September Election Prediction

Day 3,211, 12:33 • Published in USA USA • by Gnilraps
Day 3211 of the New World
September 4, 2016






Last month 16 Shells accurately predicted the outcome of the CP election by soliciting the endorsements from 20 of the more powerful players in eUSA. The list is mostly comprised of HadrianX’s Power List, though as we move forward I will be taking the liberty to adjust that list. The adjustments I plan to make will fall into two categories:

1 - Citizen A gets replaced by Citizen B because Citizen A either quits or greatly falls out of prominance.

2 - Citizen C gets replaced by Citizen D because Citizen C does not participate in my surveys.

The goal is to get a forecast of the election by polling the 20 or 30 most powerful players in eUSA.

As I said, last month this worked perfectly. This method predicted a safe margin of victory for Resoula. That is what we saw happen on the 5th.





Last month I also published a brief poetic reflection on the retiring CP, so I figured I'd stab at it again this month before we get to the numbers.



Baa Baa Black Sheeps have you any plans?
All month Black Sheeps sitting on their cans?
U S A F - what’s it gonna be?
Baa Baa hand it over to the next CP!

Baa Baa Black Sheeps can you play along?
All month Black Sheeps singing one bad song.
“Naa Naa we won’t tell you what we’ve done!”
Baa Baa that’s ‘cause it amounts to none.






I promised the people who responded to my list that I would not be publishing their endorsements this time around. Yes, I myself will see their choice, but only I will see it (along with the spies at Google Docs I suppose). I am in hopes that this will increase the accuracy of the polling as well as the willingness of the participants.






And so my inquiry went out to 20 individuals (21 including me) who are generally regarded as power players. All they were asked to do was identify themselves and who they plan to vote for between Pfeiffer and Orikfricai.

These are power players, so within 1 hour I already had 11 out of 21 responses in. Having now collected 20 of the 21, I can publish my findings...

Here is the 16 Shells CP election prediction for September 2016.







Among the top 10 Power players:

Pfeiffer and Orik are split 5 and 5.


Among the 20 who responde😛

Pfeiffer has 10 supporters
Orik has 10 supporters


In other words, this is shaping up to be a remarkably close race (unless my ridiculous excuse for an accurate prediction proves to be… well… ridiculous.)





Let’s dig a little deeper.

Using the freshly minted 16 Shells Bias Meter (patent pending), I weighted each respondent's response on a scale of .5 - 1.5 based on how biased the Bias Meter measured each respondent. (I love writing sentences like that.)

I then recalculated the responses post-Bias-Meter.

Do not expect me to explain the 16 Shells Bias Meter system. It is proprietary, top secret, and far too complicated for you to understand, trust me.

However, after calculating, recalculating, and re-recalculating…

Henry Pfeiffer Arundel receives a “score” of 8.8
Orikfricai receives a “score” of 8.9
(You can’t make this shit up!)

Therefore:

16 Shells projects Orikfricai as the next CP/D of eUSA by a very slim margin.





Caveat:

16 Shells is also in possession of top secret information pertaining to an anti-Pfeiffer multi farm consisting of over 50 bots. If this bot farm is activated, 16 Shells projects that Orikfricai’s margin of victory will be between 35 and 50 votes.

I am not making this up either.




You may now return to your regularly scheduled clicking