[RL] Ukraine - The Restoration Game

Day 5,586, 02:53 Published in USA Chile by Wilker Nath
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cq8k-ZbsXDI




There is no such place as Krassnia. Lucy Stone should know—she was born there. In that tiny, troubled region of the former Soviet Union, revolution is brewing. Its organizers need a safe place to meet, and where better than the virtual spaces of an online game? Lucy, who works for a start-up games company in Edinburgh, has a project that almost seems made for the job: a game inspired by The Krassniad, an epic folk tale concocted by Lucy’s mother, Amanda, who studied there in the 1980s. Lucy knows Amanda is a spook. She knows her great-grandmother Eugenie also visited the country in the 1930s and met the man who originally collected Krassnian folklore, and who perished in Stalin’s terror. As Lucy digs up details about her birthplace to slot into the game, she finds the open secrets of her family’s past, the darker secrets of Krassnia’s past—and hints about the crucial role she is destined to play in The Restoration Game.

I saw RGR made an article inserting RL politics into the game once again. Now, do I think erep admins are involved in some coverup anti government coup attempt in a third world nation somewhere? No. Do I think that the activity boost resulting from the media module becoming a RL politics blog *COULD* be the best thing to happen to the eUS since Bubblar was PoteUS? Probably.

I’m bored, and I also no longer have desire to participate in the politics or war modules of this game, so here goes.

The Counter Case on Ukraine

Contents:

-Pacifism
-Local or Global Issue
-NATO Involvement
-US Foreign Policy
-Brief Talk on the eUS


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztZI2aLQ9Sw




Pacifism

For context, I am indeed a conscientious objector. For both moral and religious reasons, I will refuse to enter the military or take a human life if instructed to do so by the government or a military officer. My reasoning? I could start quoting Matthew 5:38-48, and I would be genuine if I did, but really on the topic of pacifism I consider that to be retroactive justification for what I know in my soul to be the truth of human nature: human-on-human violence and bloodshed is simply wrong, and the survivors of such things too often come away with mental scars that can change the course of their lives.

I see Ukraine as a topic on which most people have already made up their minds, and are unlikely to change their opinion. Given that, my purpose for writing will no longer be strictly to persuade, but more to entertain. And given that, I see no issue going off on a tangent.

I must confess, the headstrong part of my mind does regret that I’ve aged out of the Selective Service age range, and sometimes daydreams about an event where I would be drafted, and have to stubbornly refuse military service in the face of equally stubborn and uncaring government officials. The reality would likely be far less theatrical in our modern day. I expect that, given the proper paperwork, I would be assigned an alternative service job without too much issue, and I’d spend years of my life far from home, but still in the country doing some anticlimactic duty as a replacement for military service. I doubt that I’d even see much resentment from fellow citizens for having done so, given how many people out there are already expressing apprehension at the idea of America getting directly involved in the Ukraine war. It's not the same country our parents and grandparents grew up in, in that regard. As tempting as it can be for me to get hot under the collar at the idea of Americans dying in foreign lands, I personally am unlikely to be in any danger unless the war comes to our homeland.

While I do hold that conviction, I also recognize that the rest of the world can’t be expected to do the same. I view it as a sort of oath to myself, reminiscent of the Hippocratic Oath “I will do no harm.” But just because I’ve taken this oath, does not make me immune to others who want to do harm to me. I recognize that if, in some magical fantasy, millions upon millions of Americans had a change of heart, if thousands of Raytheon and Lockheed Martin employees decided that the company they work for no longer lined up with their values and so searched for other employment, if military enlistment suddenly dropped 90%, if disarming all of our nuclear weapons was suddenly a serious discussion on the senate floor, far from making the world safer, America would likely become the target of opportunistic, imperialistic hostile nations. Peace through deterrence is a valid argument to make.

I accept that I don’t have solutions to the world’s problems. But still, I will hold myself to what I believe, even if only on an individual level. I will do no harm.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9INnMMwvnk


That being said, it’s time to transition into the meat and bones of the topic.

Local or Global Issue

Put yourself in a newsroom. Imagine you’re behind a writer’s desk, and you have to come up with a short, simple slogan to get people fired up about what’s going on thousands of miles from their homes. Or better yet, imagine you’re a politician about to give a press conference, and you need a short sound bite that’s hard for the media to edit and take out of context. What do you say?

I’ll quote a little from RGR’s article.

”This should not be a left/right, or political issue. It's a matter of right and wrong. There have been murders, rapes, tortures, abductions, intentional targeting of civilians. These are the actions of a terrorist state. There is no way to justify this behavior.”

As far as elevator pitches for conflict go, this one does its job nicely. It targets peoples’ emotions, and it appeals to our sense of fairness, convincing us that the "other side" has done something terribly wrong that they need to get punished for. Let’s look at another one.

”Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So basically, that’s wrong”

This one is a quote from our VP, Kamala. Memes aside, I was specifically looking for a quote that boiled down the question to its absolute simplest terms. This one has it laid out for us. Big country invades smaller country. Unfair. Wrong.

We can go back and forth all day talking about which side has the bigger war crimes, but when it comes down to it, very many Americans have very little idea as to events leading up to the invasion, and quite a large number don’t seem to care.

How many of us in America considered themselves up to date on the region’s news, history, background, and politics before the news of the invasion broke? Probably very few. How many of us consider ourselves well-read on the history and demographics of the breakaway regions even now? Probably, still, very few. What are the chances of a person being able to really understand the pulse of the culture of that region, even with strong effort? Well, for the vast majority whose native language uses the Latin alphabet, very very few. Including myself, almost nobody born in the US is capable of understanding the politics of Luhansk and Donetsk on an expert level. We can only google and jump to conclusions based on incomplete or translated data.



For jollies, though, what can we learn? Well, let’s take some raw numbers from the wikipedia pages of those two regions.

On Donetsk:

”According to the 2001 census, the Donetsk Oblast is inhabited by members of more than 130 ethnic groups.[55] The Ukrainian ethnicity is 56.9% of the population (2,744,100 people); the Russian ethnicity is 38.2% of the population (1,844,400 people).[55] The native language of 74.9% of the population of the Donetsk region is Russian, compared with 24.1% Ukrainian.[56] 58.7% of people of Ukrainian ethnicity considered Russian to be their native language.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk
(March 6, 2023, 5:34pm EST)

Already we have something that makes us second-guess at least some of what we’ve been told by the media.

Now for Luhansk:

”In the Ukrainian Census of 2001,[14] 49.6% of the inhabitants declared themselves as ethnically Ukrainians and 47% as Russians. 85.3% of the population spoke Russian as their native language, while 13.7% spoke Ukrainian, 0.2% Armenian and 0.1% Belarusian.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk
(March 6, 2023, 5:36pm EST)

These numbers similarly leave room for doubt as to whether this border region bleeds yellow and blue as much as the rest of their nation.

Now, with that ethnic and language makeup, did these regions have political differences in the 2010s with the rest of the country regarding Ukrainian or Russian identity? Has the demographic makeup changed over time? Was the change natural, or did one side or the other encourage people of their ethnic group to move into the region in an effort to change the land’s identity over time? Do these differences go back to ‘91 when the Soviet Union fell? Longer than that? Do people who live there debate with each other over whether it was justified when whichever tzar conquered the land they live on? Anecdotal, word-of-mouth evidence tells me there was some conflict leading up to this, but that’s just as reliable as anything else on the internet.

For the purposes of this article, I very much wish I was qualified to put together a comprehensive political timeline of events leading up to the current war, but being an English speaker, even if by some stroke of luck I manage to put the timeline itself together without missing something important, it would take me much longer to put together an adequate presentation of all the context.

Suffice it to say I don’t have the answers to the questions I asked above, and neither do 95% of Americans. And yet, so many of us are so eager to feed on that simplistic appeal to fairness and condemn Russia as the aggressor.

Who knows, maybe the attack was truly unprovoked, maybe Putin was sniffing something strong when he made his claim that the people in those breakaway regions need assistance in securing their independence. That could very well be true. And something else, I wouldn’t be surprised if, counter to the claims that independence was the goal, the breakaway regions end up under Russian control permanently after all the dust settles. I wouldn’t put it past Putin. But I think not enough of us in the West recognize our own ignorance of the context behind all of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_39eAx3z8


NATO Involvement

Before you bring your pitchforks and torches into the comments, know that I’m not saying not to support civilians in Ukraine. It’s a certainty that in Kiev, in other parts of Ukraine, there are loads of people who don’t deserve a war in their backyard, and have done nothing personally to provoke it. There are innocent people everywhere in the world. There’s nothing wrong with sending them humanitarian aid.

What I do question is why we’re sending tanks there. Why are we sending guns and ammunition? Why do we have military advisors there? Why have we sent 12 figures of USD to a foreign nation? We are, after all, depleting our own weapon stockpiles and that of NATO for the sake of a non-NATO country. Is the fairness aspect of Russia fighting to liberate two Russian-speaking regions (supposedly to give them independence) worth the amount of stress we’re putting on our economies and military infrastructures?

These questions get a bit nerve-wracking when you compare it to the lend-lease deals leading up to our involvement in WW2. They get even more nerve-wracking when you consider how many NATO countries as well as Russia are nuclear-armed. We are, after all, only 90 seconds to midnight according to the official doomsday clock.

Those who study history may already have had a clue where I’m going next when I mentioned military advisors 2 paragraphs up. I believe the technical term is “Mission Creep”



In the beginning of the Vietnam conflict, we simply had military advisors there to train South Vietnamese troops. Over the course of multiple presidential administrations, it escalated into multiple years of drafting people for military service, and led to a famous era of protests in our country. It is my worry that the escalation in Ukraine will continue, and eventually draw our country into another foreign conflict. “It’s just a few people to train their military” will transition to “We just need a few people to guard weapon stockpiles” and “we just need to bolster security and police in civilian-occupied zones.” Eventually we’ll get to a point where American deaths (or claims of deaths) will prompt more direct involvement. Before we know it, we’ll have an entire decade of war and death and (quoting RGR again) “murders, rapes, tortures, abductions, intentional targeting of civilians.” Wouldn’t it be better to let Ukraine either stand or fall on their own? I believe the conflict would be over quicker if that were to happen. Those who put emphasis on the horrors of war reaching the civilians of Ukraine would (one would think) support something that leads to a quicker end to the war.

There’s also the matter of the Nord Stream pipeline. Officially, we don’t know who did it, but evidence strongly suggests the American government is responsible. I would think that the military intelligence of several countries involved already know for sure, and the public just isn’t allowed to find out yet. By attacking and destroying an asset for trade between a NATO country (Germany) and the Russian nation, whoever did it has risked sparking a war in which both NATO and Russia are against them. If it was a joint NATO decision or the decision of one independent NATO nation, then revealing the culprit would give Russia a just cause for war on NATO. If it was Ukraine, we’d be forced to ask why a nation we’re sending hundreds of billions in aid to would do that to us. The best thing we could hope for is that it was done by some non-sanctioned non-government group, or that Russia did it to themselves for some puzzling reason. Sadly, I think neither of those are the case.

Needless to say, I don’t like how close we are to direct NATO military involvement. After all, what happens if/when Russia decides that transport vehicles within Ukraine's borders from NATO nations are “fair” military targets due to the military nature of the things they are transporting? What happens if citizens of a NATO country, civilian truck drivers hauling military weapons for example, get caught in an explosion completely by accident? What if Russia wasn’t intending to target them, but they die anyway? What happens if a shipping vessel in the Black Sea carrying military equipment gets mistaken for a Ukrainian military ship and destroyed by Russia? What happens if, for some reason, a passenger ship is in the area and gets sunk? Nothing good, presumably.

We are very close to war. We need to back down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc5Nk1DXyEY


US Foreign Policy

Above, I drew parallels between current events and events leading up to American involvement in Vietnam, and the First World War. I compared the mission creep in Vietnam to what I see as the start of mission creep in Ukraine. Now, I’ll be looking at wider US Foreign Policy from the past century and asking some simple questions about our nation’s positions on the world stage.

Afghanistan is a recent involvement that came to a head.
-Was the outcome desirable to our nation? Why or why not? What went wrong?
-Did the local population seem to want us there?
-Was the government that we supported able to stand on its own without us?
-Were the tax dollars used for training said government’s military worth it?
-Were the American lives lost in the region worth it?

Afghanistan, given the outcome, might be compared to US involvement in Iran in the 1970s.
-Was the outcome desirable to our nation? Why or why not?
-Did the local population seem to want us there?
-Was the government that we supported able to stand on its own without us?
-Were the tax dollars worth it?
-Was the creation of a nation with a government that hates us worth it?

What if we ask these same questions about Cuba? Libya? Somalia? Nicaragua? Vietnam? Do I even need to ask? South Korea seems to have been the exception to prove the rule.

All this to say: What do you think the political boundaries of Ukraine will look like in 15 years? Will the current government still be there? Will the breakaway regions still be part of Ukraine? Will the entire nation fracture into a dozen or more independent states? Will the locals, following years of American soldiers giving them the My Lai treatment, still want us there? Will a change in government reflect their desire for an end to American involvement?

I don’t know the answers to those questions exactly, but I’m much more confident on the following questions:
-Will the outcome be desirable?
-Can the government we currently support stand on its own without us, or will we need to give it perpetual support?
-Will the tax dollars be worth it?
-Will the American lives lost be worth it?

Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWijx_AgPiA


Brief Talk on the eUS

Before I leave, I'll direct you back to this article's introduction. I'll say that I don't disagree with DMJ's reasons for leaving. There's not enough people to make virtual politics fun anymore. Our system (at least what it was a year or two ago when I was more active) was created for a more populous eNation, and it doesn't scale down well. I see the eUS having shrinking pains with attrition, as opposed to growing pains. A few people do a disproportionate amount of work to benefit a much larger proportion who do little more than 2-click. I have a RL, I don't need to get involved in that. I'd rather just make media entertaining, then sit down and read the comments.

One way to make media entertaining? Well, if you've read to the end of this article, you can testify to having been entertained, even if you disagree or want to get angry at me for my stance.



Stay classy
o>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaTqrdZ_cgQ