but, if your're not as nerdy as me, then you can pick out the interesting parts to read.



Assumption 1: The only variables which affect a battle are the number of fighters and the influence (damage) dealt by their country.

Assumption 2: For one country to conquer another, there only needs to be one battle.

Assumption 3: Airstrikes have happened in the past but, in this model, there can not be any more airstrikes. Countries can only attack their neighbours.

Assumption 4: The number of fighters and the influence dealt by each country all start off as a fixed amount (the amount on eGov4You at 22:00 eRepublik time on Day 2180).

Assumption 5: In a battle, fighters die. (Fighters remaining) = (Fighters at start of battle) - (Enemy fighters)

Assumption 6: Influence is used as a sort of 'energy currency'. (Influence after a battle) = (Influence at start of battle) - (Enemy influence)

Assumption 7: A country can not attack any other country if all of its neighbours have either a higher number of fighters or a larger amount of influence than it does. In other words, a country must stop when it runs out of fighters and influence.

Assumption 8: Countries must take turns to attack each other and only specified countries can attack. They inject the locals with happy juice and there are no RWs.



OK, so those are all the assumptions. Don't worry if you don't understand what's going on, it's actually really simple.

We pick a country. Then, we look at how many fighters it has and how many fighters all its neighbours have. Then, we look at how much influence it has to spend (like energy points in eRepublik) and how much influence all its neighbours have. After that, we make the country attack a couple of neighbours and then we look in awe at how much territory it has conquered! Yay! We also have to remember to 'attack' any countries which the country has already wiped or partially conquered because they could escape otherwise!

Now, I'll show you what I did. I did these steps in this exact order and I think the outcome is really cool:

Note: I am using the notation (Number of Fighters; Influence) so (100; 500) means 100 fighters and 500 influence, for example.

Pick China

1. China (627; 5,559,863,050) attacks North Korea.
2. China (597; 5,261,701,810) attacks Republic of China (Taiwan).
3. China (151; 3,447,978,640) attacks South Korea.
4. China (66; 3,140,878, 210) ends their turn.

The aim of this is to conquer as many countries as you can. BUT there's a catch. The number of countries you conquered (your 'score') is the number conquered by ALL the countries you pick. That means, don't go greedy with one country if it might 'block' another country's attacks. This takes some planning and organisation. Woohoo!



Pick the USA

1. USA (1085; 6,109,113,330) demands its eastern regions back from Poland.
This diplomatic move is possible because the USA will eventually receive its eastern regions back from Poland. I just imagined that it happened immediately. It's kind of cheating but it could possibly happen in eRepublik so it can therefore happen in this model.
2. USA (1085; 6,109,113,330) attacks Portugal.
3. USA (595; 2,090,389,930) attacks Ireland.
4. USA (510; 1,620,043,810) ends their turn.

Do you know why I decided that the USA should invade some European countries? Why didn't I tell them to conquer any North or South American countries?

Pick Spain

1. Spain (1604; 11,288,484,230) attacks Venezuela.
2. Spain (1416; 10,227,354,480) attacks Mexico.
3. Spain (1084; 9,045,335,390) attacks Colombia.
4. Spain (893; 8,105,947,800) attacks Canada.
5. Spain (594; 6,228l981,790) ends their turn.

The USA left North and South America alone because Spain started with more influence and more fighters and so they let Spain do it instead. That way, more countries are conquered and a higher score can be reached.

Pick Argentina

1. Argentina (1341; 8,290,420,160) attacks Brazil.
I chose to start with one of the largest South American countries. That means that I can see what I am and am not able to do.
2. Argentina (662; 4,296,473,670) attacks South Africa.
3. Argentina (555; 3,077,914,570) attacks Peru.

I haven't told you anywhere but I'll tell you now. Chile is (847; 4,833,219,950). But (Brazil + Chile) is (1526; 8,827,166,470). The number of fighters here is greater than the number of fighters that Argentina started off with so we can't attack both Brazil and Chile. I attacked Brazil because it has a far smaller number of fighters and about 1,000,000,000 less influence than Chile. That means, more countries can be conquered. Badoink!

4. Argentina (389;2,012,871,730) attacks Uruguay.
5. Argentina (306; 1,860,507,080) attacks Paraguay.
6. Argentina (183; 1,026,010,350) attacks Bolivia.
7. Argentina (98; 681,604,830) ends their turn.

Pick Serbia

1. Serbia (4150; 23,179,646,310) attacks the original regions of Croatia.

Serbia is attacking only the original Croatian regions because it can't use an AS. And look at the power of Serbia too! Their military is the most powerful by far in this model. Do you think Serbia will conquer the most territories because its size gives it more opportunity? You'll find out later 😉

2. Serbia (3093; 15,427,107,810) attacks the original regions of Albania.
3. Serbia (2876; 14,422,336,210) attacks Slovenia.
4. Serbia (2225; 9,463,549,170) attacks Switzerland.
5. Serbia (2184; 9,192,510,370) attacks Montenegro.
6. Serbia (2096; 8,703,340,600) attacks Italy.
7. Serbia (2055; 8,432,301,800) attacks Austria.
8. Serbia (1975; 7,948,751,710) attacks Slovakia.
9. Serbia (1889; 7,586,934,530) attacks Czech Republic.
10. Serbia (1837; 7,405,478,550) attacks France.
11. Serbia (1422; 5,838,486,470) ends their turn.

Note to self: Serbia has got 11. Can any of the other countries get more than that? Let's find out!

Pick Hungary

1. Hungary (1873; 11,513,704,910) attacks Russia.
2. Hungary (1204; 7,695,195,160) attacks Belarus.
3. Hungary (1041; 7,066,922,760) attacks Finland.
4. Hungary (731; 5,271,871,100) attacks Latvia.
5. Hungary (500; 3,524,467,650) attacks Lithuania.
6. Hungary (142; 1,799,992,640) ends their turn.

Now, I am using Romania, Turkey and Greece. Bear with me while I do this and then we'll look at Poland. Ooh...

Pick Romania

1. Romania (1809; 11,137,338,380) attacks Bulgaria.
2. Romania (971; 7,296,391,380) attacks Moldova.
3. Romania (863; 6,734,960,440) attacks Ukraine.
4. Romania (207; 2,570,696,680) ends their turn.

Pick Turkey

1. Turkey (970; 8,600,066,940) attacks the UAE.
2. Turkey (932; 8,194,005,650) attacks Cyprus.
3. Turkey (863; 7,631,935,680) attacks Israel.
4. Turkey (765; 7,293,366,600) ends their turn.

Notice how Turkey have a LOT of influence left over. This is similar to Greece.

Pick Greece

1. Greece (1668; 12,329,577,890) attacks Egypt.
2. Greece (1617; 12,073,880,790) attacks Saudi Arabia.
3. Greece (1595; 11,986,490,420) attacks Iran.
4. Greece (1389; 10,926,805,890) attacks the original regions of Pakistan.
5. Greece (1325; 10,436,120,060) attacks the Indian regions of Albania.

Albania's original regions have already been attacked by Serbia so don't worry about them.

6. Greece (108; 9,431,348,460) attacks India.
7. Greece (1055; 9,172,427,430) attacks Macedonia.
8. Greece (?; ?) ends their turn.

I couldn't find Macedonia or FYROM on eGov4You. Nonetheless, we can still see that Greece has a LOT of energy left over. Turkey did too. Why do you think this is?

Finally, pick Poland

You'll be pleased to hear that this is the last one!

1. Poland (2628; 16,840,555,570) attacks Indonesia.

Poland has already had an AS on Indonesia so they were there since the start. Therefore, this is allowed.

2. Poland (2075; 13,588,550,110) attacks Germany.
3. Poland (1754; 12,206,086,900) attacks Denmark.
4. Poland (1717; 11,928,202,190) attacks Sweden.
5. Poland (1558; 10,649,113,450) attacks Estonia.
6. Poland (1437; 9,969,454,650) attacks Thailand.
7. Poland (1370; 8,991,982,700) attacks Singapore.
8. Poland (1350; 8,872,038,420) attacks Malaysia.
9. Poland (1328; 8,814,265,880) attacks Australia.
10. Poland (1211; 8,291,336,500) attacks New Zealand.
11. Poland (1135; 7,698,498,340) attacks Norway.
12. Poland (1092; 7,215,412,070) attacks Belgium.
13. Poland (1019; 6,802,700,760) attacks the Netherlands.
14. Poland (930; 6,268,686,660) ends their turn.

Serbia had 11 actions but Poland has 14. Serbia has a larger military than Poland though so why haven't Serbia had more actions than Poland?



So, why on Earth did we do all of this? What does this model show us and what's the point of it? Well...

I will order the countries I picked in terms of their relative strengths (based on their amount of influence at the start) and I will compare this to the number of actions they made:

Largest to smallest militaries: Serbia, Poland, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Spain, Turkey, Argentina, USA and China.

Largest to smallest number of actions: Poland, Serbia, Greece, Argentina, Hungary, Spain and USA/China/Romania/Turkey (these last countries all tied at 4 actions).

Look at the ones I've underlined. You can see (generally) that the positions of each country are roughly the same in both orders.This suggests that having a large military which deals out a lot of influence (damage) makes it easier for a country to win battles and gain regions. Well, yeah, obviously a large military will make you stronger so you can conquer more.

But the orders in the two lists are NOT EXACTLY identical! This suggests that some countries naturally find it easier to conquer their neighbours than others do. OK, Poland and Serbia are able to get lots of regions because they are surrounded by many smaller countries. But they are also able to get lots of regions simply because there are a lot of regions around them.

Turkey (and to some extent Greece) had a lot of influence left over at the end. This was because they had run out of neighbouring countries to invade. Why? Take a look at the eRepublik map, Africa and a large part of the Middle East don't exist! Greece and Turkey simply don't have anywhere to go. Well, Greece did manage to have the 3rd highest number of actions but that was only because they left the Middle East through Iran and went across to India where there are more neighbouring countries. This is the point of the model. I've babbled on for long enough now, I'll conclude this and finish 😉



Conclusion

The model suggests that larger/stronger militaries should find it easier to conquer enemy regions than smaller/weaker countries. It also suggests that geography plays a large part in how easily a country can conquer enemy regions. Countries in secluded (or boxed off) areas like the Middle East or South Africa may have a harder time obtaining foreign regions and their best strategy is to expand to an area (like India or Oceania) where there are a lot of regions.

It also strongly suggests that Jimbobfrey loves his work far too much and that, in his spare time, he finds it fun to calculate all of this for 3 hours and then write the article up in another 5 hours after that. It implies that Jimbobfrey has 'no life' and is a rather strange person...

What did you think? Let me know in the comments.

Have a fun life!
-Jimbobfrey