Friction on the Fault Line: Peace between Iran and Pakistan hangs in the balance.
Desertfalcon
Quetta, Pakistan- This capital of the west Pakistani province of Balochistan used to be a safe worry free place to live, until recently. Over the past month there have been feelings of resentment between these two Asian nations. Despite the shared feelings the border provinces continue to grow, some local press releases in Pakistan have been supporting migration to the city of Quetta, the capital of a key border region in Pakistan with experienced a 33% growth rate in the month of March.
However these migrations have been occurring on the Iranian side of things as well. In the Iranian border province of Sistan and Baluchistan the city of Zahedan has also experienced a population boom. In the month of February this region underwent a six fold increase and quickly became the second most populated city in Iran behind Tehran and with three times as many citizens as Fars, the city in third.
The Pakistanis have grown their numbers to outnumber the Iranians by five to three in the border regions and greatly win the battle of military strength 2,425.4 to 1,174.45 and if they managed to take Zahedan the other regions have very small populations and could be overrun fairly quickly. That is not to say however, that a Pakistani offensive into Iran would be easy. Both regions are home to level three hospitals.
This conflict may look dim for Iran should war break out but if they can strike a mutual protection pack with a nearby power they may be able to hold out, remember mutual protection pacts are only enacted when a country is invaded. So even though Pakistan has a mutual protection pact with Indonesia, Indonesia can stay out of the war if it wishes. In fact Indonesia may benefit from this war if Pakistan gets beat up Indonesia can become the uncontested power in that area.
Today is a pivotal election day in that the elected presidents of both countries could become the next war time presidents, for Iran to be successful their next president must realize the immediate threat Pakistan posses and beef up defenses as well as striking an alliance with a nearby power. If the Pakistanis wish to win they must strike Iran when the iron is hot and not give them a chance to train up a new army. Pakistan must also take advantage of the fact that Iran has 1/3 of as dense of a population as Pakistan with an average of 134.6 people per region in Pakistan and only 46.75 in Iran.
Although out manned and out gunned, Iran should be able to hold out if they stay on the defensive, yet the big question and probably what will be the deciding factor in this conflict remains. Who will Indonesia support?
Comments
hell in middle east, I\'m sure Pakistani will move their army as soon as possible to Zahedan city of Iran and turkey can take this change to Attack Taheran capital city of Iran.
Quetta have 195 soldier with average strenght: 4.01 and Zahedan have 122 soldier with average strenght: 3.57.
I believe very hard for Iran to Defend Zahedan city. Also in my opinion, Indonesia will have no reason to help Pakistani war against iran.
As the write for the number 1 Pakistan newspaper, the Santa Destroyer, I\'d like to point out that our Lord the God Emperor Dio has no plans at this moment to crush the infidels and all of this is baseless conjecture.
Another factor in all of this is that Koroush, long-time President of Iran, is stepping down from office. Someone else is going to have to step up and take his place, which could get interesting.
I think Koroush knew it was coming and that influenced his decision to step down. To me it looked like a cowardly move to avoid the criticism of possibly being the first world leader to lose a war. I really don\'t think its a huge loss for Iran, his successor should have plenty of times to learn how to manage a country before war is implemented and none of the world leaders are experienced in this type of virtual warfare.
In fact this might help them get a new leader who could be in better standing with the leader of Pakistan. No doubt the resignation off Koroush is a mixed blessing for the Iranian people.
I agree, Koroush\'s resignation could be called into question. It\'s just that if a country has a president for so long that they trust, their next president will be awkward.
I think the awkwardness and inexperience of being the successor to a long standing president will not be much of a factor when ever the war module is released which will probably not be released for at least a couple weeks.
Good article. We need more articles like this. I\'m a tyro at strategy/war stuff like this so it\'s nice to read a little breakdown of the strength factors in countries as well as the diplomatic strategic position of those countries. Look forward to other ones Desertfalcon!